Buy Low/Sell High
Now that the fantasy season is officially done (unless you for some reason have a week 18 matchup) we begin to shift gears to next season. Not necessarily for redraft, but if you are in a dynasty league (or even a keeper league) you are likely thinking about what moves you might want to make in the offseason. It’s never easy to know which moves are advisable in a dynasty league. The stakes are often higher because if the moves don’t pan out they can impact your team for a long time. There are often signs, however, that point to good people to buy and sell, and while it’s all speculative we can speculate based on educated insight as to where the arrow is pointing. With that in mind here are my players to buy low and sell high in dynasty this offseason.
Buy Low
Justin Herbert (QB)
The Los Angeles Chargers immediately turned their sights on 2024 the moment QB Justin Herbert was ruled out for the remainder of the season. This was disappointing to owners of Herbert everywhere. Many analysts and experts chose Herbert to lead the league in passing this season and make a run at the MVP. The combination of Herbert’s talent, the players around him, and new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore seemed like the perfect recipe for success. Unfortunately, fate had other plans. Herbert had the worst season of his NFL career with just 3,134 passing yards and 20 scores — both career lows. Some dynasty managers may be tempted to sell now with fear that big changes are coming this offseason. Changes that already started with the firing of head coach Brandon Staley. Yes, the Chargers will have some big decisions to make. Austin Ekeler is set to be an unrestricted free agent. Mike Williams is going to be 30 years old next season, is coming off a season-ending knee injury, and has a huge cap hit next year. Keenan Allen will turn 32 this April, has missed 11 games due to injury over the last two years, and also comes with a substantial hit against the salary cap next year at a projected $34 million. This is when you pounce. If the Herbert owner is panicking you could acquire one of the best young talents (he will be just 26 at the start of the 2024 season) at the QB position for peanuts. It doesn’t come without some risk, but very few quarterbacks come with the type of ceiling we have seen from Herbert while also providing a safe floor. There are no guarantees but if I were to bet on anyone bouncing back next year it would be Herbert.
Tyjae Spears (RB)
We all saw it coming. Eventually, Derrick Henry’s ability to produce at an elite level would begin to decline. King Henry’s reign wasn’t going to last forever. The question then became who would be his successor. It appears we have gotten a clear-cut answer to that question. The answer appears to be Tyjae Spears and the Spears era in Tennessee may happen sooner rather than later. Spears has not seen a ton of opportunities this season (although he has been fairly active in the passing game) but he has been efficient with the opportunities he has had. Spears has 772 total yards and has averaged 4.4 yards per carry. While he only has one touchdown this season, Spears is just one reception away from becoming the 17th running back since the turn of the millennium to run for over 400 yards and catch 50 passes in their rookie season. Serving in a complementary role to Henry all year, Spears could flourish with a featured role. This buy recommendation does come with one caveat. Buy now. If you recall, Spears came into the NFL with a knee issue. This issue could become problematic toward later on. So buy Spears with the knowledge that you may want to move him after one or two good seasons before the knee becomes a problem. If it never does then you have a talented, electric running back for years to come. Either way, it shouldn’t take a lot to acquire him right now (a late-2nd 2024 rookie pick or even two thirds) so it’s worth the risk.
Javonte Williams (RB)
As strange as it may sound, after the season he had, Javonte Williams is actually one of my favorite buy lows at the running back position. In 2023, Williams didn’t even crack the top-30 in any format, so those who own him may be beginning to sour on the third-year running back and might be willing to part with him for far less than they should. People forget that the first year back from injury is often a down year for a running back. That’s especially true with the type of injury Williams suffered. That’s why now is a perfect time to buy low on Williams, because, like many running backs who have suffered a serious injury, Williams could have a great season in 2024. Prior to the injury, he was one of PFF’s most elusive running backs, and looking at the incoming draft class there are not many 2024 prospects that are going to be able to steal work from him. Yes, Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine are already stealing some work away from him, but my guess is that is because he isn’t fully back from his injury and as such the team chose to limit his workload somewhat. But he did have 15 or more touches in nine of his 15 games, and being another year removed from injury his volume and efficiency should increase. Plus, let’s not forget that this Denver team is not very good overall. Russell Wilson was inconsistent and because of that, it was easy for defenses to focus on stopping the run game. The Broncos will look to improve in all facets in 2024 and this could lead to more success for Williams. I wouldn’t overpay for him, but if you can acquire Williams for a mid-2nd 2024 pick, I’d make that trade.
