Fantasy Football Beneath the Surface: Week 11

Fantasy Football Beneath the Surface: Week 11

Another week of NFL football, another pile of data to sift through looking for clues. Clues as to what leads to certain results and clues for speculating what might be coming next. They say, “looks can be deceiving.” The same can be said for surface-level statistics in fantasy football. In this weekly article series, I will be looking beneath the statistical surface, beyond the standard box score, using the premium statistics provided by FantasyData, including advanced and efficiency metrics across the fantasy skill positions, to search for puzzle pieces that fit together.

Fantasy Points Per Game, Expected Points, and FPOE: Top 36 WRs

Week 11 of the NFL season is upon us. Last week I dove into the Top 36 RBs, moving away from the opportunity-based peripheral statistics I have been focusing on this season, instead looking at production. Specifically, I looked beneath the surface of the thing that ultimately drives the fantasy football bus: Fantasy points. Fantasy points per game, Expected Points per game, and Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE). I did this for RBs and promised I would cover the rest of the fantasy skill positions in future articles. I am a man of my word. So let’s talk WRs.

In this article, I will be looking at the points per reception (PPR) Top 36 WRs, based on fantasy points (FPTS) scored per game (PPG). I will also include Expected Points (EP) and FPOE. This Top 36 group includes a minimum of four games played and does not include Week 11 Thursday Night Football.

You can find last week’s article about RBs here. In that article, I provided a brief explanation of these advanced statistics and will repeat that here, as it is helpful to know why these metrics are helpful.

Expected Points for individual players factor in specific context that attaches varying degrees of value to each opportunity (targets, rush attempts, and receptions). The idea behind EP and FPOE is that not all opportunities are the same. Some opportunities are more valuable than others. For example, a WR who gets five red zone targets would be more appealing than a WR who gets five targets between the 20s. The box score will only show the five targets for both players, but the Expected Points would be higher for the WR receiving the red zone targets. A red zone target is considered higher value than a target between the 20s because of the increased odds of that target resulting in a TD. Similarly, a higher expected points value is attached to RB targets compared to RB rush attempts. There are a variety of variables comprising the recipe for EP:

• Value of rush attempts vs targets
• Down and distance
• Yard line
• Depth of receiving target

With EP you can calculate FPOE, which shows the players who are underperforming or overperforming in PPG compared to what is expected. Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE on Twitter) with The Fantasy Footballers wrote a great series last offseason explaining EP and FPOE. The article series covering the fantasy skill positions can be found here.

For the charts in this article, the column by which the data is sorted will have a yellow-highlighted column title.

Top 36 WRs: Fantasy Points, Expected Points, and FPOE

The first chart is sorted by actual PPG, followed by the same data sorted by Expected Points so you can see what the Top 36 WRs would look like only looking at the expectations. This Top 36 is based on a minimum of four games played.

It’s funny to me sometimes how much time we spend leading up to a season ranking players, adjusting ranks, unleashing our bold takes, and trying to determine who the sleeper candidates are who could ascend into the WR1 ranks. And yet, through 10 weeks, the Top 7 PPR WRs are exactly who you would expect. Other than DeAndre Hopkins, the other six WRs currently in the Top 7 were ranked in the Top 7 according to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) at the start of the 2022 season. Hopkins has shown he is not yet washed since returning from his suspension, but having only played half the number of games can skew PPG numbers in either direction. Hopkins is still a borderline elite fantasy WR, but I don’t think he finishes the season in the Top 5.

Jaylen Waddle

The first surprise in this data is Jaylen Waddle’s WR9 rank. I have been high on Waddle since he entered the NFL and I do think he is a fantasy WR1 in the NFL. The surprise factor is based on where he was ranked coming into the season. The same FantasyPros ECR had Waddle as the WR18, which he has cut in half through 10 weeks. However, not surprisingly, Waddle also has the second-highest positive FPOE per game and the greatest difference between his EP rank (WR25) and actual PPG rank of WR9 (16 spots). If you remember from last week’s article, FPOE can be interpreted in different ways. It can simply mean a player is a better fantasy points producer than expected. With the expectations attached to preseason rankings, a player may be overperforming because our expectations were inaccurate to begin with. It can also mean a player is overperforming in an unsustainable way. That is where the analysis comes in (and the part I love): Determining the potential reasons for a player’s FPOE being far from zero, whether positive or negative. EP and FPOE are helpful because they are relatively simple metrics that turn on the spotlights. They say “will the players with positive and negative FPOEs please come forward.” That’s not to say there is no value in seeing a player with an FPOE close to neutral. It just means those players are producing right around expectation (based on the factors comprising the EP metric). Also to clarify, the EP metric and preseason ECR ranks are apples and oranges. The preseason ranks are based on projections while EP are based on what has happened. So when a player’s preseason ECR and EP ranks are similar it is mostly a coincidence. What it ultimately means is a player is performing outside of two different sets of expectations. I am taking liberties here in equating a projection to an expectation (they are not the same), but I think it gets the point across in this discussion.

