Advanced Fantasy Metrics: True Catch Rate
And then, there was one. As we’ve been tracking the NFL’s most efficient pass-catchers by studying FantasyData’s True Catch Rate, we are now down to just one wide receiver remaining with an unblemished, 100% score. There are a lot of factors at play here, but by eliminating tipped passes, un-catchable throws, and throwaway passes, True Catch Rate gives a more complete story of which wideouts have the best hands.
It also tells us which receivers are the least successful with their given opportunities. Knowing which players are the most effective can help us predict future success and make better decisions with our weekly fantasy football lineups.
Now that we are onto October, here are the league’s least and most effective wide receivers using FantasyData’s advanced efficiency metrics report for wide receivers True Catch Rate.
The League’s Least Efficient Receivers
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | TGT | REC | YDS | TD | CUSHION | SEPARATION | TRUE CATCH RATE | CONTESTED TGT | CONTEST REC | CONTEST% | YDS/REC | YDS/TGT | YDS/ROUTE | DROP | DROP% |
| 1 | DeVante Parker | MIA | 24 | 10 | 201 | 1 | 3.85 | 1.46 | 55.6 % | 10 | 3 | 30.0 % | 20.1 | 8.4 | 1.65 | 2 | 8.3 % |
| 2 | Mike Williams | LAC | 15 | 8 | 157 | 0 | 3.11 | 0.8 | 57.1 % | 5 | 1 | 20.0 % | 19.6 | 10.5 | 1.83 | 2 | 13.3 % |
| 3 | John Ross | CIN | 32 | 16 | 328 | 3 | 4.23 | 1.66 | 64.0 % | 4 | 1 | 25.0 % | 20.5 | 10.2 | 2.54 | 5 | 15.6 % |
| 4 | Kenny Golladay | DET | 36 | 19 | 243 | 4 | 4.88 | 0.89 | 65.5 % | 6 | 3 | 50.0 % | 12.8 | 6.8 | 1.87 | 2 | 5.6 % |
| 5 | D.K. Metcalf | SEA | 23 | 10 | 223 | 1 | 4.74 | 0.96 | 66.7 % | 8 | 4 | 50.0 % | 22.3 | 9.7 | 1.99 | 1 | 4.3 % |
| 5 | Alshon Jeffery | PHI | 15 | 8 | 87 | 2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 66.7 % | 4 | 0 | 0.0 % | 10.9 | 5.8 | 1.48 | 1 | 6.7 % |
| 5 | Dontrelle Inman | LAC | 13 | 8 | 132 | 0 | 3.4 | 1 | 66.7 % | 1 | 0 | 0.0 % | 16.5 | 10.2 | 1.78 | 2 | 15.4 % |
| 8 | Preston Williams | MIA | 30 | 15 | 201 | 1 | 3.5 | 1.53 | 68.2 % | 8 | 2 | 25.0 % | 13.4 | 6.7 | 1.99 | 4 | 13.3 % |
| 9 | Dede Westbrook | JAX | 26 | 16 | 145 | 1 | 3.67 | 1.1 | 69.6 % | 6 | 1 | 16.7 % | 9.1 | 5.6 | 1.28 | 3 | 11.5 % |
| 10 | Josh Gordon | NE | 27 | 14 | 221 | 1 | 3.77 | 2.37 | 70.0 % | 7 | 3 | 42.9 % | 15.8 | 8.2 | 1.66 | 2 | 7.4 % |
DeVante Parker was out least effective wideout last week and despite the 4/70/1 outing against the Chargers. Parker’s touchdown was his first of the season and came via Josh Rosen, who has been marginally better than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Parker has only caught 10-of-24 targets this season, including a lowly 3-of-10 in contested catch situations. While Parker boasts an impressive 20.1 yards per catch, he only ranks 63rd among NFL wideouts with 1.65 yards per route run. Don’t overreact to one touchdown, Parker has been awful so far. Teammate Preston Williams has fared better but can’t be considered a viable weekly play in an atrocious Miami offense.
