Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) vs Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1)
- Spread: Colts -2.5
- Over/ Under: 39.5
Breakdown
The Steelers visit the Colts in this Monday Night Football matchup. We could be in for a low-scoring matchup in this game with the over/under line only set at 39. The Steelers have weapons on offense, they have just been underutilized to start the season. Running back Najee Harris has struggled this season but picked it up in the past two weeks. Receiving 20 carries in back-to-back games has proved to be effective as he has 189 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground in the past two games. Harris has recorded his two highest season rushing totals in back-to-back weeks. A great player in the passing game as well, Harris will be vital to the success of the Steeler’s offense and help manage the game for his rookie quarterback, Kenny Pickett. Pickett seems to be the quarterback of the future for the Steelers and has shown glimpses since being put into action in week 4. Pickett has not turned the ball over in each of the last two games, much better than his 9 turnovers in his first 5 games. Pickett has work to do, and his ability to distribute the ball to his wide receivers will be paramount to the Steelers success. Those receivers are Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. Johnson hasn’t quite been himself this season. He brought in 107 receptions last season and only has 51 receptions for 456 yards through 11 weeks this season. Pickens is more the deep threat while Johnson receives the underneath targets. Pickens has earned the role as the number 2 target after the Steelers traded Chase Claypool to the Bears. Pickens has big play ability and has seemed to have good chemistry with fellow rookie Kenny Pickett. Tight end Pat Freiermuth is also used in the passing game and is coming off of a game where he saw 12 targets.
The Colts under new head coach Jeff Saturday have been playing pretty well, beating the Raiders and only losing to the Eagles by one point last week. When this offense is clicking, it’s going through the running back Jonathan Taylor. Taylor hasn’t quite had the same level of success he had last season, but he has been banged up all year and injury has derailed his season, missing 3 games. Taylor is coming off 2 great games though, combining for 231 yards on the ground with 2 touchdowns. Michael Pittman Jr. is one of the most exciting young wide receivers in the league and Matt Ryan’s go-to target. Pittman has received 6 or more targets in every single game this season. Pittman’s counterpart, Parris Campbell has played well this season and has a good connection with Matt Ryan.
Keys To Victory
Steelers: Keep things simple for Kenny Pickett. The Colts have a very good defense, especially at stopping the pass. Utilizing Najee Harris in the passing game as well as the run game will be important for the Steelers to move the ball downfield. Pickett has shown he can run too, not forcing passes against a good secondary, and taking it himself on the ground could prove to be an effective way to move the chains.
Colts: Matt Ryan. Which Matt Ryan are the Colts going to get in this game? Ryan has proved he can still be an effective passer but has also turned the ball over 12 times this season. The Steelers are middle of the pack in rush defense so Taylor should still be effective, but the Steelers secondary has struggled all year. Pittman Jr. and Campbell should both have chances to make plays for this offense.
Prop Bet Pick
Parris Campbell Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+300)
This seems like great value for a receiver who has been good with Matt Ryan under center. The Steelers defense against the pass has not been very good either. Pittman Jr. could see the safety help over the top and Campbell is a deep threat that can take advantage of the space.
DFS Plays
Steelers: Pat Freiermuth. Freiermuth has seen 7 or more targets in 5 of his last 6 games. He is one of the better pass-catching tight ends and has been utilized as such. He has not scored a touchdown since week 2 but with all the targets he’s getting one is bound to happen.
Colts: Alec Pierce. Pierce is the third receiving option on this offense but the rookie has shown flashes this season of his playmaking ability. He is the least expensive of the Colts pass catchers and will be involved in the offense.
Both kickers in this matchup, Matthew Wright and Chase McLaughlin have value. Both teams have struggled scoring and the kickers could benefit from drives stalling out and kicking field goals.
