NFL DFS Picks: Week 9
At the end of the early window of games this Sunday, we’ll be at the exact midway point of the 2020 NFL regular season—128 contests down, 128 to go. Given it altogether wasn’t that far back that sports were shut down across the board, it’s quite the triumph for the league to be progressing with relatively few hiccups. And, while the staggering of bye weeks makes it hard to directly compare performance on a consistent halfway measurement, this landmark still always catches my eye.
That’s because it gives me a reason to reflect, and if there’s one thing other than random mental math that I’m liable to spontaneously dive into, it’s reflection. What was the decision I made, and how did I wind up making that call? What might alternative scenarios have looked like? Exploring counterfactuals is an invaluable skill for a DFS player (or sports bettor, or poker player, or investor—plug in any task that requires forecasting uncertain outcomes, especially ones of low probability), since we live in a world where an early play or two can change the way an entire slate winds up. If you only think about the most likely way a game plays out—rather than the entire array of outcomes, with varying likelihoods—you’re going to get stuck focusing on far too narrow a range of possibilities.
On the macro scale, too, it’s useful to take any excuse you can to step back. How has my process been so far this season? Am I weighing the right information and constructing sound lineups? Might I be getting lucky or unlucky in certain spots? I’ll be considering each of these questions and more around the halving of the year, with the goal of getting better—of continuing to develop as a DFS player and content creator. One of the great things about playing fantasy football is the near-instant feedback it provides, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take time to think more generally. Of course, we technically haven’t reached that 128-game mark just yet, and you’re still here for my NFL DFS Picks—let’s hammer in our best so that we’re at the top of the leaderboards come that to-the-minute midway point.
As a reminder, I’ve created and will be hosting a new DFS podcast, Slate Breakers, with fellow FantasyData expert Chris Mitchell throughout the season. Episodes will be embedded in these preview articles upon release later in the week, but you can also follow me on Twitter for an immediate notification when a show drops.
Quarterback
The Chiefs just kept on throwing en route to a 26-point victory last Sunday, so why stop now? Patrick Mahomes ($8100 on DraftKings) therefore keeps his top mark, and Kansas City’s implied total of 31.75 is higher than any other team on this slate by three full points. A mediocre spot for Kyler Murray ($7800) has me less interested than the matchup between Russell Wilson ($7600) and Josh Allen ($7000), which itself sports the highest over/under of the week at 55.0. Deshaun Watson ($7100) sits in between but will be playing against a Jags squad that wants to slow the pace down; Lamar Jackson ($6900) still has wheels and is at his lowest price of 2020.
One or more of the aforementioned names is going to blow up, so chasing serious upside in tournaments will be a priority in the ensuing range from Justin Herbert ($6800)—who certainly has it—to pocket passers like Matthew Stafford ($6600) and Derek Carr ($5700), who need elite touchdown efficiency to have similar potential. I’m not opposed to giving Tua Tagovailoa ($5500) a go, and Drew Lock ($5200) intrigues me after throwing 40+ passes each in back-to-back contests. Jake Luton ($4900) takes the place of Gardner Minshew, who put up nearly 24 DraftKings points against the Texans a few weeks back.
Favorite Plays: Russell Wilson ($7600), Josh Allen ($7000), Derek Carr ($5700)
Running Back
It sounds like we’ll finally see the return of Christian McCaffrey ($8500), and if the reports are encouraging, I’d like to be overweight on the field. That might not be too difficult, since Dalvin Cook ($8200) will deservedly see plenty of ownership after putting up a monster day; he gets the golden opportunity of bullying another division rival who can’t stop the run. You could pivot down and save salary by heading to James Robinson ($7000), James Conner ($6900), or Chase Edmonds ($6800); each of these guys has multi-TD potential on a given day and should command the bulk of their backfield’s touches.
