Deebo Samuel Fantasy
Coming into the 2022 season, expectations were extremely high for Deebo Samuel, and rightfully so. He was coming off a 2021 season where he finished as the WR2, catching 77 of his 121 targets for 1405 yards and six touchdowns, while rushing for an additional 365 yards on 59 attempts and eight touchdowns. This broke the NFL record for rushing touchdowns by a wide receiver; a record that had stood for 60 years after being set in 1961 by Lenny Moore of the Baltimore Colts. While no one who knows fantasy football believed that his touchdown efficiency was sustainable they still had very high hopes in 2022, drafting him (on average) 16th overall, as the 5th WR off the board. While it’s true that whenever you draft someone at their ceiling you are setting yourself up for disappointment, no one could’ve predicted just how underwhelming the season would be. In 2022, he finished as the WR37 in PPR formats, playing in 14 games, catching 56 of his 94 targets for 632 yards with two touchdowns and rushing 42 times for 232 yards and three more scores. When you draft someone as your WR1 and they don’t even finish as a WR3 in 12 team leagues it’s going to be a long season. Now going into 2023 everyone is wondering which Deebo Samuel will show up. The 2021 version or the 2022 one. The answer, most likely, is somewhere in the middle.
Current ADP
- ADP: #36
- WR ADP: #16
Being selected 16th at the position and 36th overall puts Samuel right at the end of the third round and solidly in the WR2 camp. While on paper this seems to make sense due to his undeniable talent and the fact that he is on one of the best teams in football, I fear that this ADP is once again setting his owners up for disappointment. There are many teams where Samuel would be the unquestioned #1 offensive weapon. Unfortunately, his current team is not one of those teams. His impressive 2021 season came in large part because they used him as a dual threat, but in 2022 his receptions and rushes went down on a per-game basis, and this is true even before they acquired Christian McCaffrey. Prior to that trade Samuel was averaging 4.5 receptions and 3.8 carries a game. After the trade both of those numbers went down, and not much has changed about his situation. So while I don’t see his ADP changing much between now and when drafts happen, I would rather take players like DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave, or even Keenan Allen (all with similar ADPs) over Samuel.
Fantasy Insight
My biggest issue with Samuel is that you’d be using a premium draft pick on a player with question marks surrounding usage and health. In his record-breaking 2021 season he managed to stay on the field the entire season, but the year prior to that he only played in seven games due to a hamstring injury. Then last year he missed four games for a variety of injuries which included his hamstring (once again), an MCL sprain, and an ankle injury. While I’m not a fan of the phrase “injury prone” because any player can get injured at any time, it is concerning when you see a player have similar injuries in multiple years. Then there’s the usage. Plainly put there are a lot of mouths to feed on this roster: Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, McCaffrey, and Elijah Mitchell are all talented players who earn substantial playing time. Aiyuk and McCaffrey, in particular, could eat into Samuel’s opportunities, since they already averaged more receptions in 2022 on a per game basis. Then there’s the question marks surrounding the QB situation. Most reports say that if Brock Purdy is ready week one, he will be the starter, which means we simply don’t know exactly what this team will look like with an entire offseason preparing for him to be the starter. We do not have enough of a sample size with Purdy and all his weapons out there at the same time to know how large of role any of these players will have. But in a Kyle Shanahan system, the most likely outcome is they spread the ball around. This would limit Samuel’s upside. There’s also the chance Shanahan chooses to limit Samuel’s usage as a runner, and I’m not sure he can justify a second-round pick just as a receiver. I’d rather wait on Aiyuk, who is going 42 picks later, and could easily have the better season.
Fantasy Value
At this point it should be pretty clear that I don’t see a lot of value in Samuel based on where he is going in drafts. It’s possible that you strike gold with him and get something akin to the 2021 version, but it’s far more likely (if he stays on the field) that you get a player who lands somewhere between WR2 and WR37, but closer to the latter than the former. If you judge this book by its cover then there is a ton of upside there because Samuel is still one of the most talented and athletic players every time he sets foot on a field. But if you look at the situation and all the other pieces around him you’ll see a guy with a decent floor but a capped ceiling. Do I think he’ll finish in the top 25 at the position? Possibly. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, and if you’re drafting him as a WR2 with upside to be a WR1 and he finishes as WR20 or higher you’re going to be very disappointed. Plus, WR20-WR25 are going a whole one to two rounds later and nearly all of them have more upside than Samuel.
Dynasty Value
I wish I could say I see more value when it comes to dynasty, but I don’t. As long as these other pieces are on the 49ers’ roster, Samuel will be a frustrating player to own. While it’s true that he’s entering his prime and signed a three year contract extension worth up to $73.5 million with $58.1 million guaranteed prior to last season, that’s only a guarantee when it come to job security, not fantasy production. He’s not going to be a player who consistently falls off a cliff and continues to finish outside the top 30 wide receivers, but I also don’t see a top five finish in his range of outcomes. Unfortunately, what that means is anyone who acquired him before the 2022 season likely gave up too much for him. But I’d still be looking to sell. There are still plenty of believers in Samuel the player who allow that belief to cloud their view of Samuel the fantasy commodity. I wouldn’t sell low, especially since his name alone still carries value, but I would entertain offers for Samuel, and let someone else deal with the headache of a once WR1 who is morphing into a WR3 before our eyes.
Bold Prediction
I’m not sure how bold this prediction is, but seeing as how Samuel is still being drafted within the first three rounds as a mid range WR2, I’m clearly lower on him than others. I think he is going to finish closer to his floor than his ceiling, because I’m not sure the perceived ceiling exists for him anymore. I’m not saying he isn’t still capable of being a weekly contributor, just not the type of contributor you are hoping for when you draft him. He will finish with under 1000 total yards, single digit touchdowns, and outside the top 25 at the position.