Since Mike Williams sat out Week 4 with a back injury, he remained next-to-last with a 57.1% True Catch Rate. Even if Williams is able to return this week, he’ll face a tough task against a Denver secondary that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Speaking of injuries, drops leader John Ross has been placed on IR and will miss a minimum of eight games. Ross opened the season with a pair of 100-yard outings but looked like the perennial bust that he’s become in Weeks 3 and 4. The Bengals don’t look like they’ll be going anywhere in 2019, so there’s a very good chance we’ve seen the last of Ross. He can be safely dropped in redraft formats and has dwindling dynasty value.
Kenny Golladay is quite a surprise on this list since he’s actually having a solid campaign so far. Golladay enters Detroit’s Week 5 as a WR1 and is tied atop the NFL leaderboard with four touchdown receptions. But, Golladay isn’t making a big impact downfield and has barely caught half of the targets thrown his way. He’s only had two drops, so expect those numbers to improve as the season continues. Golladay remains an every-week, locked-in WR2.
Route-running and efficiency were the two biggest concerns for D.K. Metcalf coming out of Ole Miss and through four games the rookie has only caught 10-of-23 targets. Week 4 was Metcalf’s worst game, as he played a season-low 40 snaps and had his fewest targets (4), receptions (1), and yards (6). With 62% of his routes coming from the left side, Metcalf has a tough task in Week 5 facing Los Angeles Rams’ cornerback Marcus Peters on short rest.
Alshon Jeffery isn’t offering up much from the volume standpoint but has scored in both of his full games played. Jeffery has yet to make any downfield impact and is averaging a lowly 5.8 yards per target, which ranks 75th among NFL wideouts. Part of that can be attributed to lower leg injuries, which makes Jeffery a bit of a TD-or-bust option until he’s fully healthy and able to challenge defensive backs beyond 10 yards. And when that happens, his efficiency numbers will improve.
True Catch Rate Leaders
| Rank | Player | Team | TGTS | REC | YDS | TD | CUSHION | SEPERATION | TRUE CATCH RATE | CONTESTED TGTS | CONTEST REC | CONTEST% | YDS/REC | YDS/TGT | YDS/ROUTE | DROP | DROP% |
| 1 | Kenny Stills | HOU | 14 | 11 | 188 | 1 | 3.94 | 1.32 | 100.0 % | 0 | 0 | 0.0 % | 17.1 | 13.4 | 4 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 2 | Cooper Kupp | LAR | 46 | 32 | 389 | 3 | 3.81 | 1.33 | 97.0 % | 3 | 1 | 33.3 % | 12.2 | 8.5 | 2.49 | 1 | 2.2 % |
| 3 | Chris Godwin | TB | 33 | 26 | 386 | 4 | 4.52 | 1.08 | 96.3 % | 8 | 6 | 75.0 % | 14.8 | 11.7 | 3.06 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 4 | Sterling Shepard | NYG | 25 | 20 | 218 | 1 | 4.56 | 1.36 | 95.2 % | 5 | 2 | 40.0 % | 10.9 | 8.7 | 1.98 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 5 | D.J. Chark | JAX | 26 | 19 | 321 | 3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 95.0 % | 5 | 3 | 60.0 % | 16.9 | 12.3 | 3.06 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 6 | Trey Quinn | WAS | 24 | 15 | 109 | 1 | 4.23 | 1.88 | 93.8 % | 3 | 1 | 33.3 % | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 7 | Demarcus Robinson | KC | 21 | 14 | 250 | 3 | 3.51 | 1.57 | 93.3 % | 3 | 3 | 100.0 % | 17.9 | 11.9 | 1.97 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 8 | Robert Woods | LAR | 38 | 26 | 307 | 0 | 5.48 | 1.08 | 92.9 % | 2 | 1 | 50.0 % | 11.8 | 8.1 | 1.96 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 8 | Adam Thielen | MIN | 22 | 13 | 179 | 2 | 4.48 | 1.32 | 92.9 % | 3 | 2 | 66.7 % | 13.8 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 10 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARZ | 36 | 23 | 300 | 2 | 3.32 | 1.04 | 92.0 % | 4 | 1 | 25.0 % | 13 | 8.3 | 2.11 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 10 | Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 33 | 23 | 298 | 2 | 4.5 | 1.76 | 92.0 % | 3 | 2 | 66.7 % | 13 | 9 | 2.26 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 12 | Michael Thomas | NO | 42 | 34 | 361 | 1 | 4.68 | 1.24 | 91.9 % | 7 | 6 | 85.7 % | 10.6 | 8.6 | 2.89 | 2 | 4.8 % |
