DraftKings NFL Picks Week 7
Initial Thoughts
Week 7 has arrived and there are some interesting match-ups on this slate. Lots of good “real football” games but high profile players we normally like to roster are set up in some tougher “fantasy football” environments. I’m looking forward to working my way through the slate and trying to identify some low key plays, because first glance makes me think we’re all going to have the same core of players throughout our builds this week.
Review
“Chalk, Pivots, and Punts” is an NFL DFS series focused around main slate GPPs. We go game by game looking at potential chalk plays to pivot away from, and perhaps discover some diamond in the rough type punt plays to add a differentiation piece to our builds. Each game will have a brief write up and will include the team’s projected point total and Vegas Implied point spread as of the time of writing. Here is a link to a Google Sheet that presents data I collect throughout the season breaking down points allowed to specific positions, and displays home/road splits, as well as the combined data. Below are links to the final data from last year I posted to Twitter.
- Link to Tweet: Chart showing where defenses allowed fantasy points by position last year
- Link to Tweet: Chart showing how defenses allowed TDs by Passing & Rushing last year
When discussing pivot plays, it’s not always as simple as saying “Player A” is chalk so pivot to “Player B”. Pivots can be a pivot from one player to another player at the same position, a pivot from one position to another, or just a way to pivot to the other side of a game that everyone else might be heavy to one side of. Simply put, the pivots will not always be direct pivots, more like other ideas to consider in the macro-view of the slate.
Process
The process I use for this article and for selecting my player pool starts with the data I collect and chart. The match-up chart and individual match-ups are the first layer of the onion. Once we have that peeled we should have a sizable player pool to work with. The next step is to reconcile that data. I use the Google sheet above to reconcile the match-up chart by looking at what the opposing teams did to allow those numbers. Who did they face to get there? What were the game environments like? I try to watch as many games as I can, but I can’t watch them all, so I do a lot of reading from my Beat Writer list to keep up with injuries, changes to the way the team is playing, and look for other general trends to consider. Using Fantasy Data’s resources helps get a snapshot on a team and player level for the offenses to see what type of numbers they are putting up. Then, it’s about identifying what the top plays are for the slate, and how heavily they will be owned. This is where we need to have some pivots in our back pocket, and if necessary some punts if we want to jam in a bunch of elite plays and have to look for a value guy to put up 10 or more points. Game theory, contest selection, and roster construction are the final challenges as we try to put it all together. This where we win or lose.
Below is my Chalk, Pivots, and Punts Chart based on my opinion of the slate and what the field will likely be on this week.
Let’s get after it…
San Francisco 49ers (25.25/-9.5) at Washington Redskins (15.75/+9.5) [41]
The 49ers running game travels to the east coast this week. Typically, west coast teams going back east have trouble adjusting to the time difference. That may be the only trouble SF has in this one based on the way they have been playing. The 49ers are gaining chunks of yardage through their run game and relying on the defense to keep the opponent from letting the game get away from them. This is not a great recipe for rostering their pass catchers, especially with the way their limited targets are being spread around – other than to George Kittle ($6700). Kittle is the only trustworthy option for DFS right now. The 49ers are going to impose their will on defenses with the run game, and both Matt Breida ($5300) and Tevin Coleman ($5600) are viable options in a given week, but each caps the other’s ceiling. The 49ers have been pulling Breida off the field once they get down inside the 10 yard line, which is where Coleman has been coming in. Coleman had 6 carries from inside the 20 yard line last week and 2 the game before. Breida has had 0 these last two games making Coleman the more valuable back to roster. Washington has allowed less than a TD per game on the ground and no multi-TD rushing games to this point, but the Niners have the talent to break through that. The 49ers DST ($4100) is worth rostering if you’ve got the salary for it.
The Redskins won the game that could ultimately cost them the #1 overall choice by beating the Dolphins in Miami last week. Their roster is a wasteland on offense outside of Terry McLaurin ($6100). Washington will have to figure out a way to get him through the 49ers defense, and at that salary it’s a gamble. The game may be close enough throughout where the 49ers don’t let up on defense and allow garbage time stats, so he’s a risk you’ll have to be willing to take if you like him this week.
