Landing Quality RBs Later in Drafts
There are many different ways to assemble a championship-contending fantasy football roster. It’s generally a good idea to zig when you draft opponents zag and one of the trendy strategies that utilize this approach is the zero RB draft. There are modified versions of the zero RB strategy, but all go against the generally accepted principle of building your roster by targeting running backs early and often.
While running backs tend to be the highest-scoring players on a fantasy roster, they are also the riskiest investments. In addition to the highest rate of injuries, the increasing reliance on committee backfields makes even some early-round runners quite volatile. Zero RB drafters avoid this risk by loading up on wide receivers, tight ends, and even elite quarterbacks early and scour the mid-to-late round values in pass-catching and backup running backs.
Whether by choice or by an expected turn in the draft, here are some high-upside running backs for zero RB drafters to target in the middle and late rounds of their 2020 fantasy football drafts.
Middle Rounders with Top-10 Upside
David Johnson (Houston Texans) – With a little luck, David Johnson might still be on the board in the fourth or fifth round and that value is hard to pass up, even for someone looking to avoid running backs in the first four or five rounds. Johnson did look washed up last season, but he also fared well in some of FantasyData’s Advanced Efficiency Metrics. Johnson ranked 12th in fantasy points per opportunity (1.06) and tied for fifth among all running backs with five TD grabs. If Bill O’Brien gave the sluggish Carlos Hyde 245 carries, Johnson is a good bet to approach that same figure but also contribute 40-plus receptions. Of course, snagging a running back in the fourth round would be a modified zero RB approach, but Johnson’s PPR upside makes him a very desirable target.
Kareem Hunt (Cleveland Browns) – The Browns want to establish a dominant ground game and there should be plenty of touches to support two viable starters. Once Hunt served his 8-game suspension to open 2019, he averaged double-digit PPR points per game and snagged a healthy 37-of-44 targets. If Nick Chubb were to go down with an injury, Hunt would rekindle is elite upside which saw him post top-3 fantasy numbers in his rookie season with Kansas City. Even if Chubb stays healthy, Hunt has standalone RB2 value in PPR formats, making him a solid investment in the sixth round.
Ronald Jones (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Word has gotten out about Jones and his ADP has risen significantly, but he’s still a solid value at his RB28 ADP. Jones took over as Tampa’s starter in the second half of 2019 and Bruce Arians has already named him the club’s de facto starting running back. Jones added some muscle this offseason and has also made big improvements as a pass-catcher. Despite getting zero goal-line attempts last season, Jones managed to score six times on 172 carries. With Peyton Barber now in Washington, Jones should inherit all of those short-yardage attempts, which gives him double-digit TD upside in a Tom Brady-led offense.
Committee Backfield Bargains
D’Andre Swift (Detroit Lions) – Detroit seems firmly committed to using multiple backs but Swift should be the 1A to Kerryon Johnson’s 1B. Swift posted back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons at Georgia and might be the best pass-catching back in this deep 2020 rookie class. Meanwhile, Johnson has missed 14 games in two seasons and struggled as a runner in 2019, dipping down to 3.6 yards per tote. Both backs can catch well, but Swift is slightly bigger, faster, and more durable. If Johnson is sidelined once again, Swift would have the chance to showcase the considerable skills that he’s displayed in camp in a full-time role, making him an intriguing zero RB candidate in the fifth or sixth round.
Matt Breida (Miami Dolphins) – Both Dolphins backs Matt Breida and Jordan Howard are solid zero RB targets, but Breida offers significantly more big-play ability and is a plus in the passing game. Despite receiving just 123 carries last season in San Francisco, Breida ranked sixth in the league with a 6.5% breakaway rate and managed to break 31 tackles as a runner. He also created 18 yards per game, which was slightly more than Howard. Due to his pass-catching prowess, Breida is the better bet in PPR formats and he also comes significantly cheaper in the eighth or ninth round.
Tevin Coleman (San Francisco 49ers) – Even though Raheem Mostert is the presumptive starter, Kyle Shanahan is still going to use multiple backs and won’t hesitate to take a ‘hot hand’ approach to his starter. Coleman wasn’t fully healthy for a large chunk of 2019 but has regularly flashed big-play ability and been a good receiver. The 49ers will be one of the most run-heavy teams in football and Coleman is likely to have a fair amount of games leading the club in carries. He’s a solid value with a declining ADP who offers weekly RB2 upside.
