– GAME ONE –
Washington Football Team vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Steelers -6.5 I Over/Under 43.5
Week 13 has arrived, and we have two games on Monday this week. First up, we have the Washington Football team taking on the Steelers in what should be a defensive battle. In the later window, we have the Bills taking on the 49ers. As always all spread and salary information is from Draftkings. Let’s get to the breakdown and see how things will turn out.
HOW WASHINGTON WINS
The Football Team is coming off a convincing Thanksgiving win over the Cowboys and has now won two in a row. They find themselves still in contention for the NFC East, and this is a huge game for them. The Steelers are an all-around solid defense, but Alex Smith has been around for a long time and knows how to manage a game. Defensively they need to get after Big Ben and make him uncomfortable. The Football team defense is no slouch; they’re a strong unit upfront and need to make him uncomfortable.
HOW THE STEELERS WIN
They are clearing the better team here as they look to stay undefeated and continue their march to the playoffs. The Steelers defense has been intense all year, and although Bud Dupree was lost for the year last week to an ACL tear, this defense will not suffer too much. They have enough playmakers to still get after the quarterback. The Steelers should not have any trouble handling this team and will remain undefeated.
QUARTERBACK
Alex Smith ($9,000)
This is one of the great comeback stories in all of sports; the fact that Alex Smith can still walk, let alone play competitive football after all the surgeries and setbacks is amazing. He was always a game manager, but especially at this stage in his career, there just isn’t much left in the tank. In each of his last two games, he’s thrown for under 170 passing yards and has an interception in each. The Steelers allow just 218 passing yards per game and have given up 16 touchdowns on the year. Smith will check-down early and often, limiting his upside in a tough matchup.
Ben Roethlisberger ($10,600)
Big Ben is playing perhaps the best football of his career. He’s got at least one touchdown throw in every game this year and has three games with over 300 passing yards. The Washington team has allowed the fewest passing yards in the league, 2,376 on the year, and have given up 16 touchdowns. The difference here is that Ben can elevate his game to levels Smith cannot. Also, Washington plays in what is now the worst division in football, skewing their numbers somewhat. Ben should be fine in this one as he has a plethora of offensive weapons at his disposal.
RUNNING BACKS
Antonio Gibson ($10,000), JD McKissic ($5,200)
If you have been patient enough to hold Antonio Gibson this long, last week, it finally paid off as he out-snapped JD McKissic and finished with 115 rushing yards and three scores. We’re not chasing the points here, and it’s unrealistic to think he finishes a similar line in this one as the Steelers allow just 79 rushing yards per game and have allowed only six rushing scores on the year. JD McKissic meanwhile, has cooled since breaking out in week nine. In weeks nine and ten, he saw a combined 29 targets but has since seen just six in his last two games. Given the pressure the Steelers can bring, McKissic makes for an interesting play if the offensive line starts to crumble.
James Conner ($8,600), Benny Snell ($7,600)
James Conner was out last week and is no sure bet to suit up this week as he is eligible to come off the COVID list, but early reports indicate he may be out again. Snell performed decently in relief last week, carrying the ball 16 times for 60 yards, but it will be hard to gain yards this week. Washington allows only 88 rushing yards per game and has surrendered eight touchdowns on the year. The Steelers are beating teams through the air, and there’s no reason to change the formula now. It’s also a possibility that whoever is in at running back this week is asked to block more often than usual in an effort to slow down the rush.
WIDE RECEIVER
Terry McLaurin ($8,800), Steven Sims ($1,800), Cam Sims ($5,000)
The only real receiver of interest from this group is McLaurin. He has seen a steady dose of targets throughout the year and continues to produce even with being covered by top cornerbacks. The Steelers are allowing 155 receiving yards per contest and have allowed 14 touchdowns on the year. Washington is most likely going to be playing from behind in this one, so at the very least, McLaurin should be in for a busy volume type night.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8,400), Chase Claypool ($9,200), Diontae Johnson ($9,400)
This Steeler passing attack has been great this year, and right now, it’s a two-horse race between Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson. Claypool hasn’t gone back over the century mark since his week three breakout, but he’s involved every week. JuJu is having a rough year, given what everyone thought he could do heading into the year. He doesn’t have a 100-yard game and has just two games with double-digit targets. Johnson has led the team the past two games, seeing a combined 29 targets, and is becoming more than just a deep threat. Washington allows only 141 receiving yards per game and has given up seven touchdowns to the position on the year.
TIGHT END
Logan Thomas ($4,800)
Logan Thomas has been involved this year for Washington averaging 5.4 targets per game this year. He’s got four touchdowns on the year and has gone over 30 receiving yards in five games this year, but things look bleak this week against the Steelers. The Steelers have allowed 364 yards and just one touchdown to tight ends on the year.
Eric Ebron ($6,800)
There’s nothing spectacular about Ebron, especially with the talent this team has at receiver. He’s averaging six targets a game with four scores on the year. Washington has given up 539 yards and six touchdowns on the year. There is potential for Ebron in this one, especially if the Steelers decide to keep a running back in to help with the blocking.