Arizona Cardinals (23.75/+3) at New York Giants (26.75/-3) [50.5]
Kyler Murray ($6700) has been on a nice increasing scoring trend over the past 3 weeks and has shown a stable fantasy floor to this point. It will be interesting to see if Kingsbury brings back some of the deep throws we were seeing in weeks 1 and 2 to take advantage of the Giants secondary that is allowing a league-worst 30 pass plays of over 20 yards and 7 moreover 40 yards (tied for second-worst). Damiere Byrd’s 9.8 yards of aDOT lead the team for receivers that see the most snaps and opportunities (see graphic below). Larry Fitzgerald’s ($6100) 9.7 aDOT is right behind him though. Christian Kirk ($5000) sees the field the most of the three but is coming off an injury so we have to monitor his status throughout the week. David Johnson ($7800) is the only do-it-all back besides Dalvin Cook the Giants will have seen so far (Zeke wasn’t getting a full allotment of snaps in his week 1 game). In the game they saw Cook, they let him go for 29.8 DK points. Johnson has that type of ceiling, so if you’re looking for a dollar-for-dollar pivot away from Cook in a few line-ups, Johnson is the guy. He should go lower owned than Dalvin.
If we follow the “Flow Chart” that Al Smizzle laid out for us a few weeks ago, then the next guy to fill our TE spot is Evan Engram ($6500). Engram is a great play as it was but now he gets to take on a team that is getting annihilated by opposing TEs, especially the good ones. The Cards are aware of this trend, and Kingsbury addressed in his presser on Wednesday, but they have acknowledged it before and still got smoked. Engram is still the top play at TE this week, even if they try harder to stop him. Saquon Barkley ($8900) appears on track to return this week, which gives the Cards defense another elite weapon to focus their defensive efforts upon. The last time we saw Saquon Barkley play a full game he posted 25.5 DK points against the Bills defense, and prior to that he hung 20.9 on the Cowboys. Then he got hurt in the 2nd quarter in Tampa. Barkley has one of the highest ceilings of any RB, but does draw a tougher than as is obvious match-up. The Cards have allowed the lowest target percentage to opposing RBs this year and have allowed only 0.33 rushing TDs per game with no multi-TD rushing games to this point. Barkley has the talent to beat this, and we just saw a possible way how when Devonta Freeman cashed in his 3 receptions for 2 TDs last week. If the Cards focus on Engram in the red zone, Barkley may be able to steal a couple of TDs from him. Daniel Jones ($6100) would be more interesting if he was priced lower, but he is on a four-game declining trend and has only had one good game. The return of Patrick Peterson should help the Cardinals secondary slow down some of the passing numbers they’ve allowed, but this is a back east road game for a west coast team, so perhaps Jones could have some value here. He’ll be pretty low owned at that price. Having Saquon back will help relieve Jones of the full burden on offense.
Houston Texans (23.25/+1) at Indianapolis Colts (24.25/-1) [47.5]
Deshaun Watson ($7000) is an absolute beast. He has three games over 30 DK points already this year and faces a team that has allowed 21 points or more to three pocket passers this year. Add a bit of Watson’s legs and he should approach another 30 point game. Indy does a good job at limiting points to all positions but has allowed opposing TEs to grab 6.4 points per game more than league average (3rd highest). Darren Fells ($3100) is someone we’ll want to mix into multi-entry builds this week. He’s had 3 games above 12.9 DK points this year and is coming off a 7 target game last week. He’s becoming a reliable red-zone target for Watson and is second on the team with 5 (converting 3 into TDs), tying Houston’s other TE Jordan Akins ($3200) – who we can also consider in multi-entry, although his highest targets in a game is 5 and Fells has cleared that number twice with 6 and 7. Watson’s leading red-zone target this year is Will Fuller ($6200), who has 3 TDs, all of which happened in the same game. Still, Fuller is starting to see a lot more targets lately, some of which may be attributable to Kenny Stills’s ($4300) absence. DeAndre Hopkins ($7800) has been under-performing for his price in every game except week 1. He’s due for a big game at some point. Looking at Hopkins’s game logs shows he’s had some fairly unspectacular games against the Colts over the past 3 years, except for the game in Indy last year where he went off for 10 catches, 169 yards, and 1 touchdown. Could we see that type of week here? We’ll see. He needs to be in multi-entry player pools just in case.
