Monday Night Football Week 1 Preview
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Spread: Buffalo Bills -2
Over/ Under: 45.5
Breakdown
Aaron Rodgers makes his Jets debut in this star-studded matchup with the Buffalo Bills in the season’s first Monday Night Football game. Even though it is only week one, this AFC East divisional game could end up being important in what seems to be one of the most competitive divisions in all of football. The Jets have a roster comprised of both young and aging elite talent. The defense has the likes of Sauce Gardner (cornerback) and Quinnen Williams (defensive tackle), both of whom are some of the best at their positions, and both are age 25 or younger. The Jets also have some of the best young offensive weapons in running back Breece Hall and wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Breece Hall had a great start to his rookie season last year until he tore his ACL in week 7. Hall is questionable to play in this matchup and if he does, he will surely be limited, but look for him to explode late in the season when he gets back to full health. The Jets also signed veteran running back Dalvin Cook this off-season to help strengthen the backfield. This Jets offense should look good with Rodgers at the helm but they face a tough challenge in week 1 against a solid Bills defense.
The Bills are still the team to beat in the AFC East with Josh Allen leading them. Allen had a good 2022 season, passing for 4,283 yards and 35 touchdowns. Stefon Diggs is poised for another good season as the Bills top receiving option. Diggs had 1,429 yards and 11 touchdowns last season; I see no reason why he shouldn’t have another great season. James Cook should be the lead halfback but will give some redzone opportunities to the newly acquired Damien Harris. Cook’s pass-catching ability will be very important to the Bills offense this season.
Keys to Victory
New York Jets: Contain Josh Allen in the pocket. Easier said than done of course but Allen is so great because of what he can do with his feet and his creativity outside of the pocket. Not only was Allen a good passer last season, but he added an extra 762 rush yards and 7 touchdowns. Making him strictly a pocket passer will limit the Bills creativity on offense and make the secondary of the Jets defensive job easier.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills pass catchers other than Diggs need to be effective. Diggs should see Sauce Gardner on him all night and help over the top from a safety. Gabe Davis is the number 2 wide receiver on the roster and needs to take a step forward if the Bills want to improve. Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid could be a huge piece for the Bills offense this season. The rookie tight end could surprise people in week 1 with how involved he is.
Prop Bet Pick
Dalvin Cook Over 11.5 receiving yards (-113)
Now this may not be the flashiest pick but I believe Dalvin will be very involved in his first game with the Jets. His running mate, Breece Hall, is coming off of a very serious injury so his utilization in his first game back will be less than normal. Cook is a good pass catcher and should see plenty of looks from Rodgers against a good defense.
Garrett Wilson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150)
Although Rodgers has chemistry with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb from Green Bay, Wilson will be top his target and that was shown throughout the preseason. Wilson was very good in his rookie season and I expect so much more from him in his sophomore season, especially with Rodgers throwing him the ball. Jets will have to throw against a solid Bills defensive line and Wilson is effective in both the open field and in the redzone.
DFS Picks (Using Fanduels Salary)
Jets Offense: Allen Lazard. Lazard looks to be the Jets #2 target in the passing game and you can put him in your lineup for just $10,000. Lazard was consistent last season but never had that boom game. I think that will be the way Lazard is this season as well, and that is sometimes all it takes, especially in DFS. Knowing a player is going to get targets and opportunities is better than relying on a player who is only in your lineup to catch 1 deep ball and if that doesn’t happen, they end up giving your team a zero.
Bills Offense: Dalton Kincaid. This is a pure upside pick. He costs only $7,000 to put in your lineup and should be involved in the offense. He was utilized as an outside receiver in the pre-season and could be the Bills #3 pass option, after Diggs and Davis. This could be the cheapest Kincaid is all season in DFS formats.
