NFL DFS Picks
We are now four weeks into the season. Data is starting to become relevant and balance out. This is where educated DFS players get their edge. The main slate this week is going to provide some unique lineups. The Seahawks and Rams play on Thursday night meaning no Russell Wilson or Cooper Kupp. Sunday night gives us the Bills and Chiefs which means there will be no Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, or Travis Kelce to roster. Time to take advantage of this. Each week Fantasy Data will bring you 20 players that we like for the Draftkings Sunday main slate. Let us get right to it.
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Studs to Splurge For
Here we will highlight two players at each position that are in the top-five of their respective position and are deemed worthy of “paying up” for in your lineup. Please note these players will likely be highly owned so if you are looking to differentiate, you will want to pull more players from the next two sections.
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray | $8000 | 5.5% | SF @ ARI
Kyler Murray simply cannot be stopped at this point. He was still able to put up 22.62 points against a very good Los Angeles Rams defense in Week 4. Despite “low” point totals of 22+ the past two weeks, Murray is still averaging a slate best 29.5 DK points and gets the 30th ranked San Francisco 49ers in Week 5. At this point, the dynamic signal-caller is pretty much a lock to return 3x value on a weekly basis. Plug him in and rest assured you will get quality production here.
Dak Prescott | $6900 | 8.8% | NYG @ DAL
The price here seems a bit low. Dak Prescott is averaging 22.0 DK points a week so it is fair. However, there is an 8.48-point performance weighted in this average. Dak is coming off of a 27.02-point performance against what was thought to be a good Carolina defense. On deck are the division-rival Giants. In nine games versus the Giants, Prescott is averaging 19.7 points. He should easily eclipse that mark in Week 4 at home. A stack with CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard (Zeke is nursing an injury) could be optimal.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry | $9000 | 15.2% | TEN @ JAX
Since Week 1 when Derrick Henry only had 17 carries, he has since averaged 32 carries per game in the three weeks following. The targets have decreased the past two weeks, but that has not stopped Henry from paying off value. On deck is the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars who rank 27th against the position in DK. The wideouts are still ailing in Tennessee and there is no reason to rush them into significant action this week. This is a lock and load situation.
Christian McCaffrey | $8700 | N/A% | PHI @ CAR
This is probably the cheapest we will see CMC all season long. While it is early in the week, all indications are that he looked good at practice on Wednesday and is on track to play. The Eagles do not present much of a challenge for the versatile running back and you may be able to roster him at a super low ownership percentage. Not much needs to be said about his abilities. This could be THE leverage play of the week.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams | $8200 | 29.7% | GB @ CIN
We see a $300 increase in the salary for Davante Adams this week. This should not scare us off the All-Pro wideout. The increase is interesting considering Adams put up just 12.4 DK points against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4. The Green Bay Packers are projected to score 27.00 points in Week 5. Look for a bounce-back week from Adams and something that looks more like the 34.2 DK points he put up against the 49ers in Week 3.
D.J. Moore | $7500 | 0.6% | PHI @ CAR
The projected ownership is a little surprising for D.J. Moore this week. We get that the matchup looks tough (PHI is 8th against WR) but the volume simply cannot be ignored here. Since Week 1 when Moore saw eight targets, he has seen 11, 12, and 12 respectively. In each of those games, the stud wideout has put up 20+ points. At $7500, we just need him to hit the average to return value. That should not be an issue here.
Tight End
Darren Waller | $7300 | 2.5% | CHI @ LV
Darren Waller has hit double-digit points every week this season. There are not any other tight ends on this slate that can make this claim. The matchup is not great but at just 2.5% ownership, this could be another leverage play. Waller has seen exactly seven targets the past three weeks after seeing 19 in Week 1. The Raiders are projected to score 25.00 points and the Bears offense seems to be revitalized so there could be some points to be had here.
Sleepers to Separate From the Pack
Up next we give you some players to help differentiate your lineup from the masses and give you the edge you need to compete in some of the bigger tournaments. Just like the section above, we highlight two players at each position except now instead of studs, you get players that are expected to be less than 10% owned on the main slate.
Quarterbacks
Jacoby Brissett | $5200 | 0.2% | MIA @ TB
Laugh all you want but hear us out. Brissett has put up 20.3 and 15.76 respectively. On deck is a matchup with a high-powered Tampa offense. The Dolphins will have to throw early and often. Rostering Brissett opens a ton of options for you at other positions and a stack with Jaylen Waddle ($4800) gives you the freedom to spend up for some of the players mentioned in the open.
Daniel Jones | $6000 | 1.1% | NYG @ DAL
We talked about Dak Prescott in the open. The opposing quarterback has an equal opportunity to return value here. Jones is averaging the 5th most points at the position on the slate yet he is priced down as the 12th QB. DFS is all about value. In a game that should shoot out, you can certainly play a naked Daniel Jones and feel confident he will get you 18 points and the 3x return you need with a potential to get 4x or 5x value.
