NFL DFS Picks: Week 17
I go back and forth on how I feel about the idea of New Year’s resolutions. Don’t get me wrong—I’m not belaboring the influx of new gym visitors even if they trickle away a few weeks along, or opposed to any of the unique and creative goals that people set in aspiration of changing their behavior in line with the calendar. If the technical jump into 2021 is what feels like the appropriate endpoint for some type of reset, by all means, take advantage of it.
My concern, however, is how that philosophy influences the remainder of the year. What if I realize in late March that I want to make more of an effort to connect with new people? Do I need to wait nine months to make that a priority? Is it less salient of an aim to have because of the specific timing? To me, overly subscribing to the notion that “I am going to reserve personal goal setting and improvements for this arbitrary point” creates a false sense of comfort that one doesn’t need to be focused on doing so anytime else. And, as much as I’ll take any opportunity to reflect, I’m perhaps more obsessed with developing constant self-improvement.
So if you (perhaps now ironically) want a New Year’s resolution from me, or a general piece of advice: rather than setting resolutions, as soon as you see something you want to do differently or better, start immediately. Why wait? You can always make adjustments along the way, or change your ultimate priorities—but given how habit-driven we are as creatures, it’s best to simply get going. If I’m rethinking my approach between every week of fantasy football and someone else is looking at it once a year, who do you think is going to make more progress in the long run? At the end of the day, every single slate thus far has led up to this one, and for as wacky as the end of the season is, recursive contemplation is going to help our Week 17 NFL DFS picks close out the regular season with a bang. Watch out, 2021.
Fellow FantasyData expert Chris Mitchell and I co-host a podcast, Slate Breakers, going into further detail on each DFS main slate. Episodes will be embedded in these preview articles once live later in the week, and for even more content, make sure to follow me on Twitter.
Quarterback
Week 17 slates are like none other; not only are there more total games (15 in total), but teams have wildly different motivations, and it’s especially challenging to forecast how things shape up with so many moving pieces—you’ll want to keep an eye on news leading up to lock as much as ever. With the Chiefs resting their stars, Lamar Jackson ($8000 on DraftKings) is the de facto most expensive QB on the slate, while Deshaun Watson ($7700) faces off against Ryan Tannehill ($7000) in the highest-totaled game (over/under 56.5). Aaron Rodgers ($7400) is playing for the #1 seed as well as his MVP run; Justin Herbert ($7100) looks in line to grab an award of his own with Rookie of the Year. Don’t sleep on Josh Allen ($7600), either.
Two more NFC North options should be kept in mind, as Kirk Cousins ($6300) rounds out a strong season and Mitch Trubisky ($5600) needs a win of his own. Daniel Jones ($5100) could be playing for a division title—Tua Tagovailoa ($5100) for a wild card berth—and although I can’t really endorse it, you should know that Mason Rudolph ($4300) is cheaper than a starter typically gets.
Favorite Plays: Lamar Jackson ($8000), Kirk Cousins ($6300), Mitch Trubisky ($5600)
Running Back
So six touchdowns for Alvin Kamara ($9500) on Christmas was cool, but speaking of that number, what about the 212 yards Derrick Henry ($9400) dropped on the Texans back in Week 6? Both are obviously fantastic plays, and as value opens up, you should be able to fit one if not both into builds of your choosing. David Montgomery ($7700) is the next available RB by salary, though I’d rather go to Jonathan Taylor ($7400); the Colts have a team total of 31.75 and are heavy favorites.
A 76% snap share and 19 touches made up the immediate usage upon return for Myles Gaskin ($6500), and Alexander Mattison ($6100) should be one of the most popular players on the slate should he get the clear start—though D’Andre Swift ($6300) warrants consideration on the opposite side. The current lead in Kyle Shanahan’s RB roulette is Jeff Wilson Jr. ($6000).
With Phillip Lindsay out, Melvin Gordon ($5700) could easily get downhill against the Raiders; Nyheim Hines ($4900) should always be kept in mind as a PPR pivot. Darrel Williams ($4800) likely sees the majority of the workload in a game the Chiefs will want to simply move past, and Dare Ogunbowale ($4500) stepped into the lead role for Jacksonville’s backfield. It’s possible that Malcolm Brown ($4300) is the lone member of the original trio healthy for a team also missing their QB.
Favorite Plays: Derrick Henry ($9400), Jonathan Taylor ($7400), Alexander Mattison ($6100), Melvin Gordon ($5700), Malcolm Brown ($4300)
Wide Receiver
Fun fact: Davante Adams ($9200) has 30 red zone targets on the year. There shouldn’t be any secrets with the other top WRs, as Calvin Ridley ($8500), Stefon Diggs ($8100), and Allen Robinson ($7700) are all clear alphas. You can also work off the popularity of their respective run games to give Justin Jefferson ($7600) and A.J. Brown ($7200) exposure, with a bonus reminder that D.K. Metcalf ($7300) gashed the 49ers earlier in the season. That’s seven beasts, for those keeping count at home, and I’m still skipping over big names.
It’s impossible to not be on board with Brandin Cooks ($6900) or Diontae Johnson ($6700) as more key weapons; D.J. Moore ($5700) still has talent that I want to be buying, though Curtis Samuel ($5300) might be the safer Panther. Marvin Jones Jr. ($5100) has downfield and touchdown upside, with the same easily said for Mike Williams ($5000) along with Michael Gallup ($5000).
It looks like Christian Kirk ($4200) might be back in the fold for the Cardinals, while Jerry Jeudy ($4200) and Laviska Shenault Jr. ($4200) will each look to close their rookie seasons with strong performances. Mecole Hardman ($4200) should step into the usual Tyreek Hill role. More will most certainly open up in regards to value, but Richie James Jr. ($3100) is my favorite punt for the moment.
Favorite Plays: Davante Adams ($9200), Brandin Cooks ($6900), Curtis Samuel ($5300), Jerry Jeudy ($4200), Richie James Jr. ($3100)
Tight End
The effective peak spot to pay up would be for Darren Waller ($7100), who’s actually at his highest salary in all of 2020. George Kittle ($6000) isn’t playing full-time, yet he doesn’t necessarily need 60 snaps to pay off. These are plus matchups for Mark Andrews ($5800) and Robert Tonyan ($5000). I’m often on board with Noah Fant ($4400) as well as Mike Gesicki ($4200), with this week no exception. Wow, isn’t it something to have a slew of genuine options here?
Evan Engram ($3700) has mysteriously dropped in cost, and Hayden Hurst ($3700) is right there with him after catching scores in back-to-back games. The usage isn’t terrible for Tyler Eifert ($2800), while sitting at a round price, you might try Cole Kmet ($3000) or Dawson Knox ($3000)—Knox has 4 or more targets in each contest over the past month.
Favorite Plays: George Kittle ($6000), Mike Gesicki ($4200), Evan Engram ($3700)
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