Los Angeles Rams (2-1) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
- Spread: 49ers -1.5
- Over/ Under: 42.5
Breakdown
The Super Bowl champ LA Rams visit NFC West rival San Francisco 49ers. The Rams, I feel, have underperformed as a team and still find themselves at a division-leading 2-1. Cooper Kupp has kept up right where he was last year, netting 280 receiving yards and four total touchdowns through the first three weeks. Matthew Stafford has not been at his best but good enough so far to start this season. Only tossing four touchdowns compared to 5 interceptions. Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson need to get this rushing attack of the Rams going. Neither has stepped up, and they need to do so the Rams don’t have such a one-sided pass-heavy offense. The Rams defensive line should be pretty dominant in this one. Focusing on stopping the run from the 9ers is vital. It will be easier to do so without elite left tackle Trent Willams. Willams missing time is a huge loss for the 49ers offense. He is not only great in pass protection, protecting Jimmy Garoppolo’s blindside, but is great at run blocking and allowing the rusher to get to the second level. Deebo Samuel and Jeff Wilson Jr. will have to be on their game against the stout rush defense of the Rams. The 49ers defense is no slouch, though. Middle Line Backer Fred Warner has this defense playing at an elite level, giving up the least number of yards per game (through week 3).
Trends
- The Rams are 1-2 against the spread this season, including 1-0 as a road team and 1-0 in division games.
- The Over is 1-2 in Los Angeles’ games this season, including 0-1 in its road games and 0-1 in its division games.
- The 49ers are 1-2 against the spread this season, including 1-0 as a home team and 1-0 in division games.
- The Over is 0-3 in San Francisco’s games this season, including 0-1 in its home games and 0-1 in its division games.
Keys to Victory
LA Rams
Establish the run. It may be tough against the 49ers defensive line, but establishing the run will unlock this offense. The Rams defense should be able to hold the 49ers so the Rams shouldn’t be chasing too much in this game. Getting Akers and Henderson going is huge for the future of this team. If they can run efficiently, it opens up the play action and more space for Kupp and Allen Robinson.
San Francisco 49ers
Get Deebo going early. One of the best playmakers in the league needs to be used to compete against a great team like the Rams. He is open short for Jimmy G, out of the backfield, and as a deep threat. He and Jeff Wilson need to run well to make things easier on the quarterback. Manufacturing Deebo touches to get him in space is something the 49ers do well, and they need him in a big way in this matchup. He will create space in the intermediate pass game that Kittle can capitalize on.
Prop Bet Pick
Anytime Touchdown: Deebo Samuel (+120) – The total in this game is only 42.5, meaning points will be hard to come by, but if anyone is likely to score for the 49ers, you can bet it will be Deebo. Last season the 49ers all-purpose stud WR/RB combined 273 total yards and three touchdowns versus the Rams. There is no doubt in my mind that Deebo doesn’t step up in this divisional game on Monday Night Football.
DFS Plays
Rams Offense: Tyler Higbee seems to be Stafford’s second read on many plays. If Kupp is covered, he looks for his safety net, Higbee. He has 24 targets through 3 games and should see a good number of targets in this game with how good the 49ers defense is.
49ers Offense: Brandon Aiyuk could see some good looks in this matchup. Aiyuk has received eight targets in his last two games. If Ramsey is shadowing Samuel all game, that could leave Aiyuk as the main read on passing plays if Garoppolo does not want to mess with the elite cornerback.
I also like both Matt Gay and Robbie Gould as kickers in this matchup. Both teams will move the ball, but the opposing defense may bend and not break. Stopping touchdowns but allowing for field goals.
