Thursday Night Football
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs -9.5 | Over 54.5
The NFL season is back! We start the year with a playoff rematch between the champions, Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans. The last time we watched this game, The Houston Texans were up 24-0 before the Chiefs scored six straight touchdowns leading to a 51-31 final score. After that game, Bill O’Brien shipped out his leading wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins, brought in Brandin Cooks and David Johnson. The Texans also signed Deshaun Watson to a 4-year, $156 million contract extension. Not to be outdone, The Chiefs signed Patrick Mahomes to a record-breaking 10-year deal worth up to $503 million, while keeping their championship core in tack and adding the stellar rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire to the roster.
The two teams have met each other 12 times (including two postseason games), with the Houston Texans winning five games and the Kansas City Chiefs winning seven games. Since Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson(2017) were drafted, the Chiefs are 2-1 against the Houston Texans. Those three games had a total of 71 average points per game between the two teams(final scores totaled 82,55,76 in those three meetings). With the over/under for the game at 54.5, according to Vegas, we should expect another high scoring affair. Which team comes out on top in this season debut? Let’s break down how each team should attack this game.
How The Chiefs Will Win
The formula for the Chief’s success during their Super Bowl run was to rely on the arm of Patrick Mahomes to connect with his talent receiver core. This will be the key to their success Thursday night again with a Texans CB room that doesn’t have a single-player ranked within the top 25 in the league. Expect a plethora of options at the disposal of Mahomes; however, once they get in the Redzone, Mahomes will look for his newly resigned superstar tight end Travis Kelce. Last season Mahomes and Kelce connected for the most touchdowns inside the 20 with four.
On defense, the Cheif’s will be looking at an opportunistic approach with their game plan. Last year Deshaun Watson had his highest turnover rate with 12 interceptions. Without his safety blanket of DeAndre Hopkins and a chaotic offseason with his new pieces, this team could be out of sync to begin the season.
How The Texans Will Win
For the Texans to be the victor in this matchup against the defending Super Bowl champions, they must keep the high flying Chiefs offense off the field. This means putting the ball in the hands of the newly acquired running back, David Johnson. This strategy paid off for Bill O’Brien last year, October 13th, when the Texans beat the Chiefs, and Carlos Hyde accumulated 26 carries for 116 yards and one touchdown. With the Chief defensive weakness being that they funnel targets to the running back, this game will have a positive game script for David Johnson.
On defense, the Texans will have to apply a bend don’t break approach to handling the Super Bowl MVP, Mahomes. They will have to game plan JJ Watt and the rest of his defensive crew to hit to Mahomes early and often to throw a wrench in Andy Reid’s scheme.
So how will this rematch break down for fantasy purposes? Let’s break it down by position.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes
The cost for Patrick Mahomes on the showdown (not as your captain) is $12,600. This week I have him as my number 1 quarterback in my rankings against the Texans D(who we will break down later). The last time these teams matches up, Mahomes went off for 221 yards and five touchdowns(with 0 INT). He completed 65% of his passes, and the Houston Texans didn’t have an answer on how to stop the Chiefs QB. Expect more of the same on Thursday Night Football as Mahomes now has Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the backfield and his top four targets still in his lineup( Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman).
With The Texans at the bottom of the league last year in passing defense(269 yards again). You throw Mahomes in your DFS Showdown play without a second thought.
Deshaun Watson
Watson held his own in this playoff battle last year as he threw for 388 yards and two touchdowns in that game. He completed 59% of his passes as well. This year his team looks different than that game. Will Fuller V will play, Brandin Cooks is now on the roster, David Johnson is in his backfield, and the most significant absence will be Hopkins as he moved on to Arizona. Can Watson keep stride in this high pace battle?
I believe he can and will. He will be facing a stout defense that finished 13th in the league in passing yards against(226 yards per game). As a fantasy option, I think Deshaun will have to make some magic this with his feet. He had 37 yards last year, and a touchdown in the playoff matchup, and I expect more of the same this year without his red zone safety blanket of DeAndre Hopkins. Watson will cost you $11,800(not in the captain role) and should also be in your DFS play this week.
Running Backs
Chiefs Running Backs
Texans Running Backs
The Chief’s weakness on defense is the running game, as they were one spot behind Houston overall at 25(124 yards per game).
As spoken about earlier, The Texans game plan should be keeping Mahomes and company off the field. This would state a high volume game for David Johnson. David Johnson will cost you $7,600 this week and is the only play I am considering within this backfield.
Wide Receivers
Chiefs Wide Receivers
This is a dangerous duo when it comes to the NFL. They all have blasting speed and can get behind your defense in the blink of an eye. The Texans were the 12th worst against wide receivers in fantasy last year giving up 375 points to wide receivers. This is a game where you want to play the Chief wide receivers. Tyreek Hill is Expensive this week as he comes in at $10,400. However, throwing Sammy Watkins($5,800) and Mecole Hardman($5,200) in your lineup will allow you a piece of this high flying offense to pair with Mahomes while saving you a few dollars.
Texans Wide Receiver Core
The big names in this wide receiver core (Fuller & Cooks) are very “Boom/Bust”. These are talented players who are often injured throughout the season. So do you take the shot? I believe you do with one of your players- Will Fuller V($8,000). Fuller is also my captain play in DFS this week which will price him at ($12,000). When Fuller is healthy and paired with Watson, sparks fly. Fuller has 14 touchdowns in just 28 games since the Texans drafted Deshaun Watson. Week 1, I expect Watson to use Fuller as a safety net while bringing Cooks into the offense slowly due to the chaotic COVID offseason training.
I wouldn’t throw any darts this week at the rest of the Texans. The wait and see approach is your best bet to see how this revamped offense performs with their weapons.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce is a superstar tight end, however, his price point for this game, $9,200, has me steering away from him and looking elsewhere for my lineup.
Darren Fells
Tons of receptions for Fells? No. Tons of yard for Fells? Nope. a decent chance at a touchdown now that Hopkins isn’t in town? Yup. This would be my cheaper DFS player($4,400) for the week as Watson feels out his team in week one and leans on the comfort of players he has played with before in the red zone.
Free DFS Plays For Head to Head Games
- Will Fuller V (captain) $12,000
- Darren Fells $4,400
- Harrison Butker $3,800
- Mecole Hardman $5,200
- Patrick Mahomes $12,600
- Deshaun Watson $11,800
Not a fan of my lineup? Well, use FantasyData’s NFL Optimizer and generate one yourself a winning lineup using our expert projections.
Prediction
The Kansas City Cheifs win a close battle against the Houston Texans 31-24.
