As part of our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Kit here at FantasyData, we have created a custom strength of schedule projection model with in-depth analysis to help you in your quest for a championship title. Strength of schedule (SOS) is a tool I have used ever since I started playing fantasy as a part of draft preparation. This, along with personal rankings and ADP are cornerstones of conducting a solid draft. One of the best parts about using SOS is being able to compare two players you have ranked pretty much identically with similar ADPs to see which one might have a slight edge with an easier schedule, especially in the final quarter of the fantasy season (Weeks 13-16) when wins matter the most.
Method of Projection and Numbers to Know
There are a few different ways people project SOS for an upcoming fantasy season. The way I prefer to do this is by using a recent sample of the last two seasons’ fantasy points allowed ranks and points per game (PPG) allowed. I compare these side-by-side to find an average that I am happy with and use that for the upcoming season to determine where a team could potentially rank against a position in fantasy points allowed. It’s a fairly simple method, but in doing this, I have found that most teams don’t have a drastic change in fantasy points allowed from one season to the next. To back that up, here are some key numbers worth knowing before we dive into this more:
The average amount of ranks that a team moved between the 2018-2019 seasons when it comes to fantasy points allowed to TEs was nine spots, though 20 teams in the league moved less than 10 spots. The nine spots in ranking movement has been consistent amongst all positions in the league. Where we see a much smaller discrepancy at this position compared to the rest is in the fantasy points per game category, which is to be expected given that TEs don’t generally accrue as many points as QB, RB, or WR. The average amount of PPG a team moved between the last two seasons was just 1.6 PPG and 14 teams moved fewer than one point per game, making this a seemingly reliable model.
This model isn’t without its outliers and unexpected movements, however, with teams like the Cardinals who went from ranking 29th against TEs in 2018 to allowing the absolute most points to them in 2019 and by a pretty wide margin. They literally averaged one TD per game to the position. They’re the only team within the top five for this season that saw significant movement between the last two seasons and seven of the teams in the top 10 moved less than two PPG on average as well. Touchdowns are everything when looking at the value of TEs especially, so it is worth knowing that the teams who allowed the most TDs to the position last season were the Cardinals (16), Raiders (10), and Browns (10).
The bottom of the rankings or the teams that allow the fewest fantasy points to the position shows even stronger consistency between the last two seasons. None of the teams that rank bottom five moved more than one PPG between the last two seasons. Only three teams within the bottom 10 moved more than the average nine spots between the last two seasons as well. Similarly looking at just TDs allowed from last season to the position, the Vikings gave up just one TD to a TE last season — fewest in the league. The Jets, Broncos, and Ravens weren’t far behind them with each allowing just three TDs to TEs.
Now that we have some of the basic details covered, let’s look specifically at the best and worst SOS for TEs this season!
Top Five Easiest Strength of Schedule for TE: Full Season
1. Baltimore Ravens
Mark Andrews has been one of my favorite TEs to target in drafts for this season and that was before I even really started to dig into SOS stuff. This further cements that thought for me. His schedule starts off with three-straight cupcake matchups against teams that rank inside the top five and two of those will be at home. He won’t get his first truly difficult matchup until a Week 6 road tilt against the Eagles who give up miles to WRs in fantasy but just inches to TEs. Even the bye week is conveniently situated for the Ravens as they will get a week to rest before their only back-to-back road games of the season between Weeks 9-10. A Week 11 matchup against the Titans will be their only potentially difficult matchup in the back half of the season, but there is a lot of wiggle room in that matchup. After giving up the fewest fantasy points to TEs in 2018, the Titans allowed the fifth-most in 2019, so that could actually boost the ease of the schedule here if they struggle again this season. Lastly, Andrews and the Ravens get three home games during the most crucial four-game stretch for fantasy between Weeks 13-16.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
The new-look Chargers offense gets just an average SOS for its WRs, but both the TEs, RBs, and QBs are gifted with top-two easiest schedules for the 2020 fantasy season. Hunter Henry will be the primary target here barring injury, but before we get too excited about this schedule, we really need to see that the team can have success under center now that longtime QB Philip Rivers is gone. This schedule starts with three matchups in against teams in the top-10 with the Panthers being the only average or potentially below-average matchup based on them ranking 28th last season. Both the Saints and Jets have consistently been tougher matchups between the last two seasons, with the Jets especially stingy allowing a league-low 5.1 PPG on average. After Week 6, the only really bad matchup for the rest of the season will come on the road against the Bills in Week 12. The important Week 13-16 stretch offers them three games at home and their only road game is against the most friendly defense when it comes to fantasy points allowed to TEs, the new Las Vegas Raiders.
