Ten Deep Sleepers for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
With 15-team roto leagues and draft-and-holds gaining popularity, it’s more important than ever to know which guys to target late in drafts. It’s easy to find someone’s top 300 rankings to help you with your draft day decisions, but those rankings are bound to run out in the deepest leagues. Finding big breakouts this late in drafts could be what propels your team to a first-place finish. Examples of late-round picks who paid off big for fantasy owners in 2023 were Justin Steele, Zach Eflin, TJ Friedl, and J.P. Crawford. Here are ten deep sleepers to target currently being drafted outside the top 300 in ADP.
Chris Paddack, SP, Twins (NFBC: 310)
Chris Paddack returned very late last season and pitched out of the bullpen following his recovery from Tommy John surgery. He looked great out of the bullpen, averaging a career-high fastball velocity of 95.3 mph. He will be back in the rotation to start 2024, and it’s worth a late-round dart throw to see how he performs out of the gate. The former top prospect is also experimenting with a cutter this spring that could improve his arsenal. Still only 28 years old, Paddack still has time to prove that he still has what it takes, and he is essentially free at the end of drafts in standard-sized leagues.
Matt Wallner, OF, Twins (NFBC ADP: 311)
Matt Wallner had a breakout second half of the season in 2023, slashing .237/.354/.500 with 13 home runs in 65 games. He crushes the baseball, posting an 18.8% barrel rate, 91.9 mph average exit velocity, and 116.4 mph max exit velocity that you expect to see from the league’s most elite power hitters. He does strike out too much, 31.5% of the time, but he also walks a solid 11% of the time. His one glaring flaw is his inability to hit lefties, batting only .119 against them in 45 plate appearances. If he can improve against lefties and avoid being platooned, he will be a steal at his current ADP. Even if he does end up getting platooned, he will still be a very usable bat in deep daily lineup leagues where you can start him any day that he is facing a right-handed pitcher.
Colt Keith, 2B/3B, Tigers (NFBC ADP: 313)
Colt Keith is currently ranked as the number 22 prospect according to MLB.com, and it’s easy to see why. He slashed .306/.380/.552 with 27 HR and 101 RBI in 126 games between AA and AAA in 2023. The Tigers signed him to a 6-year extension this season, ensuring his spot on the opening-day roster, where he will reportedly play mostly second base. His power is legit and he doesn’t strike out excessively, so there’s no reason to think he can’t succeed at the MLB level. The only concern is that his home ballpark in Detroit could suppress some of his power numbers, but he is still a great deep sleeper for a CI or MI spot late in drafts.
Yuki Matsui, RP, Padres (NFBC ADP: 315)
Yuki Matsui signed a 5-year $28 million contract with the Padres this offseason, moving from the NPB to the MLB. The 28-year-old has been one of the best closers in Japan for the last decade, accruing 236 saves in his career and posting a 1.57 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 2023. Of course, he’s not expected to perform against MLB hitters at that level, but he still has the potential to be an above-average reliever and win the closing job in San Diego. His main competition, Robert Suarez, is coming off of a 2023 season where he pitched to a 4.23 ERA with only 24 strikeouts in 27.2 innings. Matsui has the most closing experience among the Padres’ bullpen by far, and I think there is a good chance he will become the Padres’ closer early into the season, if not at the start. He is worth the speculative late-round pick in leagues where saves are scarce or holds are a category.
Erick Fedde, SP, White Sox (NFBC ADP: 360)
It may feel weird to consider Erick Fedde, who tallied a 5.41 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in his career from 2017-2022 with the Nationals, a sleeper. However, he spent 2023 pitching in Korea, completely reinventing himself. He added a sweeper and adjusted how he threw the rest of his arsenal, leading to a 2.00 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 209 strikeouts in 180.1 innings pitched. These stats won him the KBO equivalents of the MVP and Cy Young awards, and now he is ready to return to the MLB with the White Sox in 2024. He wouldn’t be the first pitcher to reinvent themselves during a stint in his career, with Merrill Kelly doing the same thing before his return to the US in 2019. There is no way Fedde could sustain his Cy Young numbers facing a much higher level of competition, but he could prove to be a reliable asset to fantasy rotations that you can get at the end of drafts.