Running Backs
Kareem Hunt | $5800 | 0.2% | CLE @ LAC
Hunt is a top-10 RB from a DK point per game perspective on this slate. At just $5800, he may be the value of the slate. While he touches the ball less than the more expensive Nick Chubb, he still outscores him by 1.2 points per game despite costing $900 less. We preach value here. Hunt is the value of the week regardless of the tough matchup.
James Robinson | $6000 | 6.9% | TEN @ JAX
After two subpar performances, James Robinson has 20 plus points in consecutive weeks. The Tennessee Titans are up next for the struggling Jaguars. With the season-ending injury to DJ Chark, look for them to rely on the run game a bit more going forward. Robinson had a season-high 18 carries in Week 4. Look for that workload to continue to grow and he should be able to pay off his $6k salary easily against Titan’s 14th ranked rush defense.
Wide Receiver
Terry McLaurin | $7400 | 0.6% | NO @ WAS
Terry McLaurin is quickly becoming the favorite target for quarterback Taylor Heinicke. Over the past three contests, the Ohio State grad has seen 34 targets and put up over 30 DK points in two of three of those games. The matchup against Marcus Lattimore is not ideal, but the volume should still be there, and the Washington Football Team will likely have to put up some points to keep pace. At less than 1% owned, this is a place where you can leverage large GPPs.
Jaylen Waddle | $4800 | 1.3% |
There was a decline in the number of targets for Jaylen Waddle in Week 3. After seeing a season and career-high 13 targets in Week 3, Waddle saw just four targets in Week 4. That should change in a matchup against the high-powered Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa is 31st against the position and the game has a total of 48.00. The Dolphins are going to have to throw early and often and pairing Waddle with Brissett gives you an inexpensive stack and allows you to pay up at other positions.
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson | $5500 | 4.4% | DET @ MIN
T.J. Hockenson is coming off back-to-back poor performances. Keep in mind, these games were against the Baltimore Ravens and Chicago Bears. Before those games, the young tight end had 20+ points in his first two games of the season. Look for him to get back on track against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5. The Vikings rank 12th against the position and the game has a total of 49.00 meaning points will be scored.
Hunter Henry | $3700 | 0.4% | NE @ HOU
Hunter Henry finally found pay dirt in Week 4 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He is also averaging five targets per game over his last three and seems to have found a rhythm with rookie quarterback Mac Jones. At just $3700, we only need 11 points to hit value. The Houston Texans are the league-worst against the tight end position. Look for Henry to find the end zone for a second straight week and pay off his meager salary.
Fantasy Data Favorites
In this section, we will give you one play from each position for the week that we like the most. This will be a player that likely will give you a high upside at a lower cost than their counterparts and also come with a low ownership projection. Here you go!
Quarterback
Daniel Jones | $6000 | 0.4% | NYG @ DAL
Danny Dimes put up 30.78 DK points last week and his salary only went up $200. On the season, he is averaging 24.8 points, more than four times his salary. A trip to AT & T stadium is on the docket for Week 5 and points will have to be scored in bunches for the G-men to stay competitive. The icing on the cake for this play is that the Cowboys rank 31st against the position. Jones is the 5th best quarterback on the slate in terms of points per game yet has the 12th highest salary at the position. This play screams value.
Running Back
Damien Williams | $5600 | 1.1% | CHI @ LV
With David Montgomery out four to five weeks, Damien Williams will be taking over the Chicago backfield. Williams was a sneaky good signing for the Bears as an insurance policy and it should pay off for them in Week 5. Williams is a capable back and put up 15 DK points in Week 4 after Montgomery went down. The Raiders just got shredded by Austin Ekeler on Monday night and the matchup is a good one. At just 1.1% ownership, Williams is a solid pivot to help differentiate your lineup.
Wide Receiver
Hunter Renfrow | $4900 | 0.2% | CHI @ LV
If you are looking for a correlation play for Damien Williams, then Hunter Renfrow is you man. Renfrow is a model of consistency, putting up double-digit points in every game this season. For the year he is averaging 14.7 DK points per game and has not seen less than six targets all year. In fact, he is averaging 7.5 targets per game. The Bears rank 28th against the position and the Raiders have an implied total of 25.00 points. You can be assured the shifty slot receiver will be heavily involved early and often.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz | $4400 | 0.4% | NYG @ DAL
Dalton Schultz saw his salary rise $1000 this week but is still a value at just $4400. On the season, he is averaging 14.5 DK points per game and has put up over 17 points in consecutive weeks, including a 26.0-point performance in Week 3 against the Philadelphia Eagles. The New York Giants rank 26th against the position and the young tight end has seen 15 targets over the past two weeks. DK seems to be slow to adjust his salary to the recent performance. Take advantage of it his week.
Summing It All Up
As we all know, football is unpredictable, we make these picks using the data available to us at fantasydata.com and try to help our readers make educated, thoughtful decisions when creating their DK lineup. If you find this helpful or have any comments, be sure to notate them below. Thank you for reading.
