Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4-9-1)
- Spread: Chargers -4
- Over/ Under: 45.5
Breakdown
The Chargers need to keep winning games if they want to secure one of the wildcard playoff spots in the AFC. The Chiefs have already clinched the AFC West and both the Bengals and Ravens have clinched playoff berths so only a couple of spots remain for the Chargers. The Chargers are a very impressive team and could make waves if they make the playoffs. One of the best young quarterbacks in the league, Justin Herbert, just got his full arsenal of weapons available in the past couple of weeks. Herbert has still been solid this season, throwing for 4,019 yards and 21 touchdowns while only tossing 9 interceptions. Getting Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back healthy to this offense will take it to the next level. Allen and Williams are great compliments to each other; Allen has some of the best hands in the league and moves the chains, while Williams can take the top off the defense and is one of the best jump ball wide receivers in the league. Joshua Palmer has taken a big step forward in his second year in the league. Palmer was thrust into being the primary receiver for many weeks while Allen and Williams were hurt and Palmer filled the role well. Austin Ekeler is the engine of the offense. He leads the team in rush yards and catches. Ekeler is one of the best dual-threat running backs in the league, combining for 1,327 total yards, and 13 total touchdowns. The Chargers can clinch a playoff spot with a win against the Colts.
The Colts have had a bad season by their usual standards. Matt Ryan has struggled all season and is now being replaced by Nick Foles in this matchup and likely for the rest of the season. The Colts have a solid core but the quarterback play all season has let them down. Star running back, Jonathan Taylor was placed on IR, ending his season. Taylor had an underwhelming season after posting great numbers last year. Injuries affected him all season, missing 3 games throughout the season, but I expect him and the Colts to come back stronger next season. Michael Pittman has one of the lone bright spots on this offense. The third-year receiver has hauled in 86 receptions for 815 yards but only 2 touchdowns. Rookie receiver Alec Pierce has shown flashes this season and could be a key piece of the offense moving forward.
Keys To Victory
Chargers: Utilize all your weapons on offense. The Chargers have playmakers all over the offense. Gerald Everett has been one of the better pass-catching tight ends this season, bringing in 52 receptions for 532 yards. Not to mention the deep play ability of DeAndre Carter and Joshua Palmer. If the Colts sell out on stopping Ekeler or Allen, the Chargers utilization of their other playmakers will be vital for their ability to move the ball.
Colts: Limit the passing attack of Justin Herbert and the offense. Easier said than done but that’s how the Chargers move the ball. Ekeler is a good runner but not a player who will carry the ball 20+ times a game. In fact, Ekeler has only 3 games where he carried the ball 15 or more times. Herbert is just getting his weapons back so the Colts secondary will need to step up and make the Chargers move the ball on the ground.
Prop Bet Pick
Keenan Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+160)
Allen should see plenty of targets in this game. Since returning from injury in week 11, Allen has seen 7+ targets every game and in his last three games, he has seen 14 targets twice and 9 targets. The opportunity alone should be worth taking the shot on Allen to score in this game.
DFS Plays
Chargers: Joshua Palmer. Palmer will be the third receiver looked at in the passing game. If the Colts game plan is to take away Allen and Williams, Palmer could have his way with the defense. He has a great rapport with Herbert and has proven his worth this season. Palmer is much less costly than the primary receiving options and is worth his value. DeAndre Carter is the 4th wide receiver listed on the depth chart and should not steal too many of Palmer’s opportunities as Carter is more of a deep threat.
Colts: Chase McLaughlin. The Colts offense can move the ball but cannot always get the job done in the redzone. McLaughlin has been very solid, reaching 7 or more fantasy points in each of his last 5 games, and is coming off of a 5 field goal and 3 extra-point game.
The Colts wide receiver room is a little crowded as to who is going to be the second option. Either Parris Campbell or Alec Pierce should see opportunities in this game but this is our first time seeing Nick Foles and we may be able to gauge whom he has a better connection with going into next week.