Adrian Peterson (Washington Football Team) – Peterson won’t catch many passes but he’s going to open the season as Washington’s early-down back. Peterson showed he had plenty left in the tank last season, running for 893 yards and finishing second among all running backs with a 33.8% juke rate per FantasyData’s Advanced RB Efficiency Metrics. Even at the advanced age of 35, Peterson has a real shot at receiving 250 touches, which makes him an outstanding value and ideal zero RB pick
Candidates To Top 50 Targets
James White (New England Patriots) – James White is like the Jarvis Landry of running backs- despite posting outstanding PPR numbers each and every season and finishing as a solid weekly fantasy starter, nobody ever seems too excited to draft them. That makes White, once again, one of the top zero RB targets to draft in the seventh or eight rounds of every draft. New England’s backfield is quite unsettled, which could put White in-line for more carries, but his role as the pass-catching specialist is secure. The Patriots are trotting out a new offense, but White should once again flirt with triple-digit targets. Those massive receiving stats make White a must-have zero RB target and one worth pursuing as early as the latter part of Round 6.
Tarik Cohen (Chicago Bears) – Cohen isn’t build to be a between-the-tackles or every-down back but he excels at creating space and running routes, which makes him an ideal mid-round PPR option. Cohen saw a career-best 104 targets last season and has snagged 71 or more receptions in each of the past two seasons. David Montgomery could be limited to open the 2020 season and that only further instills Cohen as an excellent zero RB target, particularly in PPR formats.
Duke Johnson (Houston Texans) – Another puzzling enigma for fantasy football fans is figuring out why brilliant NFL coaches like Hue Jackson and Bill O’Brien won’t give Duke Johnson more opportunities to carry the rock. Duke Johnson excels as a receiver (at least 44 receptions in each of his five seasons) but he also stood out as a runner, ranking third among all running backs with a 7.2% breakaway run rate and sixth with 1.06 fantasy points per opportunity. If David Johnson falters or gets hurt, Duke Johnson would immediately contend with weekly RB1 numbers, making him an ideal mid-to-late round target in PPR leagues.
Chris Thompson (Jacksonville Jaguars) – Leonard Fournette absorbed 100 targets last season but that’s not going to happen in 2020 now that Chris Thompson has reunited with Jay Gruden, who takes over as the Jaguars’ offensive coordinator. According to the Fantasy Index, in Thompson’s last 25 games playing under Gruden, he’s caught 105 balls for 1,046 yards and five touchdowns. Extrapolated out to a 16-game pace and that’s 68 receptions and 670 yards- not bad at all for a guy going mostly undrafted.
Nyheim Hines (Indianapolis Colts) – Despite catching 107 balls in his first two seasons, the selection of Johnathan Taylor has caused Nyheim Hines to become the forgotten man in Indy’s backfield. Both Taylor and Mack are solid receivers as well, but new QB Philip Rivers has a history of dumping off a ton of targets to his backs and Hines is the favorite to be in on third downs. Even if he’s relegated to the club’s RB3, Hines is still expected to play enough snaps to be a viable PPR flex play.
Backups With Massive Upside
Tony Pollard (Dallas Cowboys) – Ezekiel Elliott has been remarkably durable in the NFL just as he was at Ohio State but when Pollard has gotten the chance to play, there’s been almost no dropoff in production. Pollard had a pair of 100-yard games for the Cowboys and averaged over five yards per carry on 86 change-of-pace attempts. If Elliott were forced out of action, Pollard would be an instant RB1.
Alexander Mattison (Minnesota Vikings) – Dalvin Cook is an elite, bell-cow back but has a dubious track record for staying healthy. Mattison himself was also injured in the two games that Cook missed but otherwise looked very capable during a rookie campaign that saw 100 carries and 10 receptions on 12 targets. Cook owners will want to target Mattison as a must-have hand-cuff but zero RB drafters could have an instant RB2 on their hands if Cook were to miss time again.
Phillip Lindsay (Denver Broncos) – Melvin Gordon was signed via free agency, but Lindsay might actually be the better player. An undrafted free agent, Lindsay has opened his career with consecutive 1000-yard seasons in Denver while catching 35 passes in each campaign. Gordon is no slouch as a receiver but has been held under four yards per carry in all but one of his five pro seasons while playing a full 16-game slate just once. The Broncos might simply pursue an even split on touches between their two backs, but Lindsay’s discounted ADP makes him a far more appealing draft target.