So let’s look closer at Waddle. Is the significance of his positive difference between expectation and reality a fluke? Is it 100% sustainable? Is it somewhere in the middle? As with most questions like this, the answer likely lies somewhere in the middle, but with Waddle, closer to the 100% sustainable end of the spectrum. Starting with the low-hanging fruit, Waddle’s QB has been playing much better than most expected. I talked in some detail about Tua Tagovailoa’s advanced statistics in the Week 9 Breakdown. And you’ll see in a future article that Tagovailoa is among the league leaders in positive FPOE among the Top 30 QBs.

Starting with some of the positives, Waddle has put up the following numbers:

• Yards per route run (YPRR): 2.74 (4^th)
• Yards per team pass attempt (YPTPA): 2.47 (9^th)
• Yards after catch (YAC) per reception: 6.12 (6^th)
• QB Rating when targeted: 126.4 (3^rd)
• Receiving Expected Points Added (EPA) per game: 5.7 (2^nd)

Add to this the Dolphins leading the league in WR target share while also being above the league average in passing targets per game, and you can see a highly efficient WR in Waddle, operating in a pass-friendly offense with a QB who is also exceeding expectations, which are the primary reasons for Waddle’s FPOE.

🎯Updated Team Target Shares🎯

Shows each team’s target share to WR, TE, and RB through Week 10.

Includes each team’s total targets per game compared to league average so you can see the size of the market the pass catchers are sharing from. pic.twitter.com/Ati7oAnkdS

— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) November 17, 2022

So, case closed right? This is 100% sustainable. While I do think Waddle leans toward this, some stats are keeping Waddle from being a slam dunk WR1:

• Target share: 22.3% (29^th)
• Targets per route (Target Rate): 23.4% (18^th)
• Red zone targets per game: 0.70 (27^th)
• Routes per game: 32.1 (26^th)
• Route participation: 84.0% (29^th)

Waddle is highly efficient with the opportunities he is provided, but his share of the team WR opportunities and high-value targets is not quite enough for Waddle to climb much higher than a low-end WR1. Waddle also has an 11.8% TD rate (receiving TDs per target), which is the eighth-highest in the league. The TD rate itself is a positive. It is higher than average but not by an amount that screams negative regression. However, a double-digit TD rate while also only seeing a 27^th-best 0.70 red zone targets per game means Waddle’s TD receptions trend toward the longer variety, which increases FPOE, but are a piece of Waddle’s puzzle that can be difficult to maintain.

All in all, Waddle is having a monster season, and to be within the Top 10 while sharing the field with Tyreek Hill (WR4) is a tribute to Waddle and also to Tagovailoa, as supporting two Top 10 fantasy WRs is no small feat.

Stefon Diggs

While Stefon Diggs is not a surprise in the Top 7, he has exceeded EP numbers in climbing to the overall WR1, bolstered by his league-leading 5.6 FPOE per game. Now, the top of the WR leaderboard is in an unfortunate shake-up, with Cooper Kupp’s injury and Ja’Marr Chase has also been out with an injury since Week 7. However, these are “per game” numbers so everything Kupp has done is included, and Chase has a seven-game sample size. Point being, while there have been some high-profile WR injuries, injury is not what caused Diggs to ascend to the overall WR1 in PPR PPG.

There are some similarities between Waddle and Diggs factoring into their positive FPOE. However, QB is not one of them, as Josh Allen was projected, expected, and is a stud. But looking at the same advanced data for Diggs as we did for Waddle (other than YAC/reception), a similar trend appears:

• Yards per route run (YPRR): 2.89 (2^nd)
• Yards per team pass attempt (YPTPA): 2.83 (3^rd)
• QB Rating when targeted: 131.6 (2^nd)
• Receiving Expected Points Added (EPA) per game: 6.4 (1^st)

Where Diggs elevates himself into a tier above Waddle is with some of the opportunity statistics to go along with his elite efficiency:

• Target share: 30.2% (7^th)
• Targets per route (Target Rate): 29.3% (6^th)
• Red zone targets per game: 1.67 (Tied for 2^nd)
• Routes per game: 37.9 (12^th)
• Route participation: 85.0% (26^th)

Diggs still trails some of his colleagues in the routes department, but you can see his target data is also at an elite level. This is why, as the current situations stand, Diggs has the overall WR1 in his range of outcomes and Waddle does not. A simple explanation of FPOE in certain cases is as follows:

Volume and opportunity are largely what set the “expectation” in EP and FPOE. Efficiency is largely what causes FPOE to move away from neutral. With Diggs, his volume and opportunity are already setting a high expectation with an EP rank of WR6. It is his elite efficiency that has allowed him to leapfrog WRs with a higher EP. Waddle’s volume and opportunity set a lower bar with his EP (ranked as the EP WR25). And his top-level efficiency takes him further above expectation than anyone, with his actual PPG rank being 16 spots higher than his EP rank. But until Waddle’s EP increases, he is near the cap of his positive FPOE.

