Tennessee at Jacksonville
Thursday night football kicks off week three of the NFL season as the Titans (1-1) travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars (0-2). It’s a crucial game for both teams as they take on an AFC South opponent in a division that has no clear front runner with the retirement of Andrew Luck and week one injury to Nick Foles. The Jags are the only winless team in the division so this feels like a must-win game at home if they want to contend at all this year, otherwise, they may decide to rebuild and trade away the disgruntled Jalen Ramsey.
The Titans are 1.5 point road favorites in this game which carries a 40-point Vegas total, the lowest of any week three games. Thursday night games are usually lower scoring games that favor defense to begin with since offenses only have a few days of practice to prepare after a Sunday game and this game could be ugly as neither of these offenses is very good. We’ve already seen a few low scoring affairs on Thursday nights this season and I expect more of the same from these two teams tonight in what should be a physical game.
The Jaguars have the 30th ranked defense after two weeks but we have to consider that their ranking is somewhat deflated due to the bludgeoning they took at the hands of the Chiefs week 1. Their defense isn’t that bad and the Titans offense was just “okay” last week against the Colts after blowing the doors off Cleveland week one. I think this game stays close and will be a “grind-it-out” type game from start to finish.
Captain Slot
I like using a running back or pass catcher in my captain slot. Quarterbacks rarely end up the highest scoring players on an offense unless they run a touchdown in on their own or spread the ball around to many different receivers. While Mariota is a threat to score with his legs, this Titans passing attack isn’t really dynamic enough for me to want to play him in the captain slot. I’m going to be targeting the workhorse backs on both teams as captains instead.
Derrick Henry (15.9k)
With the Titans being favorites here and the Jags struggling on defense, Henry has a great shot at being the highest-scoring player in this game. He’s had 21 and 18 touches in his first two games with 5 of those being receptions. He’s gone over 80 yards rushing in both games, too. He’s a great short-yardage back who is going to get the goal line carries and his involvement in the passing game even if it has only been a few catches a game is a nice bonus. If you think Tennessee controls this game, then pairing Henry with the Tennessee defense is an absolute must.
Leonard Fournette (14.7k)
Delanie Walker (12.3k)
I am a sucker for Delanie Walker. He’s old Mr. Reliable and one of Mariota’s favorite red-zone targets. He’s great at working the middle of the field and moving the chains and he’s the only Titans pass catcher that I am all that interested in rostering.
D.J. Chark (11.4k)
Chark has been a pleasant surprise for Jacksonville and has outplayed Dede Westbrook, who many thought would be the number one option in this Jags passing game. He had a huge week one and then backed it up with 7 more catches last week and another score. Stacking him with Minshew is a combination that I going to have some exposure to in tournaments.
Flex Plays
I definitely want as much correlation as possible in my lineups so if my captain is a receiver, I am usually going to stack him with his quarterback. Since I am more interested in the running games of both of these teams, then I am going to look to pair running backs with their team’s defenses for some correlation and target both teams’ kicking games as well.
Marcus Mariota (10k)
Mariota has been solid, but not spectacular for Tennessee this season, tossing four touchdowns without any picks and completing a high percentage (63.5%) of his throws. He’s always a threat to run one in with his legs, too, and has already scrambled for 56 yards on 8 carries this season. There’s enough value to fit him with Walker and one of the workhouse backs and of the two quarterbacks in this game, I prefer him over Minshew.
Gardner Minshew (9.2k)
Minshew has been very efficient as a passer so far but has had to throw more than the Jaguars would probably have liked since his team has been playing from behind in both of their games this season. He showed some nice wheels last week, scrambling for 56 yards and leading the team in rushing. If you think the Titans end up getting out to a lead in this one, then pairing Minshew with Chark or another pass catcher and running them with Henry on the other side makes a lot of sense.
Titans D/ST (5.2k) | Jaguars D/ST (3.8k)
Both of these defenses are in play for me as I think both offenses in this game are fairly average at best. Remember, defenses usually have the upper hand on Thursday night going on short rest while offenses tend to struggle. The Jags are a good bit cheaper and should come at lower ownership, too, based on their poor statistical rankings thus far.
Cairo Santos (3.6k) | Josh Lambo (3.4k)
I love playing kickers in showdown contests. They are always super cheap and have upside if their teams are able to move the ball but fail to convert in the red zone. I like correlating kickers with defenses when I can and yes, you absolutely can use both kickers in the same lineup. If the game ends up 12-9 with all field goals and no touchdowns you’re going to win all the money.
Final Thoughts
In showdown contests, we are trying to predict game flow and this really feels like a slugfest in the making. Instead of stacking up opposing quarterbacks and their receivers, my gut instinct is to play running backs, defenses, and kickers. A 40-point total might still be too high as this game feels like it could end up 13-10. If you are making multiple lineups, try to anticipate a few different game scripts with your plays and alternate some lineups that are Jacksonville heavy with some that are Tennessee heavy. Don’t play quarterbacks against opposing defenses or running backs from the same team, but just about every other combination is on the table. Good luck and thanks for reading my Thursday night breakdown here at FantasyData, where we offer the best tools for season-long fantasy football and NFL DFS!
