Fantasy Football ADP Price Check
Heading into the 2024 fantasy football season, there are many questions that only time can answer. Over the next couple of months, we should get some clarity as reports out of camp begin to put depth charts into focus, and preseason games give us a glimpse of players we are unsure of and a chance to see rookies take snaps against live competition. While ADP three months before the regular season tends not to mean that much it is still fair to look at where players are being taken in real drafts and try to illuminate those who are being taken a bit too high as well as those who are being undervalued. For the sake of this article, I will be looking at a few players I believe are currently being taken too late in drafts and therefore present a great opportunity for fantasy managers to find value. That is, as long as their ADP holds.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
I know. Saying that a rookie QB is undervalued seems foolish, but I think it’s appropriate in the case of Jayden Daniels.
Daniels is currently ranked pick No. 101 overall and as the QB16. With a dual-threat skill set, Daniels is a potential nightmare for opposing defenses. Defensive coordinators could find it very difficult to game plan for Daniels. As the No. 2 pick in this year’s NFL Draft, Daniels is also one of the few rookie signal callers who will be the Day 1 starter. While on the surface, the Commanders’ skill players may leave something to be desired, veterans like Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, Brian Robinson, and Jahan Dotson could make this a more formidable unit than most expect.
Under offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who knows how to scheme plays for a mobile quarterback because of his time in Arizona, the rushing yards could really pile up. Obviously, a concern with Daniels is durability. With a slender build, Daniels may be unable to make it through an entire season unscathed, but if he does, his rushing upside alone pushes him into QB1 territory and could make him a draft-day steal at his current ADP.
I’ve been playing a lot of Best Ball this offseason, so my mindset is more about finding single-game studs late in drafts lately, and I feel Daniels is a value pick right now.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Depending on the format, Pacheco finished anywhere from RB16-RB18 in 2023, while only playing in 14 games. Pacheco could have finished higher if he had been able to play an entire season. The Chiefs did nothing to address the position in this year’s NFL Draft, paving the way for Pacheco to once again lead this backfield, which comes with the potential of 250+ touches. Health will be a concern with Pacheco. Pacheco runs with a bruising style that leads to a lot of intense contact with a higher likelihood of injury. But if he can continue to carve out a significant piece of the pass-catching duties (he had 44 receptions in 2023) he could push for top-10 status even if he does miss a game or two. Even though his ADP of RB13 may seem fair, he’s going No. 40 overall, making Pacheco a great value as a player fantasy managers can draft as an RB2 who has RB1 upside.
Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers
There must be something in the water because I’m choosing another rookie as a value pick this year. Jonathon Brooks was the first running back selected in the 2024 NFL Draft (46th overall.) That is a major investment to make in a running back for a team that is looking for playmakers. Last season, Chuba Hubbard performed admirably, but it is not hard to see a path for Brooks to eventually run away with the starting job. The only major obstacle standing in his way is an ACL tear he suffered last November. With the ACL recovery as well as the normal developmental time that all rookies need, there is a fair amount of risk to drafting Brooks. But with an ADP of No. 88 overall (RB28) he’s being drafted in the eighth round making him a depth piece or low-end flex at best. But as a superior pass catcher and overall talent to Hubbard, if his recovery goes well and he’s able to adapt to the speed of the NFL you are getting a player you can stash on your bench who could turn into a solid RB2.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Throughout his career, Mike Evans has been the epitome of consistency. In a changing landscape that sees teams leaning on spreading the ball around, it’s surprising that Evans’ high floor isn’t more sought after. His ADP sits at No. 29 overall and as the 18th WR off the board, so it seems that fantasy managers have already forgotten his WR4 finish from just a season ago. Evans has surpassed 1,000 yards receiving every season since entering the league and has scored 13 or more touchdowns in three of the past four seasons. Perhaps the fact that he has averaged just 75 receptions over the last five seasons is the reason for him being somewhat overlooked, but the drop has been too steep for my liking. Evans recently signed a two-year, $52 million deal with Tampa Bay, which should help him maintain his place atop the Buccaneers depth chart as the 1A to Chris Godwin’s 1B. A WR2 with WR1 upside in the third round makes Evans a strong value.
Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints
After a season with an unimpressive 37 receptions, 368 yards, four touchdowns, and a TE24 finish, you may wonder why I would include Juwan Johnson on a list of players that are a draft day value. Especially when other under-the-radar tight ends may seem more deserving. I completely understand. 2023 was supposed to be a breakout campaign, and Johnson was underwhelmed, so why am I optimistic about coming into 2024? First of all, Johnson finished on a high note last season, scoring 11 or more half-PPR fantasy points in his last three fantasy weeks, including a 20-point effort in the fantasy championship. The Saints also do not have much in the way of proven talent at wide receiver, with Chris Olave being the most enticing, but even he has yet to live up to his potential. Even if Olave does take a step forward in 2024, there should be an opportunity for someone else to emerge. Johnson is still just 27 years old and is only two seasons removed from finishing as the overall TE8. If the end of last season left an impression on the coaching staff we could see Johnson become a bigger part of the offense. With a 15th-round ADP (178th overall, TE22) Johnson is the perfect TE2 with TE1 upside if things fall right.
