Fantasy Football Recap
Many in the fantasy community feel for the Tagliere family after the passing of Mike “Tags” Tagliere over the weekend after battling COVID-19. There’s a GoFundMe account created to support the Tagliere family.
We’re raising funds for the Tagliere family. If you’d like to consider helping, please visit the link below for more information.https://t.co/fgp2npcmYN
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) September 25, 2021
Tags inspired many folks, including myself, to write and contribute about fantasy football.
It’s hard to transition from that to Week 3 fantasy football, but we do our best. That said, let’s discuss the Week 3 injuries to monitor, particularly with stud Christian McCaffrey. Then we dive into the Week 3 highlights, wonders, and disappointments. Although we don’t have many advanced stats, we highlight the typical opportunity-related metrics to monitor. A couple of struggling offenses in the Bears and Falcons seem like buy low trade opportunities.
Injuries to Monitor
- Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) left Thursday night’s game with a hamstring injury. The Panthers ruled out McCaffrey almost immediately, which could indicate a significant issue or playing it safe. Chuba Hubbard stepped up in his absence, and the reasons for optimism surround the passing-game usage. Hubbard will likely need to rely on volume rather than efficiency, given the Panthers’ poor Run Blocking Efficiency.
- A.J. Brown (hamstring) didn’t return to Sunday’s game with a hamstring issue. That’s not a good sign for Brown as one of the most explosive receivers in the league. Julio Jones should see an increase in targets in Brown’s absence. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine caught all four of his targets for 53 receiving yards and one touchdown and could be a deep-league waiver wire target.
- James White (hip) left on a cart. That’s unfortunate news as he provides a safe PPR floor. J.J. Taylor looks like he could step into the pass-catching role with the Patriots needing pass-catchers. Brandon Bolden earned a tiny bit of work with three catches on four targets for 23 receiving yards. Taylor looks like the hotter name, but neither may have much fantasy value to replace White.
- Sterling Shepard (hamstring) joined several other key players on Sunday with injuries. After two weeks of top-10 production with 20.9 (No. 9) fantasy points per game, the entire offense takes a hit. Hopefully, Shepard doesn’t miss much time as one of the most productive receivers in the league.
- Saquon Barkley gave fantasy managers a scare by leaving Sunday’s game. However, he returned to finish the game with 16 carries for 51 rushing yards and one touchdown. Barkley also added six catches on seven targets for 43 receiving yards. That’s the type of opportunities and usage we want to see from Barkley.
- Darrell Henderson (ribs) missed Sunday’s game after missing practice throughout the week. Sony Michel received most of the running back opportunities in Henderson’s absence.
- Dalvin Cook (ankle) missed Sunday’s game after early reports he would likely miss their contest against the Seahawks. Alexander Mattison filled in nicely and productively.
- K.J. Hamler (knee) left Sunday’s game with a knee injury. Hamler made a 28-yard catch but didn’t factor in much outside of that, partly due to the injury.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (rib) left the game with a rib injury after three receptions for 25 receiving yards. With Diontae Johnson out, Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool expected to earn more looks.
Week 3 Highlights
Alexander Mattison Dominates In Dalvin Cook’s Absence
As one of the top backup running backs in the league, the Vikings fed Alexander Mattison the rock with 26 carries for 112 rushing yards. Mattison hauled in six of eight targets for 59 receiving yards too. That type of production looks like Dalvin Cook. Fantasy managers love to see the elite usage with 34 opportunities and 171 total yards.
Peyton Barber Rushes for 111 Yards
Don’t look now, but Peyton Barber led the Raiders with 23 carries, 111 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown. The Raiders used Barber at the goal line for a one-yard touchdown and also involved him in the passing game with three catches on five targets with 31 receiving yards.
Through 2 games, Derrick Henry averages 3.4 (No.2) Yds After Contact. 79.1% of his yards came AFTER contact in Week 2.