Boston Scott (Philadelphia Eagles) – Miles Sanders is one of the most coveted running backs in all of fantasy football but Boston Scott could see a surprising amount of touches. Doug Pederson has a long track record for utilizing committees and Scott was quite effective in this same offense last season. In the Eagles’ final four contests, Scott hauled in 23-of-25 targets and scored four touchdowns while exceeding a 44% snap share in three of the four games. If that trend carries over into 2020, Scott could have standalone PPR value even if Miles Sanders flirts with RB1 numbers.
Benny Snell (Pittsburgh Steelers) – As great a story as James Conner is, Conner hasn’t been able to stay healthy and Snell appears to have won the direct backup gig. Snell dropped a dozen pounds in the offseason and has shown improvements in pass protection and as a receiver. While Conner was sidelined last season, Snell rushed for over 90 yards in each of his two starts but wasn’t given much of a chance as a receiver. With the improvements that have been reported, Snell has the potential to be a solid RB2/3 in the event that Conner misses time again.
Darrel Williams (Kansas City Chiefs) – Williams has won the backup gig behind first-round rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire and is a sneaky bet to have a double-digit weekly role even if CEH has a three-down role. Listed at 224 pounds, Williams has the potential to earn short-yardage work but can also be a solid pass-catcher. He’ll likely open the season as a change-of-pace option but that won’t preclude him from seeing at least one-third of Kansas City’s snaps all season long. If Edwards-Helaire were to miss any action, Williams would have the opportunity to shine as the starter in the league’s most potent offense.
Late-Round Fliers
Damien Harris (New England Patriots) – After being selected in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft, Harris had some sleeper appeal last season. Then he logged all of 10 snaps for a New England squad that had some issues running the ball. Fast forward to 2020 and Harris has taken advantage of the absence of Sony Michel to get some run with the first team and by all accounts, has looked pretty good. It’s hard to handicap what we’ll see out of the new-look Patriots offense, but Harris could push for a weekly role in a committee, which makes him an appealing dart throw with your final pick.
Frank Gore (New York Jets) – Avoiding anything Adam Gase related is generally a good idea. But with that, Gase has an acrimonious relationship with Le’Veon Bell and seems determined to send some kind of message to his team. When Gore and Gase last worked together, it was Gore who led Miami in carries. Despite being ancient by running back standards, it’s conceivable that Gase will once again look to spell Bell with Gore. He’s not near the athlete he once was, but Gore can still contribute as a situational runner.
Chase Edmonds (Arizona Cardinals) – Kenyan Drake is expected to be an every-down player for Kliff Kingsbury’s potent attack, but Drake was spotted in camp wearing a walking boot. Little is known about the severity of this injury but it has freed up first-team snaps for Edmonds, who has flashed some big-play ability for the Cardinals. Last season, Edmonds rushed 27 times for 126 yards and three scores against the Giants and finished the year with a healthy 5.0 yards per rush average. Kingsbury has indicated that Edmonds will have a role regardless of Drake’s health, so that makes Edmonds a solid zero RB target to consider late in drafts.
Joshua Kelley (Los Angeles Chargers) – Melvin Gordon got 17 touches per game last year for the Chargers and word out of LA is that rookie fourth-rounder Joshua Kelley may have surpassed incumbent Justin Jackson on the depth chart. We might simply see a rotation, but if Kelley gets the first crack at the Gordon role, he’s going to warrant enough touches to be a viable RB4 or FLEX play.
Carlos Hyde (Seattle Seahawks) – Chris Carson is Seattle’s unquestioned starter but Carson has never been able to make it through an entire 16-game slate. Hyde is rather limited but had his best NFL performance to date last season as Houston’s main runner. As long as Rashaad Penny is still dealing with a knee injury, Hyde is locked into Seattle’s RB2 spot, making him a decent hand-cuff for Carson owners, and solid zero RB target in deeper leagues.
Ty Montgomery (New Orleans Saints) – Sean Payton does an excellent job of finding creative ways to utilize versatile players. Payton has had success giving touches to underwhelming running backs in the past and continues to put QB Taysom Hill in favorable situations to take advantage of his skill set. Montgomery could easily be a roster cut, but if he makes the Saint’s’ opening day roster, he is just the kind of gadget player who could make an impact with a handful of touches each week.