3. New York Jets
We have seen nothing but poor SOS for the Jets passing game with their schedule ranking 29th at QB and 28th at WR. Where we see some ease in their schedule is at RB and TE where they both rank third-easiest. It certainly won’t feel that way at first for the Jets TE crew as back-to-back matchups against the Bills and 49ers will likely get their season off on the wrong foot. Things progressively get easier from there, however, as they get three straight matchups against teams in the top 12 with two being at home. A Week 7 tilt against the Bills once more will be the last roadblock in the season for the Jets TEs as they will only face one more team through the rest of the season vs. the Pats in Week 9 who rank below average in points allowed to the position. The stretch between Weeks 13-16 isn’t all that bad either with a tremendously cushy home game against the Raiders in Week 13 who will be on their second straight road game. Seattle can be a tough environment to play in, but as far as fantasy points allowed to TEs, it could be easier than 14th as they gave up the fourth-most points to the position last season.
4. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are another team we have seen with tough schedules at both QB and WR with both ranking 31st. It’s a different story at TE for 93rd-percentile SPARQ freak Jonnu Smith will look for a full breakout season. The Titans TEs will get the tough stuff out of the way in a hurry with their two worst matchups of the season coming in Weeks 3 and 5. Surrounding those two difficult matchups, however, we see that all of their other five matchups before the halfway point of the season are all against teams who allow an above-average amount of points to the position. The back half of the season sees just three matchups against teams well-below average fantasy points allowed with the Bears in Week 9, Ravens in Week 11, and Packers in the fantasy championships in Week 16. This could be easier than advertised as both the Packers and Bears tied for 12th most points allowed to TEs last season after they both ranked 21st and 23rd, respectively, in 2018.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
Tight end has been somewhat of a barren landscape for Cincinnati in recent years with Tyler Eifert always offering intrigue but never really living up to his potential due to constant injuries and poor overall team play. Well, he is now gone, and early in the preseason process, we are looking at C.J. Uzomah being their potential TE1. This is only really noteworthy due to this friendly SOS, and really, top five for TE isn’t quite as friendly as some positions as it’s just one spot away from league average at 16th. The first half of the schedule isn’t all that great with their only premium matchups being bolstered by two games against the Browns. After their Week 9 bye, we see things lighten up a lot with five of their next seven matchups being against teams who rank top 10 in fantasy points allowed to TEs. The only downside of this is that they get three of their four games after their bye on the road. Otherwise, the back half is pretty friendly. With QB, RB, and WR for the Bengals all getting schedules that rank bottom eight, their TEs will get a top-five easiest schedule.
Top Five Toughest Strength of Schedule for TE: Full Season
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are all the rage this offseason with their big overhaul at offense welcoming Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Gronk will have his work cut out for him this season after both coming out of retirement and facing one of the tougher schedules at the position. This isn’t as brutal of a schedule though as we have seen at some of the bottom five schedules in the league. Instead of facing some really daunting matchups against the stingiest teams in the league, they really just get a lot of matchups that offer below-average potential but not really bottom-five potential. We see that with the Saints being their only reoccurring poor matchup this season, but they have even trended in a positive direction between the last two seasons going from 27th in 2018 to 22nd in 2019. At the TE position, we really don’t see a huge drop in PPG between the slightly above average range to the slightly below average range. Using the Bucs’ matchups as an example, their range of slightly above average matchups start around the Broncos rank of 11th and ends with the Packers at 22nd. The difference in average PPG between them between the last two seasons is just 1.15 points. So really, this schedule isn’t a complete nightmare.
29. Chicago Bears
The Bears have a mess at their depth chart for tight end heading into the season and whoever inherits the primary pass-catching role will also inherit one of the tougher schedules in the league for the position. There are still some shades of this being a bunch of slightly below average matchups as opposed to a slew of teams in the bottom five, but there aren’t really as many really excitable matchups here either. The Bucs schedule at least had a game against the Chiefs and Raiders who rank first and second in points allowed. The best the Bears get are the Texans who rank third, but that matchup won’t come until all the way in Week 14. Before that, these guys will only see two games against teams who are above average in points allowed in Weeks 4 and 5 against the Colts and Bucs. Those are both home games for the Bears as well so maybe there could be some streamer appeal. Otherwise, the position is a situation to avoid this season as far as Bears are concerned.