Some other WRs who are notably exceeding EP (5+ spots higher in actual PPG rank compared to EP rank): Terry McLaurin (+6), Tyler Boyd (+8), Brandon Aiyuk (+8), Tee Higgins (+8), Jakobi Meyers (+8), Gabe Davis (+9), Allen Lazard (+9), AJ Brown (+9), and Tyler Lockett (+12).

Deebo Samuel

What goes up must come down. As we saw with RBs (and any data set like this), there is the other end of the FPOE spectrum. WRs who are underperforming based on expectations. Leading this group in negative FPOE is 49ers’ WR Deebo Samuel. Currently sitting at WR25 in PPR PPG according to FantasyData, Samuel is the biggest WR disappointment so far in 2022, based on his price of acquisition. According to FantasyData, Samuel’s Average Draft Position (ADP) in PPR redraft formats was WR7, and I saw him going earlier than that in a lot of drafts. Samuel’s preseason FantasyPros ECR was a little lower at WR11, but looking from either angle WR25 is a massive disappointment.

Looking at Samuel’s EP, if he met those expectations he would be at WR9, which would also put him in the range of that other set of expectations, the projected WR rank and projected value based on ADP. At WR25, Samuel is 16 spots lower than expected and has the most negative FPOE at -2.7. He is scoring almost three fewer PPR fantasy points per game than what would be expected based on the EP formula. That is a significant “per game” number. Here are Samuel’s 2022 volume/opportunity numbers so far:

• Target share: 26.1% (15^th)
• Targets per route (Target Rate): 25.2% (12^th)
• Red zone targets per game: 1.13 (14^th)
• Routes per game: 30.3 (34^th)
• Route participation: 87.7% (24^th)

Similar to Diggs, Samuel has solid target numbers but lower-end routes numbers. Also important here is that these numbers are very close to what Samuel did in 2021, which is why his EP is still set at a WR9 rank. Even looking at his TD and rushing numbers, things look similar to 2021 (other than his rushing TD rate). Samuel is averaging 3.5 rush attempts per game (3.7 in 2021), and 20.6 rushing yards per game (22.8 in 2021), but only one rushing TD, which is a 3.6% TD rate. Samuel had eight rushing TDs in 2021 for a 13.6% TD rate. Regarding receiving TDs, Samuel’s rate was 2.9% in 2021 and currently sits at 3.3% in 2022. Now, we knew coming into 2022 that Samuel might not be able to produce a 13.6% rushing TD rate again, but that does not factor into his EP and FPOE, which are based on each of his rush attempts and targets from this year. That TD rate would not be expected, so not achieving that TD rate would not impact FPOE. The 49ers are middle-of-the-pack when it comes to passing targets per game, currently at 3.1 fewer targets per game than the league average. However, they are seventh in the league and one of only nine teams who target WRs on 60%+ of their targets. Samuel averaged 7.7 targets per game in 2021 and he is averaging 7.7 targets per game in 2022. Samuel’s YAC/reception is close to 10 again in 2022. It has been Samuel’s efficiency numbers that tell the story.

• Yards per route run (YPRR): 1.70 (26^th)
• Yards per team pass attempt (YPTPA): 1.62 (28^th)
• QB Rating when targeted: 73.8 (36^th)
• Receiving Expected Points Added (EPA) per game: 0.0 (36^th)

There is no way to sugarcoat these numbers. They are abysmal. For comparison, here are Samuel’s numbers in a few of these categories in 2021:

• Yards per route run (YPRR): 2.99 (2^nd)
• Yards per team pass attempt (YPTPA): 2.90 (2^nd)
• Receiving Expected Points Added (EPA) per game: 3.15 (11^th)

Samuel’s decreased efficiency is the primary reason for his negative FPOE.

Some other WRs who are notably underperforming compared to EP (5+ spots lower in actual PPG rank compared to EP rank): Davante Adams (-5), Curtis Samuel (-5), Michael Pittman (-9), Rondale Moore (-9), Adam Thielen (-14), Garrett Wilson (-15), DK Metcalf (-15), and Chris Godwin (-17).

What I like about looking at EP and FPOE is that it does lead to additional questions as to what is causing the difference. And a brief study as was done in this article drives home the importance of efficiency metrics such as YPPR and YPTPA.

I did not have the time or space to break down each of the other notable overperforming or underperforming WRs. If you would like that breakdown for any of those players feel free to reach out to me.

Next week I will be covering these same topics with TEs and QBs.

Thanks for reading! If you have any questions about the data used in this article or about fantasy football in general, feel free to hit me up on Twitter.