Josh Jacobs ($6300) is probably a bit cheap for the scenarios when the Raiders control a game, yet comes with a lower floor than you’d like for cash. There’s then another string of sequential options; Antonio Gibson ($5800) is favored off a bye, David Montgomery ($5700) sees a great workload despite lacking talent, and David Johnson ($5600) feels like a decent bet to finish somewhere in the teens. The hype around D’Andre Swift ($5000) has quieted after his touch count dropped, but 62% of snaps in Week 8 was a career high and the leverage off of Dalvin is valuable. It looks like Justin Jackson ($4900) is the Chargers’ lead back for the time being.
The injury to Myles Gaskin immediately makes Matt Breida ($4000) a reasonable option, and beyond the Dolphins, monitoring practice reports remains an important piece for a few different teams. Keep an eye on Chris Carson ($6500) as a possible returnee, though if not, DeeJay Dallas ($5000) likely remains the play. The Ravens RBs are all bunched together, with J.K. Dobbins ($4900) my preferred option if Mark Ingram ($4800) misses another week. I’m also undecided on the Chiefs duo but would lean Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6100) as the bounce-back in a favorable matchup.
Favorite Plays: Dalvin Cook ($8200), James Robinson ($7000), Chase Edmonds ($6800), D’Andre Swift ($5000), Matt Breida ($4000)
Wide Receiver
I maintain my stance that DeAndre Hopkins ($8200) typically doesn’t have the very highest ceiling of any WR on a slate even if his floor is as good as anyone’s, and thus, I’m continuing to cycle around players both at the top and below. In Week 7, I said Tyler Lockett ($6800) was becoming too cheap relative to D.K. Metcalf ($7800); last week, I said that Metcalf would offer the ownership edge but that we’d be jumping back and forth. That seems to make it a Lockett week again, if you’re keeping track. Stefon Diggs ($7400) is your obvious choice from the other side, and Julio Jones ($7200) becomes a smash play if Calvin Ridley ($7000) is out.
Allen Robinson ($6900) should dominate on the perimeter against the Titans; Will Fuller ($6800) and Brandin Cooks ($5500) both work as pieces from the Texans offense. I’d say D.J. Chark Jr. ($5200) is too cheap despite the QB adjustment, while Marvin Jones Jr. ($5100) should step into a bigger role. Any of the Pittsburgh WRs can work, but I’d most aggressively go after the cheapest piece—Diontae Johnson ($5000). The dud from Nelson Agholor ($4700) can be chalked up to weather, and Jerry Jeudy ($4700) is another AFC West receiving option that you could include in a stack, though the TEs command serious target shares for each of these teams also.
I’d love to see John Brown ($4600) fly under the radar, and Darnell Mooney ($3900) was one of the punts that came through this past Sunday. If you’re trying to dig even deeper, Demarcus Robinson ($3200) has a nontrivial amount of equity on an elite offense. For that matter, David Moore ($3100) is in the same type of situation, albeit with a much lower route share. And it’s far back up in price, but I really shouldn’t shy away from Keenan Allen ($7000) just because his salary finally was moved to where it should’ve been weeks ago. He’s still a target hog.
Favorite Plays: Julio Jones ($7200), Tyler Lockett ($6800), Brandin Cooks ($5500), John Brown ($4600), Demarcus Robinson ($3200)
Tight End
I don’t think I’ll be getting all the way up to Travis Kelce ($7200) in cash this week, but he’s well in play for tournaments, and I’ll never fault you for playing him. The savings for Darren Waller ($5800) and T.J. Hockenson ($5100) make them more palatable—to me, Hockenson seems like he’s teetering on breaking out. I’m buying low on Mark Andrews ($4800) and Mike Gesicki ($4400) in larger fields. Early looks seem decent on a handful of guys around the 4K barrier, in fact—I’d be fine mixing in Evan Engram ($4300), Hayden Hurst ($4100), Hunter Henry ($4000), and Jonnu Smith ($3900).
The usage (at least in routes, if not in targets) will always keep the light on with Logan Thomas ($3700), and it appears Jordan Akins ($3300) will return for this game. Irv Smith Jr. ($2900) is viable if you’re scripting the Vikings to be playing from behind. Unless something opens up, though, I’ll probably be heaviest on the listings from the prior paragraph.
Favorite Plays: Darren Waller ($5800), T.J. Hockenson ($5100), Hunter Henry ($4000)
