Chicago Bears (2-4) vs New England Patriots (3-3)
- Line: Patriots -7.5
- Over/ Under: 40.5
Breakdown
This isn’t the most exciting Monday night matchup we’ve seen but that doesn’t mean this game doesn’t come with storylines. Starting with the Patriots, which quarterback will be starting? Bailey Zappe has been great filling in for the injured Mac Jones so far. Zappe is coming off a great game in week 6, throwing for 309 yards and 2 touchdowns. Mac was drafted to be the starter of the Patriots for the foreseeable future but Zappe has proved his worth. Will be interesting to see in what direction Bill Belichick and the coaching staff will decide. Damien Harris has been a touchdown machine and should be suited up for this matchup. Harris, who was talked about being put on the IR, seems to have only missed week 6 and should be playing in this week 7 matchup. His backfield counterpart, Rhamondre Stevenson has been electric this season. Racking up 448 yards and 3 touchdowns rushing so far this year. Stevenson is more involved in the passing game while Harris is the bruiser. A great tandem in the backfield and the focal point of the offense. Jakobi Meyers is probably the only pass catcher to keep an eye on in this game. Meyers has posted solid stats and is the clear first option in the passing game.
The story of the Bears offense this season has been the passing game, or the lack of passing game through the first six weeks. The Bears rank dead last in the league in total pass yards. Justin Fields was selected in the first round of the 2021 draft to be the guy to lead the offense. Justin Fields has looked promising with his legs thus far. That’s where the strength of the Bears offense is, the ground game. Quarterback Justin Fields is very formidable with his legs. Both running backs David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert are very solid half-backs as well. The Bears are currently 2nd in the league in rush yards per game. Darnell Mooney is the top receiver on this team and is waiting to be unlocked in this offense.
Keys to Victory
New England Patriots: Make the Bears throw the ball. The Bears offense revolves around the rushing game, so shutting that down should make it much easier for the Patriots to take and keep control of this game. The Patriots defense is middle of the pack in rush and pass yards allowed per game. Belichick will surely have this defense in the place it needs to be to succeed. This win would give Belichick the second most wins all-time by a head coach.
Chicago Bears: Contain the run. Easier said than done but the Patriots offense roles through their two dominant running backs. The Bears defense has been susceptible to the run so far this season so this could cause major problems for them. The Patriots passing game shouldn’t scare the Bears too much. Shut down the run game and keep them from manageable second and third downs, this will help keep the game close.
Prop Bet Pick
Damien Harris Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150)
Let’s face it, one of these New England running backs is going to score. Harris tends to be the bruiser back who gets it done in the red zone and goal line so I lean toward him scoring in this game. He is coming back from injury but the Patriots would not clear him to play in this game if he was not healthy. Harris also logged a full practice on Thursday of this week. This game is going to be played in the trenches and Harris might be the best halfback in this game, at least the best at finding paydirt throughout his career.
DFS Plays
New England Offense: Tyquan Thornton. Thornton is the Patriots rookie wide receiver who could be in line for a breakout this season. He is coming back from injury and has shown good flashes in his two games, bringing in a touchdown in his last game. Meyers is the first passing option but Thornton can work himself into the number 2 role. Nelson Agholor is also questionable, if Agholor misses this game, I like Thornton even more. It’s not a flashy pick but an upside pick and that’s what it takes in DFS lineups.
Chicago Bears Offense: Khalil Herbert. Herbert has proven to be an effective back in the NFL and it’s no secret the Bears are going to run a lot. Herbert is cheaper than David Montgomery to insert into your lineup and will still see opportunities to produce.
I like Equanimeous St. Brown as a much deeper option for your lineup. Taking a shot on a Bears receiver is tough, except Mooney, and St. Brown’s size gives him the edge in the redzone compared to other receiving options in this offense.