Indianapolis is coming off their bye week with the extra week to prepare for the visiting Texans. This was a close game series last year with each team winning one game apiece by 3 points. The first game in Indy was the higher-scoring game, showing that the Colts were able to adjust their game-plan for their visit to Houston. I get the feeling that will be the case here and we’ll see another lower-ish scoring game. Frank Reich’s game-plans have been opponent specific and have lead to a run ratio that is top 5 in the league. This will be a strength versus strength match-up if they try and run the ball behind their dominating OL against the Texans dominating front 7. Marlon Mack ($6000) will be given a chance to do that, but the Colts may decide the Texans secondary is where they will attack, given they have been the weakness to this point. TY Hilton ($5900) is dirt cheap considering the outside coverage points the Texans defense has allowed. Jonathan Joseph has been getting roasted for 15.1 PPR points per game this year. Hilton and Joseph have a history which came to a peak before last season’s playoff match-up when Hilton wore a clown mask after Joseph called him a clown for saying NRG Stadium was like his second home. Hilton started out hot in that game, but fizzled down the stretch. You can bet he’ll be up for this game in his actual home stadium. I don’t have much interest in the rest of the Colts pass catchers, but if we believe Reich will take to the air to try and win this one, then we have to consider Jacoby Brissett ($5600) as a MME option this week.
Oakland Raiders (21.25/+4.5) at Green Bay Packers (25.75/-4.5) [47]
The Raiders are coming off their bye week and have the extra week to prepare and heal. Ty Williams will be out so the passing game will be Darren Waller ($4700) and a bunch of who’s-its. Most weeks I have very little interest in the Raiders offense, except for when Waller was still cheap (and he kind of is this week). This week I have my eyes on Josh Jacobs ($5100) though. The Packers defense has allowed 29 or more DK points at home to Cook, Lindsay, and Howard. They do a good job of limiting points to the receivers, so Gruden is likely to focus his attack around the running game and Waller again, as he did against the Bears who have a much better run defense. Jacob’s fullback played college ball for Wisconsin, so he’ll have some extra pep in his step playing in front of his friends and family. The Raiders DST ($1900) is one of the new under $2k defenses that DK has been rolling out, and with the extra week to prepare, the injuries on the Packers offense, and the way they have played against the Bears last week I’m willing to give them a look if I need the salary relief.
The Packers top 3 wide-outs are all questionable for this game after starting the week with DNP’s. We could be looking at some value plays from this offense this week because of it. Jake Kumerow ($3600) has earned praise from Aaron Rodgers ($6400) in each of the last two preseasons and may get his chance to shine here. The Raiders are allowing the third-highest adjusted points above league average to WRs on the slate and will be playing defense against Rodger at Lambeau field (a place their head coach is familiar with). However, it was Alan Lazard ($3000) who had the most targets of the trio of non-starters we may be looking at. He caught 4 of his 5 targets for 65 yards and a crucial touchdown in the 4th quarter to bring the Packers within 2 points, and eventually the win. He’s priced at the minimum and will likely be a popular play if he is slated to see a lot of action (if any or all of the starting 3 WRs sit). The third guy we’ll look at is Darrius Shepherd ($3500). Given that we haven’t seen this group play much, it’s hard to get a good read on what to do with them, but one could be a 20+ point scorer this week. Jamaal Williams ($7100) returned last week and formed an equal opportunity time-share with Aaron Jones ($4900) and out-produced Jones in both the running and passing games. If deciding to play either guy here, go with the cheaper option, Williams. The Packers DST ($3400) falls into a range of pricing that makes them playable. With all the receiver injuries on both sides of the ball, this could be a low scoring game, but Carr doesn’t take many sacks or throw many picks, so they may be a low ceiling option.
Minnesota Vikings (23.0/-2) at Detroit Lions (21.0/+2) [44]
This looks like it could be a Dalvin Cook ($8000) bounce-back game after he was slowed down by the Eagles stifling run defense last week. The Lions are allowing the highest adjusted fantasy points to #1 RBs on the slate. With so few elite options to choose from this week we should see Cook as a chalk play, but one we want to use. The match-up chart is also showing that the Lions are allowing 19 points to each of the #1 WR and Slot WR positions. This is because 4 out of the 5 WRs they have faced this year primarily line up in the slot. 52 of Adam Thielen’s ($6900) 344 snaps have come from the slot. The Vikings typically run 12 personnel so they don’t put a slot onto the field all that often, but if we want to target a Viking receiver in our line-ups this week, I’d suggest targeting Thielen. Let the field chase Diggs’s big game form last week. This game should flow through Cook as it is, so only one receiver is likely to hold any value in this match-up.