Drake London (WR)
This suggestion comes with a lot of risk but if it works out it could be one of the best buys you make. For London to truly be unleashed in 2024 and beyond two things have to happen. First, Arthur Smith has to get fired. Second, the Falcons have to find a long-term solution at quarterback. Up to this point, those who own London in dynasty circles have been met with frustration. Despite having an elite prospect profile coming into the NFL, London has failed to make a high-level impact for fantasy managers through the first two years of his career. This disappointment, paired with a less-than-ideal situation, all scream buy low. There’s an argument to be made that it’s hard to imagine his situation getting much worse which gives him a floor in the WR3 range. But what if his situation gets better? If that were to happen we might finally see the combination of talent and circumstance produce the type of numbers (WR2 with WR1 upside) we were expecting all along. Dynasty formats are different from any other format in that you have to think long-term, often prioritizing talent and age above all else, including a player’s situation. London has shown that he has top-tier talent, and at just 22 years old (23 when the 2024 season starts) he has the potential to become a top producer at the position if the Falcons can find him someone who can more consistently get the ball to him. There are some valid concerns about his inability to create separation or win against man coverage, but there is no reason to believe this can’t improve if he finds himself in the right situation. That combined with his elite ability to win on contested catches would make him an extremely valuable asset. London has a 2024 1st round value and you should be able to acquire him for a 2024 2nd. If you’re willing to accept some of the risks that come with acquiring London then buying low on him could pay huge dividends.
Garrett Wilson (WR)
Oh, what could have been. I like to think somewhere out there is a reality where New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson is catching passes from future Hall-of-Fame QB Aaron Rodgers en route to a top-5 fantasy season. Unfortunately, that was not the reality in 2023. Rodgers injured his Achilles just four snaps into the year, which meant Wilson would be forced to catch passes from a carousel of average (at best) QBs destroying any ceiling he had coming into the season. You would expect this to deter me from acquiring the talented wide receiver, but through two seasons now (although he has not reached the type of heights we were hoping for) he has proven to be largely quarterback-proof. In his rookie season, he was primarily catching passes from Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White, and yet he finished as the WR21 in full-PPR formats with 83 receptions for 1,103 yards, and four scores. This year, he caught passes from Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian. He currently sits as the WR23 with 93 receptions for 1,008 yards and three scores. Yes, you read that right. He has had two 1000-yard seasons catching passes from QBs that would be backups on most teams (although Flacco is a bit of a Cinderella story this year in Cleveland.). Plus, there is no one currently on the Jets to challenge his role. He has 163 targets on the season, which is the third-most in the league, trailing only CeeDee Lamb and Davante Adams (heard of them?). The Jets do have an entire offseason to play out, but if Rodgers returns in 2024 and the team doesn’t bring in any other alpha target-earners, Wilson could be in for a huge jump in efficiency. The issue is that I’m not the only one who knows this so not every dynasty manager of Wilson is going to be willing to sell low on him. But if the owner in your league is willing to meet you at a discounted rate (a 2nd and a 3rd, or just a 2nd if you can do it) then I would gladly acquire him.
