Tee Higgins Fantasy 2024
Last season, the Cincinnati Bengals went into Week 1 with hopes of a championship, but a bevy of defensive injuries, including a season-ending wrist injury to Joe Burrow, upended any chance of lifting the Lombardi Trophy. Once again, there are high hopes for a Bengals team that, on paper, is one of the most talented and electric offenses in the league. The question is will they be able to get back to their winning ways or will they once again disappoint? But perhaps an even bigger question for fantasy managers is “What should we do about Tee Higgins?” Higgins was one of the Bengals’ biggest underperformers of the 2023-2024 season. So should fantasy football managers steer clear of him coming off a down year or is he in store for a bounce-back campaign? Let’s look at Higgins’ outlook and decide where, and if, he should be a target come draft day.
The first three seasons of Higgins’ career were both consistent and productive. Over that span, Higgins averaged 109 targets, 72 receptions, 1,009 yards, and six touchdowns. Those are solid numbers and led to finishes of WR28, WR24, and WR18 in PPR formats. With steady improvement each year, Higgins saw his stock begin to rise and entered the 2023-2024 season with an ADP of #30 overall and #14 among wide receivers. Managers placed him solidly in the mid-WR2 range. Unfortunately, Higgins did not come through for his managers. Instead, he played just 12 games (five without Burrow), and finished with 42 receptions, 656 yards, and five touchdowns, while landing outside the top 50 at the position. That’s not ideal for a player being drafted in the middle of the second round. Now Higgins has an ADP of #55 overall and #27 among wide receivers. This is the lowest his draft stock has been since his rookie season. So, is it time to capitalize on the added value? Let’s see.
Entering the season, this could be Higgins’ last dance in Cincinnati. After much speculation regarding a long-term deal for Higgins, the two sides were unable to get one done. Now Higgins is the only player without a multi-year deal among the eight NFL players designated as franchise players this offseason. There were reports that Higgins requested a trade but now he remains a Bengal and will most likely enter free agency following the season. His situation could impact fantasy. On the one hand, Higgins will be looking to prove that he is worth a big contract in the hopes that a team will take notice and sign him to a long-term deal. But on the other hand, with the knowledge that he’s gone after this season, at some point avoiding injury will have to be a consideration because that could make his stock plummet.
Still, in 2024, Higgins is firmly entrenched as the Bengals’ WR2, behind Ja’Marr Chase, and with teams focusing on Chase, he could have plenty of opportunities to produce. Last year was a season of career lows for Higgins, including a 17.9% target share and 1.73 yards per route run but that feels like an outlier, and with Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon out, Higgins could take on a heavier load of Cincinnati’s pass-heavy offense. Chase certainly caps his ceiling, but Higgins has already had success in two seasons with Chase. In the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 seasons, Higgins had back-to-back seasons of 1,000-plus yards and 6-plus touchdowns. This was with Chase’s 2,501 yards and 22 touchdowns in that two-season span. It was also with Boyd garnering over 80 targets in each season, including a season where Mixon had 75 targets. Those numbers are encouraging.
Higgins feels like the definition of value. He is a player with clear WR2 upside, and if Burrow returns to form it’s not crazy to think he could flirt with low-end WR1 numbers. Yet, he’s being drafted as a WR3 in the fifth round. If you can land a player who has had over 100 targets, over 1,000 yards, and at least six touchdowns in three of his four seasons, do it.