PICK
Steelers -6.5 I Under 43.5
LINEUP
- Terry McLaurin- Captain
- Steven Sims
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Chase Claypool
- Eric Ebron
– GAME TWO –
Buffalo Bills at San Fransico 49ers
Spread: 49ers -1 I Over/Under 47
HOW THE BILLS WIN
The Bills have taken a big step forward this year and have some pretty impressive victories under their belts. The addition of Stefon Diggs has paid off in a big way, helping elevate Josh Allen’s play. They can beat you either through the air or on the ground. Defensively they’re slightly above average, they play well enough to stay in games, and when they do have a bad game, their offense bails them out. The Bills should be able to hold up defensively against this 49er offense.
HOW THE 49ers WIN
The 49ers have been hit by significant injuries all year and are just playing out the string at this point. They have beaten the Rams twice now on the year, but they aren’t going anywhere with this team as it currently sits and just trying not to lose any more players at this point. They have held up well defensively and will need a solid effort to slow down Josh Allen and the powerful Bills’ offense.
QUARTERBACK
Josh Allen ($11,600)
With touchdown throws in all but two games, Josh Allen is as solid a quarterback as anyone in the league. Throw in his rushing ability and the fact that he’s the Bills goal-line back, and you’ve got a point-producing machine. The 49ers have been good against opposing quarterbacks, allowing 218 passing yards per game and allowing 17 touchdowns on the year. Allen is matchup proof and has enough ability and offensive firepower to beat anyone in the league at this point in the year.
Nick Mullens ($10,200)
There’s not much to say about Mullens; he’s a place holder for Jimmy Garoppolo until he can make his return. He has touchdown throws in all but one game since he took over and has just one 300-yard game. The Bills are allowing 258 passing yards per game and have surrendered 16 touchdowns on the year. He did enough last week to squeak out a win against the Rams, but that doesn’t happen two weeks in a row.
RUNNING BACKS
Zack Moss ($6,600), Devin Singletary ($6,200)
This backfield finally looks to be turning as Zack Moss out-snapped Devin Singletary last week. Having clarity in a backfield is good, hoping this trend continues, and this wasn’t a one-week thing. Unfortunately, Josh Allen is still likely to snatch up most of the goal-line work, as stated earlier. The 49ers have been stout against the run allowing 72 yards per game and six touchdowns on the year. Moss may be worth the upside risk in this one, as someone will have to run the ball.
Raheem Mostert ($9,600)
Now that Mostert is healthy, he’s the only back worth considering in this game. The 49ers have had multiple backs starting at some point this season, but Mostert is by far the most talented of the bunch. In his return to action last week, he carried the ball 16 times for 43 yards and a touchdown while adding two catches for 0 yards. The Bills are allowing 104 rushing yards per game and have given up ten touchdowns on the year. Mostert could have a chance for some goal-line work in this one if the 49ers can get in close and there’s no one to vulture it away from him.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Stefon Diggs ($10,800), Cole Beasley ($6,800), Gabriel Davis ($5,800)
The Bills receiving group is led by Stefon Diggs, who has lifted this passing attack to a new level this year. He has five games with double-digit targets and three games with over 100 receiving yards. With John Brown going on IR with an ankle issue, that has opened things up for Beasley and Davis to contribute. Beasley is interesting as he’s more of a position guy who has been involved throughout the year with three 100-yard games and three scores on the year. Davis played a ton last week and finished with three grabs for 79 yards and a score. The 49ers have been tough against opposing receivers allowing just 148 yards per game and 12 scores on the year. With the defense focused on Diggs, Beasley and Davis could have an underlying opportunity to put up some points.
Deebo Samuel ($8,800), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000), Kendrick Bourne ($5,400)
The 49ers are finally getting healthy at the receiver position. Deebo Samuel returned last week and saw 13 targets making 11 grabs for 133 yards. Brandon Aiyuk is expected back this week, which should help open things up for this offense. Bourne will be the odd man out now that Nick Mullens has his two main weapons back. The Bills are allowing 155 receiving yards per game and have given up ten touchdowns on the year. Aiyuk, in his return, is an interesting play as the 49ers will probably look to get him involved in a variety of ways. Samuel is a target hog and will see a ton of volume, which translates into opportunity.
TIGHT END
Dawson Knox ($4,000)
The Bills don’t throw to the tight end often; Knox did find the end zone last week but finished with just one catch for two yards and the score. The 49ers are also good against tight ends, allowing a league-low 329 yards on the year with only two touchdowns. Knox is not a viable option this week.
Jordan Reed ($5,000)
Reed has done an adequate job filling in for superstar George Kittle. He is averaging six targets in his past two games and gets a juicy matchup against the Bills here this week. The Bills are very friendly to opposing tight ends allowing 64 yards per game, and have surrendered six touchdowns on the year. Reed is a strong consideration this week as the matchup leans in his favor.
PICK
Bills -1 I Under 47
LINEUP
- Jordan Reed- Captain
- Deebo Samuel
- Kendrick Bourne
- Zack Moss
- Cole Beasley
- Josh Allen
