Monday Night Football Preview
Chargers +7.5 at Saints I Over/Under 51
Another week down and more injuries to sift through. Not a week goes by without a significant cog in rosters going down. We also had more positive COVID tests this week, pushing games back and shuffling schedules. We have our regularly scheduled game of the Chargers visiting the Saints, and we were supposed to have the Broncos at the Patriots, but that game has since been canceled, and the teams were given bye-weeks. The scheduling is getting tricky to keep up with, and managers need to stay on top of the news. As usual, all salaries and spread information is based off Drafkings at the time of publication.
HOW THE CHARGERS WIN
The Chargers have been bitten by the injury bug hard this year, and nothing seems to be going their way. They come into this one with a 1-3 record as they are trying to piece together a roster. They lost their starting running back, quarterback, and some key players in the secondary as well. They are averaging only 20.8 points per game, which is sixth-worst in the league. The Saints are coming into this one with a banged-up secondary of their own, and we know Herbert can sling it. If he can limit the turnovers and move the ball, the Chargers could walk away with a win here.
HOW THE SAINTS WIN
The Saints are the better all-around team, and even with their issues in the secondary, they’re capable of winning just by outsourcing the Chargers. They are putting up 30.8 points per game and have a ton of offensive firepower. I’m expecting the defense to throw all sorts of looks at the rookie quarterback to try and force him into making mistakes. They shouldn’t have an issue moving the ball against this beat-up Charger defense.
QUARTERBACK
Justin Herbert ($10,200)
The Chargers made it seem like they had no plans to start the rookie from Oregon this year, but after a botched injection to Tyrod Taylor, here we are. Justin Herbert hasn’t been awful through his first three starts throwing for 931 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions. The turnovers are concerning, but are also to be expected with a rookie quarterback. The Saints are giving up an average of 253 yards per game and have allowed 11 touchdowns to quarterbacks on the year. Herbert is proving that he can play at this level and looks to have the skill set to one day be a complete player. The issue here is whether or not they have enough firepower to keep up with the Saints.
Drew Brees ($10,400)
Just when you think he might be slowing down, he continues to impress. He has multiple touchdown throws in all but one game this year, and although he has just one 300-yard game, once Michael Thomas is back, he will start to air it out again. The Chargers are allowing an average of 274 yards per game and have allowed eight touchdowns. With the lack of pass rush the Chargers have this year; Brees should be able to stay upright and pick this weak secondary apart.
RUNNING BACKS
Joshua Kelley ($8,200), Justin Jackson ($4,400)
With Austin Ekeler going down with a hamstring injury last week and expecting to miss multiple weeks, this backfield took a major hit. Rookie Joshua Kelley has flashed impressive skill at times this year, and Justin Jackson just returned from an injury himself. Kelley has rushed 52 times for 174 yards and only one score, while Jackson, in his first game action since week one last week, ran for nine yards on six carries and caught two balls for 12 yards. Kelley will get the first crack here but will be on a short leash as he’s fumbled once in each of the last two games. The Saints are giving up an average of 113 rushing yards per game with three rushing scores and have allowed 20 receptions to running backs. One of these guys needs to step up to take the pressure off Herbert.
Alvin Kamara ($12,000), Latavius Murray ($4,800)
You don’t need me to sit here and tell you how impressive Alvin Kamara has been so far this year; the guy has started the season on fire. He’s got seven total touchdowns, and while only rushing for 236 yards, most of his production has been done in the passing game with 30 catches for 321 yards. Murray has been productive in his own right and is always a threat to vulture touchdowns. Coming off a two-touchdown game last week, he’s rushed for 184 yards on the year but is not nearly as productive in the passing game with just four catches. The Charger defense has been good against the run and is the only team that hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown this season. However, they are the sixth-worst team against receiving running backs allowing 29 receptions and two receiving touchdowns. Kamara should be instore for another busy night.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Keenan Allen ($9,400), Jalen Guyton ($4,200), Mike Williams*($5,000)
Keenan Allen is the leader of this group and gets a significant bump with Herbert now under center. Since Herbert took over, he has 41 targets in three games, more than some receivers have on the entire year. Mike Williams was out last week with a hamstring injury and is not a sure thing to suit up this week, even though he got in two limited practices towards the end of the week. Jalen Guyton has big-play ability and can take one to the house anytime he gets the ball in his hands and could factor in here if Williams sits again. The Saints are tough against opposing receivers allowing a league-best only 8 catches a game and are allowing an average of 139 yards per game, but they are coming into this one with injuries in the secondary.
Michael Thomas* ($9,600), Emmanuel Sanders ($5,600), Tre’ Quan Smith ($7,000)
Thomas was back at practice last week in a limited fashion but still missed the game we could be seeing the same pattern this week. Once again, he’s questionable for this one, and although he’s trending towards playing, the Saints have a bye in week six. They may choose just to sit him out and get him an extra week of recovery either way; it’s a situation that needs to be monitored. In his absence, Emmanuel Sanders and Smith have done a decent job picking up the slack. They sport nearly an identical stat line on the year, with Smith 14/186/2 having just two more yards than Sanders 14/182/2. With the Chargers missing two critical pieces in secondary in Derwin James and Chris Harris Jr, they’re allowing an average of 20 catches and 178 yards per game to receivers. Any of these three receivers can put up numbers against this group, picking which one is the hard part.
TIGHT END
Hunter Henry ($7,800)
With week four aside, where he saw just four targets, Henry has been serviceable this year. He’s yet to find the end zone but has 50 or more yards in three of four games on the year. The Saints have given up the third-most yards to the tight end position and have allowed five scores on the year. Henry can be a safe outlet for Herbert in this one and should see his typical 7-8 targets in this matchup.
Jared Cook* ($6,200), Josh Hill ($800)
Cook was ruled out in week four with a groin injury and may sit in this one as well despite being at practice late in the week. Josh Hill will be the beneficiary if Cook does sit. The Chargers are decent against the tight end allowing only 233 yards and three scores on the year. Even if Cook plays, neither of these guys makes for a good play this week in this matchup.
* Michael Thomas has been ruled out and will not suit up. Jared Cook at this time is expected to be active for the game.
PICK
Saints -7.5 I Under 51
LINEUP
- Keenan Allen- Captain
- Justin Herbert
- Jalen Guyton
- Alvin Kamara
- Emmanuel Sanders
