Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 2
It’s difficult not to overreact to Week 1 production. Fantasy football is a long season with plenty of opportunities. We’ve seen players produce in Week 1 who wind up busting in lineups during the following weeks. This works both ways. New coaching schemes, rosters, and injuries play a massive role in determining whether or not a player will be a reliable option in fantasy football.
My week 1 starts were a mixed bag. Travis Etienne and Josh Jacobs rounded out the bottom of the RB3s. Etienne averaged 11.8 YPC but only had four carries, while Jacobs was held to only one target. Wide receivers Gabe Davis (WR14), Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR11), and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (WR25) had much better performances in PPR formats. Pat Freiermuth also enjoyed a nice outing against a tough Bengals defense, finishing as the TE7 with 5-75 on ten targets. Tom Brady was a whiff. The 45-year-old quarterback had a tough night against the Dallas defense but he did toss a touchdown to Mike Evans to manage some success.
Let’s dive into Week 2 matchups to determine which players are safe to start and which players to sit.
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Start ‘EM
Antonio Gibson (RB) Washington Commanders
Carson Wentz targeted Antonio Gibson frequently during their 28-22 win against Jacksonville last week. The third-year running back has posted consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and his receptions have increasingly spiked. He carried 14 times for 58 yards but Gibson’s appeal lies in his role as a receiver out of the backfield. The former collegiate wideout has reliable hands and out-snapped J.D. McKissic by over 20 percent, which included a 19.5 percent target share. Gibson secured seven of eight targets for 72 receiving yards, elevating him to RB10 in Week 1. He draws another good matchup against Detroit, who surrendered the sixth-most (36.7) fantasy points to Philadelphia’s running backs. Lock Gibson into your lineups for another productive week.
Josh Jacobs (RB) Las Vegas Raiders
I was big on Josh Jacobs last week but his inability to find the end zone, plus the lack of targets, sent him plummeting to a low RB3 finish. He still churned out 5.7 YPC and was the clear-cut RB1 under new head coach, Josh McDaniels. Brandon Bolden is questionable and barely saw more passing work, so he should not be a concern. The most enticing factor behind plugging Jacobs into lineups is his efficiency, combined with a plus matchup against a bad Arizona run defense. The Cardinals allowed 42.5 fantasy points to Kansas City’s running backs, including rookie Isiah Pacheco, who went 12-62-1. Jacobs is only in his fourth year in the league but will face the Cardinals for the first time in his career. He could easily wind up with two touchdowns. Don’t let Week 1 scare you away. Plug Jacobs into lineups with confidence.
Miles Sanders (RB) Philadelphia Eagles
The infamous touchdown drought is officially over for Miles Sanders. He went 13-96-1 against Detroit last week and also caught both of his targets for an additional nine receiving yards. Running behind a talented offensive line helps a lot, but so does opportunity. Sanders played 51.9 percent of the snap count, vastly outpacing Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. Gainwell appears to be head coach Nick Sirianni’s preferred prospect on passing downs, but Sanders will be fed goal-line opportunities. Jalen Hurts is always a threat to vulture a goal-line score but if Sanders continues with over seven YPC, he possesses a high floor that warrants a start in fantasy lineups. Minnesota’s run defense was not great against Green Bay, allowing 30.7 fantasy points to both Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Expect Sanders to ball out with plenty of opportunities to score against the Vikings during Monday Night Football.
Jerry Jeudy (WR) Denver Broncos
Denver started its season with a bad loss against a gritty Seattle Seahawks team. Jerry Jeudy was the star of the Broncos’ offense, turning on the afterburners to hit a 67-yard touchdown reception. Jeudy and Courtland Sutton each saw 17.1 percent of the target share, but Seattle’s defense bottled them up for most of the night outside of Jeudy’s touchdown. Houston’s secondary was porous against the Colts in Week 1, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points (47) and allowing Michael Pittman Jr. to finish with 9-121-1. Russell Wilson has a talented arm, especially in a plus-matchup, so expect his trust in Jeudy to grow after some big moments to open the season. I faded Jeudy last week but he is definitely in a smash spot at home against the Texans.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown proved to be Jared Goff’s favorite target in Week 1, soaking up 12 targets and turning that opportunity into 8-64-1. The second-year wideout finished as the WR11 in PPR formats and led all Detroit wideouts in snap percentage and target share. A 32.4 percent target share is especially good, as it indicates St. Brown will continue to be a dominant presence within a talented Lions offense. He will get another good matchup at home in Week 2 against the Washington Commanders’ secondary, which allowed 40.2 fantasy points to Jaguars wideouts last weekend. DJ Chark is a talent in his own right but he played eight percent fewer snaps and saw four fewer targets, which included a drop. Start St. Brown and watch the points pile up.