30. Seattle Seahawks
Despite the Seahawks having a tougher overall schedule than a team like the Bears above them, I would almost rather take this one. Unfortunately, much like the Bears as well, there aren’t really any players at the TE position here worth getting super excited about. What I do like better about this schedule though is that there is less grey area in it. As in, you get pretty clear start and sit matchups with four games against teams who rank top 10. The only problem with that is that two of them are against their division rival Cardinals who made that tremendous jump from ranking 29th in 2018 to first in 2019 in points allowed. Otherwise, you know you don’t want to start a TE here against Buffalo, Philly, or the Jets. Then getting two average matchups towards the end of the playoffs isn’t exactly a deathblow either if a player here has developed streaming potential by that point in the season.
31. Arizona Cardinals
Quick, without looking, name the top TE on the Cardinals heading into the 2020 season. See, you don’t know. I didn’t either. Here’s another pop quiz, do you know when the last time a tight end from the Cardinals finished the season as a TE1 (top 12)? Neither did I. You have to go all the way back to 2004 when Freddie Jones accomplished the feat with a horrid final stat line of 45/426/2, finishing as the overall TE11. Last fun fact, Freddie Jones also caught the first-ever TD pass from Drew Brees back in 2001 when they were both on the Chargers. Those are the kinds of juicy stats you get with a FantasyData sub. Anyways, why this is all-important is because, alongside the fact that the Cardinals have an awful schedule, they also haven’t had a tight end worth squat in ages.
32. Green Bay Packers
No, Pack, No! This team just can’t catch a break this season. I am hoping for a Jace Sternberger second-year breakout with Jimmy Graham finally gone but this dampens my spirits on that ever so slightly. It’s still not a nightmare schedule like we have seen at some of the other positions with plus matchups against the Bucs, Texans, Jags, and Colts through the heart of the season. The downside to those four matchups, however, is that three of them will be on the road. Getting Philly in Week 13 when you may have a make or break situation on your hands to get into the fantasy playoffs is less than ideal as well.
Best TE for a Fantasy Playoff Push: Weeks 13-16
1. Indianapolis Colts
This is as good as it gets right here, people. And we’re not just talking about this being the best playoff schedule at TE, it’s the best across any position in the league during this stretch. The only downside to this is you’re banking on success solely against the Texans for half of it and three of these four games are on the road. Otherwise, this is enough to make you want to draft Jack Doyle as your TE2 all day just to get this cake schedule come season’s end.
2. Miami Dolphins
We have seen at QB and RB the Dolphins have a great schedule through the fantasy playoffs and TE is no different. Apparently, the only position of theirs you want to avoid through this stretch is the WRs (sorry, DeVante Parker truthers). Three straight home games is a huge plus to this, especially given their success against the Pats in Miami in recent years. Then your only road game is against the Raiders who give up the most points to the position? Sign me up for some Mike Gesicki late-season hype.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
Here we are again with the Bengals. There will be a lot to determine before we get to this point in the season for this team as a whole let alone their tight end. But if we get some streamer-quality performances from them, this will definitely be something to remember once we get around Week 11 or 12 if your team is in a position to make a playoff run as you could potentially grab a TE off of waivers that can carry you through these most important weeks.
Worst TE for a Fantasy Playoff Push: Weeks 13-16
1. Cleveland Browns
The worst full season schedules may not have been super ugly for tight end but the playoff schedules are much worse. A lot of noise has been made about what to expect from Austin Hooper now that he is a member of the Browns. The full-season schedule actually isn’t bad at all for the Browns TE crew ranking 9th easiest and really until about Week 11 when they face the Eagles who rank 30th. So, perhaps we get a situation here where you could try and unload Hooper if you have had success with him through the season before your team’s trade deadline and let someone else deal with these ugly matchups.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
If you want to chase the dream of Tyler Eifert being a legitimate TE in fantasy, this is where you’ll have to look this season. Either that or if you’re banking on a breakout from Josh Oliver. Either way, you’re not going to want any of those guys by the time you get to this point in their schedule. Tennessee and Chicago offer a small chance of hope given that the Titans actually allowed the fifth-most points to TEs last season after ranking last in 2018. The Bears had a similar, yet, less drastic jump in the positive direction going from 23rd in 2018 to 12th last season. Either way, you probably wouldn’t be rolling a TE from the Jags out at this point either way.
3. Arizona Cardinals
Here we are with the Cardinals again. Unless 45-year-old Freddie Jones is going to come out of retirement to teach these kids in Arizona a thing or two about how tight ends roll, the SOS for Cardinals TEs probably won’t matter much anyway.