Michael Wilson (WR)
This is a bit of a deeper dive. Wilson doesn’t have the name recognition or body of work that many of the other names on this list do. But he will likely come at a lower cost because of that and could be a solid WR3 who could develop into a WR2 over time. Before the second half of his rookie campaign was derailed by injury, Wilson was the leading receiver in Arizona. On a snap-by-snap basis, he was taking the majority of plays and routes run. Yes, he only had one serviceable fantasy week. But in that week (week 4) he caught seven of seven targets for 76 yards and two touchdowns finishing with 26.6 PPR points as the WR6 on the week. With Hollywood Brown a free agent in 2024, Wilson could be the best wide receiver on this team. There is some concern that Arizona will add an elite weapon in the draft, but even if they do, he’s still the number two option. This would likely cap his ceiling but he should still have a safe floor and provide many weeks of viability as a WR3 with WR2 upside. If Arizona doesn’t add anyone of note then it signals the staff has a clear investment in Wilson long-term, which is the type of thing dynasty managers are looking for when they acquire young, talented players. The best part about Wilson is there’s very little risk to betting on him. A 3rd round rookie pick will likely do it, and if not, add a fourth in. There’s a great chance Wilson will be better than either of the players you’d get at those spots, and if Wilson fails to produce you won’t be giving up anything that will have a long-term impact on your team.
Sell High
Patrick Mahomes (QB)
If you take the name out of it this would be a no-brainer, but that’s hard to do since it is the Mahomes name that makes selling him high even possible. Mahomes is valued as a top-2 QB in dynasty and I’m not sure it’s warranted. Over the last five years, Mahomes has been the QB7, QB1, QB4, QB4, QB7. In PPG he’s often been even worse. Is he a great quarterback in real life? Yes. Is he a great quarterback for fantasy? Also yes. The issue is that those who own him in dynasty often consider him off-limits when trades start to happen, as if he’s an an untouchable dynasty asset, and he shouldn’t be. All this while comparable players like Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson need another pick added on top to get to a quarterback they are currently, and have consistently outscored. Parting with a player like Mahomes is never going to be easy. He is a talented player and a valuable fantasy asset but he has not finished as a top-3 fantasy QB since 2020 and is being treated as if he does so routinely. Simply put, his value is higher than what he actually means to your dynasty squad. It is this value, however, that makes him worth selling. It is not unthinkable to be able to trade Mahomes for another top-8 QB plus a first-round pick. If you can get that deal done I would do it in a heartbeat and before the manager trading for Mahomes has second thoughts.
Christian McCaffrey (RB)
Let’s get this straight. I am not saying, based on what McCaffrey has done on the field, that he is overvalued. The production fantasy football managers have gotten from him has been phenomenal. His 2,023 total yards and 21 touchdowns from scrimmage this year have made him the top overall running back in fantasy by a wide margin. In PPR formats, McCaffrey has outscored the RB2 (Travis Etienne, Jr.) by 122.7 points. This gap is even more impressive when you realize that the top player at the QB, WR, and TE positions are just 34 fantasy points from the second-highest scoring player at their respective positions… combined. It is also true that McCaffrey showed no signs of slowing down this year and is positioned to have another great season in 2024. However, McCaffrey will turn 28 years old before next season and does have a history of injuries. At some point, the wheels are going to fall off and you don’t want to be caught holding the bag when they do, or having to settle for low compensation when you can get a massive haul for him now. McCaffrey is an elite asset in all formats and as such can be sold for a return that could leave you competitive for years. Selling high on the most valuable fantasy asset in all of football may not be the best move for every dynasty manager (depending on your squad), but if you can turn him into a solid WR or a younger RB that has the potential to be elite plus additional picks, especially if one of those picks is a 2024 1st round pick, then that’s something you have to at least consider.
Cooper Kupp (WR)
This one is tough for me. I love Cooper Kupp the player and what he has meant for fantasy football over the years. It would be hard to get rid of him, but for the right price, you should consider doing it. Kupp’s inclusion has less to do with Kupp than it does with the players valued under him. Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, and other aging veterans are under him in value but are similar to or outscoring him in PPG. He’s still being propped up by his 2021 season (when he was the No. 1 WR overall and beat the No. 2 WR by nearly 100 PPR points), but there are reasons for concern going into 2024. First, there’s the age. Kupp will be 31 years old when the 2024 season starts and has already been dealing with injuries in recent years. One of the keys to success in dynasty is knowing when to get rid of aging players in favor of younger players you can build a long-term roster around. That time may have come for Kupp. While some of his decline in production can be attributed to the hamstring injury he was dealing with, much of it can also be blamed on the emergence of young talents like Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams. Kupp only had four games (out of 12) where he finished among the top-12 wide receivers. Nacua had nine (six with Kupp on the field.) There are also questions as to whether Kupp will even be playing next year. I’d get off this train now while I still can and while his name still has value.