The Lions and Matt Stafford ($5200) have opened the offense up under new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell (an apple off the Bill Walsh tree via Holmgren & Reid). Despite already having a bye week, Stafford is still second in our advanced metrics for deep passes attempted this year. The match-up chart is showing the Vikings have been tough against receivers this year, and they have faced some good ones. Still, both outside corners are allowing over 10 PPR points per game to opposing WRs. There’s a chance the Lions could keep this game interesting if they play to their pace that has allowed them to average 61 plays per game. If Minnesota and Cook control the clock, then it could force them into more throws making a Stafford and one or both of Kenny Golladay ($5800) and Marvin Jones ($5000) a viable multi-entry tournament stack pivot at their depressed prices. An area teams seem to have been funneled into against the Vikings defense is throwing to their TEs. T.J. Hockenson ($3600) could be in line for some additional work here and may be able to pay off his meager price tag. To make this stack cheaper, going Stafford, Golladay, Hockenson will allow you to bring it back with Cook and go from there with other higher priced plays.
Jacksonville Jaguars (24.25/-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (20.25/+4) [44.5]
The Bengals should be the RB “Flow Chart” for 2019, but they are competing with Miami for that title. Cincy is allowing teams to rush for a league-leading 184 yards per game and 9 rushing TDs (1.5 rushing TDs per game and 50% multi-TD rushing rate). They also allow the highest percentage of targets to flow to the RB position. All signs point to Leonard Fournette ($7000) being mega-chalk and possibly the highest scoring player on the slate. DJ Chark ($6000) has had some really good games this year but may not be a necessary piece in order for the Jags to win this one. Teams have just been handing the ball off or passing the their backs against Cincy – though the Bengals will be without their top two corners this week, so it’s not a bad idea to play Chark. Fournette, and maybe (if salary allows) the Jaguars DST ($3500) are all I’m interested in here this week.
Aside from Sammy Watkins and Christian McCaffrey, there hasn’t been any single player to go nuts against this Jags defense, even with Ramsey sidelined. Courtland Sutton had a solid 24 DK point game as well, but there’s not enough here and not enough talent and scheme on the Bengals side to warrant any consideration for their offensive pieces in anything other than MME. Tyler Boyd ($5600) is priced down quite a bit this week, and should continue to see a ton of targets, so he’s worth keeping in the player pool.
Miami Dolphins (12.0/+16.5) at Buffalo Bills (28.5/-16.5) [40.5]
As with the Bengals, I’ll have no interest in any of the Miami pieces unless I’m multi-entering a contest. They don’t have one player that matches up well against this Buffalo defense coming off their bye week and they hold the #1 pick, so won’t be coached well enough to win this one.
On the other hand, the Bills have plenty to get excited about. Josh Allen ($6500) might be my favorite QB on the slate this week. He gets a bad defense at home, coming off his bye, and has the running ability to take advantage of the Dolphins defense. The Dolphins are allowing the 3rd-highest average score to opposing QBs on the slate, are allowing an average of 2.4 TD passes per game with all 5 of their games allowing for multiple TD passes. No QB is set up better for success this week than Allen. Miami is terrible against RBs as well, and we do get a little revenge narrative with Frank Gore ($5200) taking on his former and hometown team. Gore will split work with Devin Singletary ($5400) which could be a 50/50 split if the Bills continue to divide the work as they have when Yeldon was in there. Singletary did see 70% of the snaps in his fully healthy week 1 though, so he’s someone to keep in mind, especially with the Bills being 2nd on Derek Carty’s list of adjusted pass rate. Singeltary will get all passing work while Gore will get the majority of carries. At receiver, I’m looking to pair my Allen shares with John Brown ($5500), primarily, and will have to get a good read on who takes the spot Zay was occupying before getting demoted then traded. Duke Williams ($4100) went undrafted coming out of Auburn in 2016, but surfaced as a CFL All-Star last year and has the frame to be a reliable red-zone target for Allen. He’s already been given a price tag of over $4k by DK after one NFL game which is still within punt range, but seems like too much of a spike for only catching 4 passes for 29 yards and a TD. Still, he’s an option, as is reliable slot receiver Cole Beasley ($4700) who is priced barely ahead of Duke. The Bills DST ($4300) is the most expensive on the slate, but you have salary left over, why not?