Zack Littell, SP, Rays (NFBC ADP: 369)
Zack Littell moved into the Rays rotation late last season, posting a 3.38 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts in 64.1 innings throughout 11 starts. His strikeout totals were deflated due to two starts where he stuck out just one batter each in 10.2 combined innings, but he hovered around a strikeout per inning in his other nine starts. His greatest strength is his control, walking only 5 batters in his time as a starter and posting a 3.2% walk rate for the season, putting him in the 100th percentile. He is locked into a rotation spot to start 2024 and should rack up plenty of wins with the Rays’ offense backing him. In weekly leagues his value is boosted further due to his RP eligibility, allowing you to start him there over a closer if you choose. He is a solid arm compared to others going around him in the late 300s ADP.
Garrett Whitlock, SP, Red Sox (NFBC ADP: 375)
Garrett Whitlock has been a popular sleeper pick in past years but ultimately hasn’t delivered as he has dealt with multiple injuries and stints in the bullpen. Last year’s final stats don’t look pretty, but his career numbers still come out to a 3.51 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 235 strikeouts in 223.1 innings. He also performed well out of the bullpen after returning from injury in August, striking out 25 in 20 innings. Despite his poor numbers in 2023, he still got a lot of whiffs on his changeup (32.0%) and sweeper (47.2%). Injuries in the Boston rotation have given an opportunity for him to win a starting job, and he possesses more upside than most other starters being drafted so late.
Brenton Doyle, OF, Rockies (NFBC ADP: 419)
Brenton Doyle only slashed .203/.250/.343 last season, but he did show some glimmers of fantasy relevance. He finished with 22 steals thanks to his 99th-percentile sprint speed and showed a little power with 10 home runs in 126 games. In deep leagues, he could be helpful regardless if you’re in a pinch for steals, but there’s also the chance he improves at the plate to return a better batting average and more home runs than last year. Playing in Coors Field is a huge bonus, so he can certainly be a useful pick as a bench bat in 5 OF leagues.
Jackson Merrill, OF, Padres, (NFBC ADP: 438)
Jackson Merrill is currently ranked as the 12th-best prospect according to MLB.com and is coming off of a 2023 season where he slashed .277/.326/.444 with 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 114 games between A+ and AA. He struck out only 12.1 percent of the time which should help with his adjustment to major league pitching, and he’s done well enough in spring training to be named the opening day centerfielder for the Padres. He will also start the year with SS eligibility in most leagues and should be a good bet for at least the same 15 home runs and stolen bases he had last season, with a solid batting average too. He has been drafted earlier in recent drafts, going closer to 300 overall in NFBC drafts in the last couple of weeks. He is a good upside play to take a shot on in that stage of drafts.
Jonathan Aranda, 1B, Rays (NFBC ADP: 529)
Jonathan Aranda has essentially been a quadruple-A player stuck with nowhere to go on the Rays. He has dominated AAA for the past three years but has struggled at the major league level in his brief stints there, never having a true chance to play every day. In 95 games in AAA in 2023, he slashed .339/.449/.613 with 25 home runs and 64 walks compared to 87 strikeouts. His great plate discipline translated nicely to the MLB, where he still posted a .340 OBP despite a .230 batting average in 32 games last season. He hasn’t been able to find the same quality of contact during his sporadic MLB playing time, but he may finally have the chance to play close to every day in 2024. He’s posted a 1.124 OPS in spring training and looks to be the opening day DH. There is always platoon risk with the Rays, but he gets the strong side of it and could potentially stay in the lineup against lefties if he can prove he can hit. Aranda shouldn’t be on your radar in standard-sized leagues but could make a nice bench bat for deeper roto or draft-and-hold leagues.