Tyreek Hill (WR)
Like McCaffrey, suggesting you sell high on Tyreek Hill is not about any decline in production or lack of belief in the player. Hill is a stud and shows no signs of any sort of decline at the moment. If anything he’s gotten better, improving on his outstanding 2022 campaign with 112 receptions, 1,717 yards, and 12 TDs in just 15 games in 2023. Hill is also an anomaly. As a receiver who is approaching 30 years of age and whose calling card is his speed, investing in him in dynasty would not normally be advisable. Yet, Hill does not seem to be slowing down and because of that continues to reward his owners handsomely. The fact that he continues to produce at an elite level helps those who may be concerned that the decline will come sooner rather than later. His value is as high as it has ever been and moving off of an aging player who needs that breakaway speed to continue to be elite makes a lot of sense. Hill has produced three straight seasons with 111+ receptions, 1,200+ yards, and 7+ scores, which makes him incredibly valuable to any team in your league who is in win-now mode. But once a receiver like Hill begins to lose a step you will see a steep decline in production and selling him at that point will be much more difficult. I’m not saying that will happen in 2024, but it’s certainly not out of the question which makes cashing in on his value now a shrewd move. If that isn’t enough to convince you, remember that Hill recently said, “I’m going to finish out this contract with the Dolphins,” said Hill, “and then I’m going to call it quits.” The current contract has him playing through 2025. If you’re a contending team and want to hold on for a couple more years, then so be it, but just know you’ll be passing on the perfect sell-high window. I’d get out now while you can.
D’Andre Swift (RB)
It has been nice to see Swift finally get a crack at a full-time role and succeed in that role. Swift has produced the first 1,000-yard rushing season of his career and has held up physically after seeing more than 250+ touches. So it may be a bit surprising that I’m recommending getting away from him now that he is a productive running back in a high-powered offense and is still only 24 years old, but hear me out. Swift will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason, which means his outlook past the 2023 postseason is a complete unknown. As good as he’s been there’s absolutely no guarantee the Eagles will re-sign him and we have no way of knowing what the free agent market will look like for Swift. Teams might not be that interested in signing a running back who has a history of injury concerns and a history of low production, regardless of what he did in 2023. We can’t even say with complete certainty that he’ll ever be a workhorse running back for a team again. I’ve never questioned Swift’s ability as a player and with the Eagles he had moments that proved what he is capable of doing when given the opportunity. But it would be foolish to ignore all the different ways his offseason could play out, and his value may never be as high as it is right now. In 2023, Swift found him on the perfect team, with the right amount of work, and managed to stay healthy. We can’t be sure that lightning will strike twice. If you can sell high on him, then I would at least be willing to entertain offers.
Zamir White (RB)
This one may seem odd since White is technically the backup in Las Vegas, but with Josh Jacobs being a free agent after this season and with how White has played in the last few games it’s possible that he has worked himself into a larger role. The former Georgia running back has been fantastic as the leading ball carrier over. White’s 285 yards and a score on 59 carries (4.8 yards per carry) in three games suggests White is capable of leading this backfield in 2024. The issue, though, isn’t could he, it’s will he get the chance and that’s where you start to see potential roadblocks. First, the team could bring back Jacobs. Jacobs has been good throughout his career and while he’s had a bit of a down year this season, he’s still a better overall running back than White, and with just a one-year age difference between them, Jacobs may be worth signing to a new deal. The Raiders could also sign another high-profile option in free agency. There is no shortage of solid running backs available. Players like Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley, and Austin Ekeler all come to mind. Then there’s the 2024 NFL Draft. The team could invest significant draft capital at the running back position and try to develop new, younger talent as the running back of the future. White has certainly made the most of his expanded role, and he has an intriguing dynasty outlook but there’s simply too much uncertainty surrounding him to feel confident in him moving forward. I’m not exactly sure what selling high on White would look like, but if someone is willing to overpay for the 24-year-old based on the assumption he’s the starting RB in 2024, then I would consider cashing out.