Peyton Barber ranks 6th w/ 3.2 Yards After Contact but ranks dead last with -0.7 Yards Before Contact. Barber totaled -9 Yds B4 Contact & 128.1% of Yds After
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) September 22, 2021
Barber ranked highly in Week 2 in yards after contact, but it’s still Peyton Barber. However, it appears Barber served in the Josh Jacobs early-down rushing role with some pass-catching opportunities as well. Add Barber if Jacobs’ injury lingers since the Raiders use Drake more as a receiver in past games.
A.J. Green Leads the Cardinals Receivers
What year is this? We have A.J. Green leading the Cardinals’ receivers with five receptions on six targets (17.6%) for 112 receiving yards. Christian Kirk trailed right behind with seven of eight (23.5%) for 104 receiving yards. Unfortunately, exciting rookie Rondale Moore put up a dud catching both targets (5.9%)for…one receiving yard. DeAndre Hopkins came into the week questionable and thus finished with only three catches on six targets (17.6%) for 21 receiving yards. The Cardinals continue to spread the ball around, evidenced by the target shares for the four receivers. Overall, this receiver group will end up a bit more of a headache than we’d like.
Sony Michel Dominates the Rams Backfield
With Darrell Henderson out, Sony Michel dominated the Rams backfield. Michel garnered 20 carries for 67 rushing yards. His 83% rush share indicates the Jake Funk hype may be hype for now. However, against a tough Buccaneers defense, Michel couldn’t muster much. Michel even caught three of four targets for 12 receiving yards. Expect Michel to continue dominating opportunities for the Rams with Henderson out.
Rams final HB snap count #TBvsLAR
Sony Michel 48
Jake Funk 14— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 27, 2021
49ers Backfield
With Elijah Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty ruled out, the 49ers turned to rookie Trey Sermon with several deep-league options in Jacques Patrick, Kerryon Johnson, and Trenton Cannon. Sermon led the 49ers in rushing attempts with ten carries for 31 yards and one rushing touchdown. He also caught two of three targets for three receiving yards.
Only fullback Kyle Juszczyk received more than two carries, as he finished with five for 14 rushing yards. However, Juszczyk caught all four of his targets for 37 receiving yards and one touchdown. Kyle Shanahan loves Juszczyk, so he may factor in a bit more than some would like. Hopefully, it doesn’t impact Sermon or the other 49ers’ running back value. The snap counts align with the usage of Juszczyk and Sermon in Week 3 too.
49ers final RB snap count #GBvsSF
Kyle Juszczyk 48
Trey Sermon 41Out of 70 snaps
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 27, 2021
Week 3 Wonders
Le’Veon Bell Type Numbers By Najee Harris
Holy, Najee Harris, leading the Steelers with 19 targets (32.8% target share), 14 receptions, and 102 receiving yards. That’s Le’Veon Bell-type numbers in his prime. The buy-low window closed on Harris in Week 3, and we love the pass-catching usage. However, the offensive line hasn’t looked great with a 21.7 (No. 41) Run Blocking Efficiency through two weeks. Let’s see if the high pass-catching usage continues, which seems like it should.
Najee Harris had 19 targets today. That’s the second-highest target total from a running back since targets started getting recorded in 1992. (Kamara had 20 in 2018.)
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) September 26, 2021
Buffalo Passing Game Back On Track
After a couple of concerning games for the Bills passing game, Josh Allen and Bills receivers bounced back. Allen tossed 358 yards with four passing touchdowns. Cole Beasley led the team with 11 receptions on 13 targets for 98 receiving yards. Emmanuel Sanders (my bonus sleeper pick) hauled in two receiving touchdowns on five of six targets for 94 receiving yards. Although Stefon Diggs only hauled in six of ten targets for 62 receiving yards, he’s still a WR1. Next week, the Bills face Houston, and their passing offense should feast.