There must be something in the humid Houston air, as Kenny Stills is the lone remaining NFL wideout with a perfect True Catch Rate. Teammate Will Fuller led the entire league in 2018, which is a credit to Deshaun Watson and company. Unfortunately, Stills came up lame after tweaking his hamstring against the Panthers and could be absent for a while. Soft-tissue injuries have plagued Houston’s receiving corps, including Keke Coutee, who will take over if Stills misses time.
That Chris Godwin breakout that everyone was predicting certainly came to fruition. Godwin’s 12/172/2 line from Week 4 vaulted him into the No. 3 overall WR spot through four weeks, one spot ahead of teammate Mike Evans. Godwin’s 96.3% True Catch Rate score also ranks third but where Godwin really excels is in contested catches, where he’s corralled 6-of-8. Also tied for the league lead with four TD grabs, Godwin has blossomed into an every-week, top-10 fantasy stud.
Sterling Shepard has been a pleasant surprise, catching 20 out of 25 targets for 218 yards and a touchdown as New York’s new No. 1 wideout. Shepard has run 78% of his routes out of the slot but that could change with the pending return of Golden Tate, who is set to make his 2019 debut against the Vikings. Regardless of usage, Shepard has recorded 6-plus grabs in each of his three games and been a reliable PPR option and that should continue with improved quarterback play.
Our No. 1 ranked receiver from last week, D.J. Chark, dipped to fifth after a mediocre four-catch, 44-yard performance in Denver. Chark had only failed to catch three of his 18 targets in Jacksonville’s first three games before misfiring on half of his eight targets against the Broncos. Denver’s excellent pass defense played a big part in Chark’s poor outing. The Jaguars travel to Carolina in Week 5, so it could be another struggle for the Jaguars’ passing attack.
Trey Quinn has managed to catch 15-of-16 catchable throws but has made little overall progress. Those 15 receptions have only added up to 103 yards. That 7.3 yards per catch average ranks 82nd out of 84 wide receivers with 8-plus receptions. Even worse, Quinn ranks 83rd with a paltry 4.5 yards per target figure. Quinn has multiple receptions in all of Washington’s games but offers next to zero fantasy upside.
Kansas City’s Demarcus Robinson leads all wideouts in the top-20 with an impressive 17.9 yards per catch average. He’s also the only top-10 TCR entry to have caught all of this contested catch opportunities. While Tyreek Hill has begun practicing again and could return in a week or two, Robinson shouldn’t be affected. He was already locked in as the Chiefs’ No. 3 receiver. Even with a difficult downfield role, Robinson’s 93.3% True Catch Rate score is all the more impressive.
Larry Fitzgerald continues to look rejuvenated, even with the overall disappointing performance of Arizona’s passing attack. Kliff Kingsbury has the Cardinals leading the league in pace but Kyler Murray has posted an unimposing 4-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio through four games. Fitzgerald, meanwhile, boasts an impressive 92% True Catch Rate score, with his customary zero drops. If Murray can turn the page and start getting the ball into the end-zone, Fitzgerald looks like he could easily finish his 16th and possibly final NFL season as a top-10 fantasy wideout.
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