Advanced Fantasy Metrics: Week 4 True Catch Report

Advanced Fantasy Metrics: True Catch Rate

Hard to believe that September is already wrapping up and we’re now entering the second month of the NFL season. The one positive to come out of the fast-moving clock is that we now have enough data under our belts where stats are starting to look less like anomalies and more like trends. 

With three games for each wide receiver now complete, Fantasy Data’s True Catch Rate is starting to tell a complete picture of which wideouts have done the best job catching the ball and which ones are struggling. By eliminating throwaways and uncatchable passes, True Catch Rate is a truer measure of which players have the best hands.

Using the advanced metrics available at Fantasy Data, here are the wide receivers that are struggling to make the most of their opportunities and the players that stand out as having the NFL’s best hands per True Catch Rate.

The League’s Least Efficient Receivers

If you’ve been playing fantasy football long enough, surely you’ve bought into this finally being the year that Devante Parker lives up to his promise. But right on schedule, here’s Parker once again botching another opportunity. Granted, the Dolphins are a mess, but Parker has only caught 6-of-14 (42.9%) catchable targets and committed a pair of drops. Parker has only caught 3-of-10 contested catches and ranks 60th with 1.31 yards per route run. Safe to say, Parker’s long overdue breakout isn’t happening with the 2019 Dolphins- or ever. Ditto for Jakeem Grant, who has dropped a pair of passes and is averaging a miniscule 2.7 yards per target. Prestion Williams seems to be the only Miami pass catcher capable of overcoming Miami’s horrific quarterback play.

Mike Williams hasn’t been fully healthy but he’s also dropped a pair of balls and has a lowly 57.1% True Catch Rate through three games. Some of that has to do with Williams being targeted so deep downfield, but he’s really struggled in contested-catch situations after excelling in that area as a rookie. Once he and Philip Rivers start connecting on those throws and in the red zone, Williams will reclaim his weekly WR2/3 status.

We can’t blame quarterbacking on Dede Westbrook‘s poor TCR showing, as we’ll see later. Westbrook is averaging a lowly 4.0 yards per target figure, which is the third-lowest average in football for all wideouts with eight or more targets. Westbrook has also been plagued by drops and a lowly 7.2 yards per catch average. There were some flashes of big-play ability last season, but Westbrook probably needs to be left out of fantasy lineups until he gets out of this rut. 

Jarvis Landry has also been struggling to make an impact out of the slot. Landry has only caught 10-of-23 targets on the season as Baker Mayfield enters Week 4 as the QB25. Until Mayfield shows dramatic improvements, which seems inevitable after his record-setting rookie showing, Landry is hard to trust as anything more than a volume-based WR4 in PPR leagues. 

Kenny Golladay is actually performing well from a fantasy perspective, but it could be a lot better. Golladay has corralled 14-of-21 catchable passes, including 3-of-4 contested catches. But Golladay also ranks 58th in yards per catch because opponents are giving him such a large cushion and taking away his downfield opportunities. 

The new run-first approach in Minnesota is having a huge negative impact on Stefon Diggs‘s fantasy value, but Diggs also has only caught half of his 12 targets and has been held under 40 receiving yards in two out of the Vikings’ three games. We can hope that eventually, that successful ground game will lead to downfield play-action opportunities for Diggs, but until that happens, fantasy leaguers are just going to have to take their lumps. 

John Ross opened the 2019 campaign with a pair of 100-yard showings but came back to earth against a talented Buffalo secondary. Ross only caught 2-of-6 targets against the Bills and committed his league-worst fourth drop of the season. He has a good bounce-back spot on Monday in Pittsburgh, but Ross is due for a huge decline in targets once A.J. Green returns to the lineup. 

Mack Hollins has predictably scuffled with increased chances but his role will all but disappear once DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are fully healthy. Once that happens, Hollins can safely be dropped from all redraft rosters.

Julio Jones enters Week 4 as the No. 2 fantasy wideout so there’s no reason to be too alarmed by his poor True Catch Rate performance. Jones has played far better than he did in Atlanta’s Week 1 loss and has a favorable upcoming schedule. Most of his woes can be attributed to Matt Ryan, who has thrown a league-high six interceptions so far.

