Noah Fant Fantasy
Noah Fant was selected by the Denver Broncos with the 20th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. The Broncos have been desperate at the tight end position so taking Fant seemed like a no-brainer in the first round. Entering the 2019 season, there is a strong narrative that Fant should see work right away and be at worst the tight end leading the passing game. The current tight end depth chart consists of Jeff Heuerman, Troy Fumagalli, Jake Butt, and Austin Fort. With new offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello coming from San Francisco the Broncos are hoping that he can do with Fant what he did with former Iowa tight end George Kittle in 2018. Bringing the Shanahan offensive scheme to Denver should be extremely fruitful for Fant and with quarterback Joe Flacco under center as he should see a plethora of targets in the passing game.
So what will his fantasy impact be in 2019? What can Fant contribute as a receiver in year one, and how will his impact be felt by the offensive pieces already set in Denver? Let’s dive into the situation that Fant finds himself in for 2019.
The Situation
One player that could see taking a significant hit in production because of Fant is Phillip Lindsay. There is a slight negative correlation between tight end receptions and running back receptions. This because those targets often occupy the same space on the field. For example, we saw James White soar in the passing game when Rob Gronkowski missed time. I don’t think that was a coincidence. Or that Kareem Hunt averaged three targets per game in an offense that featured arguably the best tight end in Travis Kelce in 2018. Last season with no significant tight end to note on the roster the Denver Broncos ranked 14th in tight end targets and percentage of targets to the tight end position. They ranked 11th in total targets to the RB and 15th in percentage of total targets to the RB. With Fant added expect tight end targets to increase with RB target to decrease.
The reason behind that is because of the tendencies of quarterback Joe Flacco to heavily target the tight end position. According to the Denver Post, every single season he had while part of the Ravens from 2008-2018, Flacco had at least one tight end finish among the top five in catches on the team and seven seasons a tight end finished among the top three in catches on the team. In 2017, Ben Watson ranked 11th in the NFL in targets at tight end with Baltimore. In 2016, Dennis Pitta ranked eighth in the NFL in targets at tight end (18% total target share). And via Graham Barfield on Twitter: Over the last three years, Joe Flacco has targeted a tight end on 23% of his passes, the fifth-highest rate in the league during this span. Only Wentz (32%), Alex Smith (31%), Luck (26%), and Mariota (26%) are higher. The landing spot for the rookie is extremely ideal from a potential volume standpoint.
Noah Fant: “I would argue I’m in the best position for a tight end in this draft.” No doubt; he’s referenced how much Joe Flacco uses the TEs.
— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) April 26, 2019
Another interesting fact regarding Flacco’s targets to tight ends brings us back into 2017. Via ESPN Stats & Info, Flacco had the best completion percentage and second most attempts to tight ends last season, but his yards per attempt ranked 26th. In 2018, Weeks 1-9 while Flacco was the starter in Baltimore we saw similar statistics. That year, Flacco targeted the tight end position 74 times for 53 receptions and 564 yards with a 71.6% completion percentage along with 7.6 yards per attempt. Keep in mind at the beginning of the season Flacco had more passing attempts than anybody else in the NFL (379). 19.5% of his total attempts were going to the tight end position. Does the addition of Fant project higher yards per attempt or completion percentage for Flacco? Well, Fant’s reception percentage in 2018 was 65% which ranked seventh overall in the 2019 class. However, his yards per target in his career at Iowa was 8.27 yards per target. And if you just consider his last season it was 8.65 yards per target. So there’s a good chance that Fant helps increases Flacco’s overall yards per attempt. In a recent interview, Flacco mentioned the following regarding the tight end position in the Broncos offense.
“When you look at him, he’s a really athletic guy. I think he is underrated on the line of scrimmage in terms of what he can do and getting his hands on people. He can obviously run. The tight end in this offense, I think can be a big-time player if he can run and get a feel for how we run a couple of routes that we have in.”
Adding a dynamic tight end like Fant adds another wrinkle to the offense that will surely aid Flacco in an intriguing new offense under Scangarello.
Passing Volume Under Rich Scangarello
What can we expect to see from a total offensive philosophy in terms of passing volume? We know that Scangrello is coming from San Franciso where he worked as the quarterback’s coach under Kyle Shanahan from 2017-2018. So from a projection standpoint, (assuming Scangrello sticks to his Shanahan coaching tree roots) passing volume could be in the ballpark of 570 attempts (average last two seasons). That sum is less than Flacco’s per game average over the last three seasons. The 41-game sample size saw an average of 624 attempts. Using the mean to create a projection at approximately 600 attempts. That also represents a slight uptick from last season where the Broncos averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game (589 total). With a 600 passing attempt projection that comes to 37.5 pass attempts per game. From a projection output, what can we expect from Fant specifically in an offense with 600 passing attempts?
Noah Fant Projection
Based on these projections for an 18% target share, Fant could see upwards to 108 targets. With a 65.5% catch rate and 7.94 yards per target for Fant, that projects out to 70 receptions for 857 receiving yards. As for touchdowns, its a much harder projection. But if we see 22 passing touchdowns from the offense on 2019, three touchdowns seems likely with the touchdown volume for the Broncos most likely ranking in the bottom half of the NFL with Flacco. Something to keep in mind in regards to his touchdown projection relative to tight end fantasy finish. Over the past three seasons in PPR 27 top-ten tight end have had at least four receiving touchdowns. Delanie Walker (2017), Greg Olsen (2016), and Dennis Pitta (2016) with Flacco at quarterback were the exceptions.
The Verdict
Only time will tell who will be Flacco’s favorite target in the passing game in 2019. And considering the fact that Drew Lock is waiting in the wings, targets could drastically change in the offense if and when a quarterback change is made. But even so, Lock’s tight end in college Albert Okwuegbunam over the past two seasons ranked second in the entire NCCA in touchdown receptions (17) just on behind Fant (18).
As of right now, Fant’s chances of emerging as the primary pass option are about as good as about anybody on the roster. As an athlete, Fant’s metrics are practically off the charts ranking in the 96th percentile or better in every workout metric via PlayerProfiler.com. Then combining his breakout age (85th percentile) and college dominator rating (82nd percentile) it’s hard to not get excited about Fant’s potential even as a rookie. That being said we have seen the learning curve for rookie tight ends take some time, so if in the first four weeks Fant does not breakout do not panic. Keep an eye on his target share and with steady targets, fantasy production should follow regardless of whoever is playing under center.
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