This offseason has seen quite the carousel of running back changes. I’ve already written about a few of these, including Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, and D’Andre Swift. But they are not the only players to change environments in free agency. Several new teams find themselves with new weapons, while others have to figure out how they will replace the production of their previous stars. One of these stars is former Chargers RB Austin Ekeler who has signed a two-year, $11.43 million deal with the Commanders. The deal also comes with a $3 million signing bonus and the opportunity to earn another $1.5 million in incentives in year one. In conjunction with letting Ekeler go, Chargers signed Gus Edwards to a two-year, $6.5 million contract with $3.375 million guaranteed. We won’t know how these moves will work out for their respective teams until we see the teams in action this upcoming season, but we are free to examine the signings and evaluate the fantasy fallout.
Austin Ekeler Fantasy Asset
Historically, Ekeler has been one of the most valuable running backs in fantasy. Still, after two seasons in which he averaged over 21 fantasy points per game, his production fell off a cliff last year. His 13.2 points per game was his lowest total since 2018. On top of that, Ekeler averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, a career low, and saw his target share drop to 14.7%. This will lead a lot of fantasy managers to believe Ekeler is “washed” or “cooked,” especially at 29 years old. But I’m not convinced it’s time to write Ekeler off just yet. Although Ekeler had a down season in 2023, he could still average 4.6 yards per touch, and his 4.02 yards created per touch was inside the top 10. Unfortunately, he failed to create the explosive plays we had grown accustomed to seeing from him. But he was dealing with a lingering ankle injury, which could account for some, if not most, of this lack of production. I’m not saying that anyone should project Ekeler to reach 20+ points a game in 2024, however, he could be in a great position to improve upon last year’s numbers. As one of the most prolific pass-catchers in the game at the position, he should have plenty of opportunity to score points in a variety of ways. Let’s take a look at what this may mean for the fantasy production of Ekeler and those around him in 2024.
Is Austin Ekeler a Good Fit for the Commanders
Immediately upon hearing the news that Ekeler would be heading to Washington and that Antonio Gibson would be heading to the Patriots, it became clear what role the team had in mind for Ekeler. Ekeler may not be quite the player he has been in the past but he’s still capable of producing, particularly in the passing game. The question remains how big the role will be for Ekeler. The main goal of any team is to win. I don’t think it would surprise anyone if teammate Brian Robinson out-carried Ekeler, but Robinson’s role in the passing game was minimal at best, and it’s unlikely to increase now that they have one of the best pass-catching RBs to ever play the game. That’s how I see Ekeler’s role in 2024. He will be the primary pass-catcher out of the backfield and receive 5-10 carries per game. It may seem odd to predict that Ekeler wouldn’t be the primary ball carrier on his new team, but we already saw the Chargers try to take some of the load off of the aging RB by rotating in other players. None of these players were especially effective, but the Commanders have an RB in Robinson who has proven to be successful, and I expect them to continue to use him. But still, 5-10 carries could amount to 15-18 total touches a game, and with that type of workload, he would still be a valuable fantasy asset. There is a reality where Ekeler bounces back in a big way, revitalized by the new situation he finds himself in, and it becomes impossible to keep him off the field. But it’s far more likely that Robinson and Ekeler become a solid one-two punch with clearly defined roles. Ekeler may not be the clear-cut RB1 he used to be, but he still has enough value to be drafted as a solid RB2 with upside.
What This Means for Brian Robinson
At first glance, the acquisition of Ekeler may seem odd. Given all the holes on their roster, the Commanders didn’t necessarily need an RB, but there’s no question that Ekeler is an upgrade over Gibson. It’s also easy to assume that Ekeler’s presence will destroy Robinson’s fantasy value, but I think that’s far from the case. The truth is, Robinson’s role shouldn’t be much different than it was in 2023. He’s the better option on first and second downs as well as near the goal line, both are roles he had last season. He won’t have much to speak of in the passing game, but his role in that capacity was already negligible, so that shouldn’t hurt his value. It’s also unclear at this point who will be under center for The Commanders. After sending Sam Howell to the Seahawks, Marcus Mariota is the best QB on the roster. With the No. 2 pick in this year’s NFL Draft, The Commanders will almost certainly draft a rookie QB. But whether the day one starter is the rookie or Mariota, they will try to take some pressure off of their new signal caller by relying a bit more on the run game and calling plays that will get the ball out of their hands quickly. This helps both Ekeler and Robinson. It may be hard to believe, but I still envision Robinson as the 1A to Ekeler’s 1B in this backfield. Much of Robinson’s fantasy value in 2023 depended on his goal-line attempts, and he received 62% of the team’s carries inside the five. He should still have that role. While the three-down role many were envisioning for Robinson won’t happen, that’s probably a blessing in disguise as it will be easier for him to remain healthy. For now, you can consider Robinson a low-end RB2 with touchdown upside.
Conclusion
While Ekeler was a bit of a fantasy disappointment in 2023, his new home isn’t the worst situation for him. A Kliff Kingsbury-led offense could mean a lot of pass-catching opportunities for Ekeler. He is an obvious upgrade over Gibson in terms of receiving ability which will give whoever is under center a solid weapon. There is some potential for a bounce-back season for Ekeler, but this is likely to be an RBBC approach that will cap the ceiling of both Ekeler and Robinson. But with clearly defined roles both players will be useful for fantasy purposes. Robinson will be used on first and second down, as well as the preferred short-yardage and goal-line back. Ekeler, on the other hand, will be used primarily on third down, along with obvious passing plays. The bulk of the carries should go to Robinson, but Ekeler will cut into this role enough to bolster his value while hurting Robinson’s. Neither is an RB1 for fantasy purposes going into the 2024 season, yet both have the potential to sneak into the top-12. Robinson with his touchdown upside and Ekeler with his receiving ability. If The Commanders’ offense takes a step forward and they have their version of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, you’ll be very happy. But the safer bet is that both Ekeler and Robinson will fall in the RB2 range and the format in which you play will go a long way in helping you decide which player to draft.