It’s Mike Williams WR1 SZN
Through two games, Mike Williams scored over 22 fantasy points in each contest. Williams ranked No. 14 and No. 10 in Week 1 and 2. He garnered a 25.6% (No. 19) target share and 27.7% (No. 40) Air Yards Share in the first two games. In Week 3, Williams hauled in seven of nine targets (23.7%) for 122 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns.
Although Keenan Allen bested Williams with a 31.6% target share, Williams keeps scoring a touchdown and a red zone threat with five (No. 1) red-zone targets entering Week 3. Unless someone’s overpaying via trade, I hesitate in selling high on Wiliams with the offseason narrative of Williams taking on the Michael Thomas role from New Orleans.
Is It Finally Cordarrelle Patterson SZN (8 Years Later)?
Against the Giants, Cordarrelle Patterson led the Falcons with 82 receiving yards after he hauled in six of seven targets. Although Patterson lacked production on the ground with seven carries for 20 rushing yards, Matt Ryan fed him a healthy 19.4% target share. The gap keeps closing with Patterson and Mike Davis from a production standpoint. That said, Patterson puts himself in the weekly flex conversation if these pass-catching opportunities continue.
Week 3 Disappointments
Uh Oh, Ty’Son Williams
The Ravens won on a last-second 66-yard field goal by Justin Tucker against the Lions. Like in basketball, Tucker’s shot took a fortunate bounce off the crossbar and through the upright. However, the Week 3 disappointment involves the Ravens running game particularly, Ty’Son Williams, who looked ready to smash against the Lions. Williams finished with five carries for 22 rushing yards and came up empty on his lone target.
Ravens final HB snap count #BALvsDET
Ty’Son Williams 29
Latavius Murray 19
Devonta Freeman 9— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 26, 2021
Latavius Murray matched Ty’Son Williams in carries, but neither back looked effective. However, Williams still bested Murray in snaps played on Sunday. That’s one tiny piece of the opportunity pie, and it’s something to monitor moving forward, especially since the Ravens lead for the early parts of the game heading into the second half.
Bears Offensive Struggles
Admittedly, my hype for Justin Fields and the Bears offense may have gone too high. The Bears struggled to string anything on offense with only 42 plays run with over 20 minutes of possession. Meanwhile, the Browns possessed the ball almost twice as much over 39 minutes. Fields went 6-for-20 for 68 passing yards and rushed three times for 12 yards.
Justin Fields has been sacked 8 times today
He only has 5 completions… 😬
pic.twitter.com/KVJLBcclPA— PFF (@PFF) September 26, 2021
Don’t panic long-term with Fields, and fantasy managers could consider streaming Fields against the Lions in Week 4. However, we may want to use safer options until we see Fields and the Bears offense clicking. Fields received an X-ray on his throwing hand, but he claims he feels fine.
Attempt to buy low on David Montgomery and Allen Robinson, who serve as the top-2 options on the Bears offense. With disappointing games by Montgomery and Robinson, they still accounted for 82 (71.9%) of the team’s 114 total yards. The low possession time and plays run plus lack of production provide fantasy managers with a buy-low opportunity.
Trade For the Falcons Studs
After a few down games, it’s time to buy low on Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts. Those that drafted Pitts as a top-5 tight end may start worrying. Ridley earned a healthy 30.6% target share with eight receptions and 61 receiving yards. That’s higher than the 25.8% (No. 10) target share in 2020 and 23.7% (No. 26) in 2021. The volume is there, but we haven’t seen the blowup game quite yet.
Although Kyle Pitts only earned three targets with two catches on 35 receiving yards, the Falcons invested a high draft pick, and they need to involve him more. We have to give credit to the Giants defense that kept the Falcons in check. Through two weeks, Pitts ran the 3rd most routes (67) with the 6th highest target share (18.4%) and the 4th highest Air Yards Share (27%). The usage for Pitts remains in the top tier of the position, and it should translate into production soon.