Adam Thielen (WR) Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson stole the show in Week 1 but the matchup against Philadelphia’s secondary means there is room for the entire Minnesota offense to feast. The Eagles are a run-centric offense but they move the ball quickly, especially with the addition of A.J. Brown. A bad Vikings run defense means Kirk Cousins will have to mount quick-scoring drives. A lot of the attention will be placed on Jefferson, likely from Darius Slay, which means Thielen will have an opportunity to produce against softer coverage. He only caught three of four targets for 36 yards against Green Bay last week but Thielen was productive against the Eagles in 2019, going 6-57-1 on eight targets. Granted, that was without Jefferson, but Thielen is still a reliable target who has built-in continuity with Cousins. Fire him up as a low-risk WR2 with a high ceiling.
Dallas Goedert (TE) Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts had a couple of players that he hyper-targeted, including Dallas Goedert. He only saw four targets against Detroit but he caught three receptions for 60 yards. Even better, Goedert averaged 15 yards per target, meaning he’ll be streaking down the seam against a Minnesota defense that struggles to defend tight ends. In 2019, Goedert was still catching passes from Carson Wentz and had Doug Pederson, but he went 5-48 on eight targets. Tight end is a volatile position in fantasy. Follow the consistency. Goedert’s chemistry with Hurts will help and it’s a top-ten matchup.
Matthew Stafford (QB) Los Angeles Rams
How much concern should we designate regarding Matthew Stafford’s elbow injury? He rehabbed during the offseason but there were a few throws that sailed or got tipped at the line of scrimmage, resulting in a horrendous three-interception outing. The good news is that Stafford gets a bounce-back matchup in SoFi stadium against a vulnerable Atlanta Falcons pass defense. Stafford’s last matchup against the Falcons occurred back in 2017 when he went 25-45 for 264 yards and a touchdown. The biggest difference was the lack of turnovers. Expect a clean game from the reigning Super Bowl MVP against the seventh-best matchup for fantasy quarterbacks.
Sit ‘EM
Cam Akers (RB) Los Angeles Rams
Fantasy managers were clamoring about the upside Cam Akers offers within the Rams’ offense. Unfortunately, his 2022 debut fell flat. Akers goosed in lineups, earning three carries and producing zero total yards. What’s more concerning is Darrell Henderson’s 82 percent snap share, which led to 13 carries for 47 yards and five receptions for 26 receiving yards. Even Sean McVay expressed concern about Akers’ lack of effort and explosiveness. Yes, it was against a very talented Buffalo front-seven, but rolling Akers into fantasy lineups cannot happen until he proves that he’s capable of providing burst through running lanes and picking up rushers in pass protection. Avoid Akers at all costs, especially against a good Falcons run defense in Week 2.
DK Metcalf (WR) Seattle Seahawks
Seattle shocked the league with an upset win over Russell Wilson and the Broncos. DK Metcalf was not part of the equation, as the Broncos’ defense shuttered him to seven receptions for 36 yards. While leading the Seahawks’ wide receiving corps in targets (7) was a bright spot, Metcalf gets another challenging matchup against the division-rival San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers held Chicago’s offense to 25.9 fantasy points, albeit in sloppy conditions. It looks to be San Francisco’s strength, plus, can we continue relying on Geno Smith to perform as he did in front of an emotional home crowd? Doubtful. Fade Metcalf in Week 2 but expect big things from him when the schedule softens.
T.J. Hockenson (TE) Detroit Lions
Jared Goff favored his wideouts in Week 1, resulting in T.J. Hockenson finishing with four receptions for 38 yards on seven targets. He’s not been in a smash spot often in four years and head coach Dan Campbell utilizes him as a blocker more than a receiver. Washington is stout against opposing tight ends, holding Evan Engram and Dan Arnold to a total of 6.8 fantasy points in Week 1. Hockenson’s last matchup against the Commanders in 2020 was horrific, going 2-13 on four targets. Fade Hockenson until a better matchup arrives.
Trey Lance (QB) San Francisco 49ers
Trey Lance has been the subject of much offseason chatter, particularly due to his underwhelming performances in training camp. It’s tough to get a gauge on Lance after he played in a monsoon during a 19-10 loss against the Bears last weekend. I would be more inclined to start Lance if he was getting a softer matchup outside of the division but the Seahawks’ defense remains a gritty unit. They surrendered 340 yards to Russell Wilson but just one touchdown, bending but not breaking. Lance may do more running with Elijah Mitchell ruled out, preserving a floor, but he won’t perform well overall against Pete Carroll’s defense behind a bad offensive line. Sit Lance and wait for him to build his resumé.