True Catch Rate Leaders

What were we saying about quarterback play not being to blame for Dede Westbrook’s poor showing? D.J. Chark has thrived with Gardner Minshew under center, hauling in all 15 catchable targets and scoring in each of Jacksonville’s three games. Chark ranks ninth in the NFL with a healthy 18.5 yards per catch average and is seventh overall with 277 receiving yards. Chark looks like a legitimate NFL weapon who was held back by Jacksonville’s stagnant offense during his 2018 rookie campaign. 

We are down to just eight NFL wideouts who have a perfect 100% True Catch Rate and Oakland’s Tyrell Williams might be the best of the bunch. Williams has caught all 14 of his catchable targets, including 4-of-4 contested catches. After the failed Antonio Brown experiment, Williams was thrust into No. 1 receiver duties and has delivered the goods. 

Like the Jaguars, the Vikings also have contrasting results among their starting wideouts. While Stefon Diggs has struggled mightily, Adam Thielen is thriving to the tune of a perfect TCR score. Thielen has caught all 11 catchable passes so far in 2019, with three total touchdowns. While Diggs is struggling to make any impact short or deep, Thielen’s 2.88 yards per route figure ranks 12th in the league. Up next, Minnesota has a tough matchup in Chicago, but Thielen warrants every-week WR1 status regardless of opponent. 

Keke Coutee attracted all the preseason hype as a potential breakout candidate behind DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, but Bill O’Brien’s ill-advised trade with Miami resulted in Kenny Stills‘s ascension to fantasy relevance in Houston. Stills has hauled in 9-of-12 targets while ranking sixth in the NFL averaging 13.7 yards per target. Stills’ elite speed has also resulted in 4.43 yards per route run, which trails only DeSean Jackson and Michael Gallup. 

Cody Latimer has caught all six of his catchable targets but isn’t making a big fantasy impact. Latimer is only averaging 8 yards per target and actually sat out Week 3 with a concussion. Once Golden Tate returns to the lineup in Week 5, there won’t be enough targets left behind Tate, Sterling Shepard, Wayne Gallman, and Evan Engram for Latimer to be anything more than a desperation WR5 with an extremely limited ceiling.

Corey Davis might have a perfect True Catch Rate, but he’s entering droppable status in redraft leagues. Davis has played 77% of Tennessee’s snaps but has only logged six receptions for 82 yards in three games. No receiving corps has fewer points than the Titans, who have combined to catch 27 passes for 413 yards and no scores in three games. 

Ryan Switzer caught 6-of-6 targets in Pittsburgh’s opener but has one catch for zero yards since. In fact, Switzer didn’t even log a single snap in Week 3 when the Steelers reshuffled their receiving corps by promoting Diontae Johnson and James Washington into the starting lineup. Switzer is well off the fantasy radar. 

Cooper Kupp is one drop away from a perfect True Catch Rate score but otherwise is having a fantastic season. Kupp has the most catches (23) and targets (31) of any of the top-12 wideouts on this list. Showing no ill-effects from last year’s torn ACL, Kupp should be the best of an impressive trio of LA Rams’ wideouts. 

Oddly, D.J. Moore‘s one game with a touchdown came from the game in which he had his lowest volume. After absorbing 24 targets from Cam Newton, Moore only saw two looks from Kyle Allen. Fortunately, Moore’s one catch against the Cardinals resulted in a 52-yard touchdown and Allen’s 4-score outing looked promising for a Panthers’ offense that looked sluggish with a less-than-healthy Newton under center. 

Now that the Patriots have also abandoned the Antonio Brown experiment, Phillip Dorsett should be the main benefactor. After logging just 35 snaps in Week 2, Dorsett jumped back up to 71 against the Jets while snagging 6-of-7 targets for 53 yards and his third TD grab of the season. Dorsett has not dropped a pass yet in 2019 and offers weekly WR3/4 value in a potent New England offense.