Los Angeles Rams (29.0/-3) at Atlanta Falcons (26.0/+3) [55]
Matt Ryan ($6300) continued his streak of hitting the DK 300 yard bonus in every game played this season by dropping 356 yards and 4 TD on the Cardinals last week. The Rams have shuffled their secondary around coming into the week. Talib went on IR, Peters went to Baltimore, and Ramsey was brought in from Jacksonville. Ramsey seems likely to play in this one and could follow Julio Jones ($8000) around the field. It’ll be interesting to see how Ramsey plays in his first game as a Ram, and whether he can shut down Julio. Julio always has a safe floor and his massive ceiling have folks in FOMO mode so we can expect him to be a bit chalky this week. Calvin Ridley ($5300) makes sense this week going against Troy Hill, who would be the weakest link in the secondary if Ramsey plays. Mo Sanu ($4600) has had a stable floor in most games this year but will be matched with Robey-Coleman which will cap any ceiling. The only elite TE the Rams defense has seen this year was Kittle last week. If the Rams are shutting down the outside receivers, then get Austin Hooper ($5300) – who has been playing at an elite level this year – may see some extra targets on top of his usual 7-9 per game. Where the Rams got hurt worst last week was in the run game. Atlanta doesn’t have the scheme that SF has and prefers to pass rather than run, but the passing game is what lead to Devonta Freeman’s ($5400) big game last week…sort of. He caught two TDs, which are not a predictable stat. This game has a higher likelihood of being a shoot-out than a defensive battle so getting game stacks going from this one could be lucrative.
Los Angeles Chargers (19.25/+2.5) at Tennessee Titans (21.75/-2.5) [41]
The Chargers offense has been getting important pieces back lately. Notably, Hunter Henry ($4000) went for 33 DK points in his first game back from injury. The Bolts are going to need him here. Tennessee has been forcing their opponents into a league-low 48% target rate to WRs. This is quite an achievement when you look at the teams and WRs they’ve faced. The remaining 52% target share is spilling out to the RBs and TEs. Henry will be a key factor if the Chargers win this game. Melvin Gordon ($5900) used to be a $7000-$8000 back, but is now sub $6k. He’ll also need to step up for LA in this one. He’s been worked in slowly to this point, but should have a bigger role here and could get some help with the return of Russell Okung to the OL. Austin Ekeler ($6200) is still priced above MG3, but his role is shifting back to the complementary piece rather than lead back. With the way targets are flowing against Tennessee, he could still be relevant this week. Keenan Allen ($6700) has gone M.I.A. over the last three games after being a top receiver through the first three. He’ll see Logan Ryan in the slot who he should be able to beat. Ryan is allowing 10 PPR points per game to opposing receivers which is 3.5 points higher than the slate average of 6.5.
Ryan Tannehill ($4800) takes over at QB for an offense that has been shutout in more quarters than they have scored in. He can’t do any worse, right? But, can he help in DFS? Tannehill has been an average to below-average fantasy QB during his career and under the confines of this offense, that can be expected to continue. He not worth rostering this week, even at that salary. However, he may be able to provide a spark to one or more of the receivers. I looked through Tannehill’s preseason game log to find any signals as to who that might be, but he only played one game with current starters, and that was the dress rehearsal week 3 game. AJ Brown ($3800) saw the most targets from Tanny in that game with 3. The rest of the titan starters at RB/WR/TE only saw 1, if any. I looked at Tannehill’s years in Miami, and whether it was system related, talent related, or tendency Tanny mostly targeted his slot receiver. That puts Adam Humphries ($3400) on the radar a bit as well. Corey Davis ($4000) is the Titans former 5th overall draft pick from 2017, but that was under a different regime. Most likely we’re going to see the 29 to 30 pass attempts get distributed fairly evenly across the board, unless the Titans identify a match-up through film study or in-game that they want to exploit. The match-up chart doesn’t show any must play spots, and the only green signal comes from the LB/S coverage box for average PPR points allowed by their starting group. This could point us toward Delanie Walker ($3800) as the focal point here. The Chargers have not seen any great TEs this year, and while Walker is good (not great) at this point in his career, he is still better than anyone they have faced yet. Since this slate is somewhat baron at value, I am looking for something from the Titans this week to help free up salary. Unfortunately, my research didn’t prove any one conclusive guy, so I’m going to roll out whichever receiving threat fits my remaining salary best for the particular build. Derrick Henry ($5800) could get going in this one, if the Titans commit to the run. They have allowed the teams that have to rack up DK points from their lead backs when they allowed Mack to score 28.4, and James Conner to score 30.9. Kerryon was even able to must 16.8 against them. Henry makes a solid pivot play this week in what could be a highly concentrated RB ownership group.
Baltimore Ravens (23.0/+3) at Seattle Seahawks (26.0/-3) [49]
This game looks like the best “real football” game on the slate. We get to see Lamar Jackson ($6800) in a showdown with Russell Wilson ($6600), two of the most entertaining QBs in the league right now. Jackson has the slightly higher price (presumably) because of his higher rushing numbers. He could be without his top deep threat and only high ceiling wide-out if Hollywood Brown ($5600) can’t go due to his ankle injury. Brown has not practiced all week, so it’s looking doubtful. If Brown is out, then the top receiving threat for Baltimore will be TE Mark Andrews ($4900) who is no longer listed on the injury report. Seattle shows a weakness to TEs and LB/S coverage points allowed on the match-up chart so we need to strongly consider Andrews as one of the top TE plays this week. None of their other offensive pieces have a ceiling anywhere close to what Andrews can bring, and are not going to be on my radar. If you’re an MME player, then a guy like Miles Boykin ($3500) makes sense as a punt play.
Russell Wilson has ranked high in our advanced metrics all year but will be facing a defense with a shut-down corner (Humphrey) and a corner that is familiar with Seattle (Peters). I am assuming we’ll see Humphrey shadow Tyler Lockett ($6600) since he shadowed Boyd last week, even into the slot. That puts Peters on DK Metcalf ($4800). So far this year, the secondary receiver has had the better game against the Ravens secondary, but DK is a rookie in a low volume pass offense, so my expectations are limited for him. However, he does have amazing speed and Peters will gamble a lot in coverage which leads to him getting beat deep often. If the Raven were smart, they will shade Earl Thomas (revenge game narrative) over toward Peters and keep DK in check and let Humphrey do all the work on Lockett. So where does that leave us for option on this offense? Well, you could punt with Jaron Brown ($3700), who could see the higher end of his target range this year with 5 to 6 targets, and hope he gets across the goal line once or twice. Or, we could avoid the passing game altogether and make the guess that Seattle will do what Cleveland and Kansas City did and try to win with the ground game by rostering Chris Carson ($6500). Carson should go somewhat lower owned if people are holding onto the memories of the Ravens run defense of the past few years.
New Orleans Saints (17.5/+3.5) at Chicago Bears (21.0/-3.5) [38.5]
Alvin Kamara ($7500) has a real possibility of missing this game (UPDATE: He will). That gives us a value (and likely massive chalk) play with Latavius Murray ($5100) – and if you want to go full punt Dwayne Washington ($3000), since Payton prefers to keep two backs flowing through the offense (although that tendency has diminished a bit this year). With Bears DT Akiem Hicks going to IR, the running game should find a few more lanes. The Bears are allowing one of the highest pass rates to the RB position, which could be potential left untapped as Murray and Washington are not known for their pass-catching skills. The impact of Kamara being out will be felt most by Michael Thomas ($7900) who the Bears can assign 2 defenders to on every down. The Bears are already tough on WRs, allowing the second-lowest percentage of passes to that position group in the NFL, and with Cook and Tre’Quan set to miss this one, there’s going to be no one to take that coverage off of him. The Saints DST ($2900) is in play due to the low expected points and their ability to get sacks.
Mitch Trubisky ($5100) will return for the Bears this week against a tough defense. I don’t expect much from Mitch, or either offense, really. I am assuming Lattimore will follow Allen Robinson ($5500) around most of the game, which is a burden for Robinson’s success this week. The only crack in the armor for the Saints defense this year has been through the slot, where Williams is set to miss the game. Could his replacement be better than him? Maybe, but if he was, then he’d be the starter. Given this one crack to take advantage of, and since the Bears receiver who lines up primarily in the slot has a value price tag, I am fully considering a punt with Anthony Miller ($3900) this week. Miller hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points yet this year, but the situation warrants consideration. The Bears DST ($3000) will also be in my player pool this week, since this game seems likely to low scoring and there aren’t many value DST to work with for this slate. And now that Kamara, Cook, and Tre’Quan have been ruled out, they might be my favorite DST on the slate (probably other player’s, too).
Final Thoughts
This is a tough slate to find solid value out of and I expect a lot of players (especially the RBs) to be highly owned. Chalk is not going to kill us this week, but we need to find the right combo of players, the right pivots and punts as we’re building (or letting optimizer build) our line-ups. As always, this article is the start of my research and process for the week. Once I’m done working through each game on my own I start looking at other opinions I trust and bounce ideas off of people on Twitter so that I can refine my player pool by Sunday. If you want to follow along with that player pool it can be found in the same link as the match-up chart above, and if I have the time I will run a projection model to identify some other plays I may have overlooked. Good luck this week, and thanks for reading!
