Advanced Metrics: Using Hog Rate to Identify 7 Wide Receiver Values

In this article, I’ll use our Advanced Metrics to tell you about six wide receiver values who you should target in fantasy drafts. The focus of this article is on Hog Rate. It captures the rate of passing game utilization on a per play basis by calculating the number of targets per snap. This metric helps to identify wide receivers and tight ends with limited route trees that may have a low snap count and target share, but when they are on the field, are a focal point of the passing offense. 

DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles

DeSean Jackson returns home to Philadelphia to fill a void in the Eagles offense after spending the last two seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The team struggled to threaten defenses vertically. Did you know that the Eagles had the fourth-fewest receptions of 20 yards or more last season? Jackson had 13 receptions of 20 yards or more in only 12 games. He also averaged eight air yards per target in 2018 which ranked fifth among WRs. Jackson’s averaged 6.3 targets, 3.5 receptions, and 55.5 receiving yards per game over the last two seasons.

The 32-year old receiver still has some fuel left in the tank. Jackson is a steal at his current average draft position, but he is unlikely to finish as a WR1. It’s important to have the right expectations when drafting him this summer. We have Jackson projected to finish 2019 with 77 targets, 48 receptions, 803 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. There is a good chance for him to exceed this projection with quarterback Carson Wentz under center for the Eagles. Jackson is best viewed as a WR3 or Flex option with WR1 upside on certain weeks in PPR formats. 

Golden Tate, New York Giants

Golden Tate signed with the Giants after the astonishing trade of Odell Beckham to the Cleveland Browns. He was traded to the Eagles midway through last season. Philadelphia needed a deep threat, but Tate has worked primarily out of the slot his entire career. He finished with 278 receiving yards in eight games with the team. Tate is also suspended for the first four games of the regular season for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. There is an opportunity in the chaos that you can leverage with Tate in fantasy drafts. His ADP has dipped to the double-digit rounds and the target volume left behind by Beckham.

Tate has averaged 8.1 targets, 5.6 receptions, and 63.5 receiving yards per game since 2014. The thought of having a WR on your fantasy roster tethered to QB Eli Manning is not appealing. The target volume as the Giants slot receiver is. Tate is entering his age-31 season. Slot receivers have historically been able to fend off Father Time longer than their peers who line up on the outside. Tate can be viewed as a solid WR3 or Flex option in PPR formats given his proficiency for yards after the catch. 

Ryan Switzer, Pittsburgh Steelers

Ryan Switzer finished last season with 44 targets, 36 receptions, and 253 receiving yards. The Steelers target share was dominated by Antonio Brown (27%) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (24.5%) in 2018. Switzer played on a little over 27 percent of the offensive snaps with 70 percent of that time lined up in the slot.    

Watching Tom Brady and Julian Edelman pick apart the Rams in the Super Bowl, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger texted Ryan Switzer.

“Why can’t we do this?”https://t.co/mS4n02wKEQ

— Brian Batko (@BrianBatko) August 5, 2019

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and the 24-year-old receiver have developed a very good rapport. Switzer finished last season ranked 17th in True Catch Rate. A reception percentage-based solely on catchable targets. Switzer is having a strong training camp based on reports from NFL beat writers and other sources. 

Nice little stutter step here by Ryan Switzer to beat Bush on this drag. Real good stuff. pic.twitter.com/S7hZx5a0wz

— Nick Farabaugh (@FarabaughFB) August 1, 2019

It will be interesting to observe if Smith-Schuster will be used more as an outside receiver in 2019 due to the loss of Brown. Switzer is a great candidate to replace him in the slot.

Good quote from Steelers WR Ryan Switzer: There are 170 targets that have been vacated, and I don’t expect us to throw the ball less. pic.twitter.com/CtIWRXDHcR

— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) July 25, 2019

The Steelers led the NFL last season in pass attempts per game with 43. The team will continue to be pass-heavy considering they averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game since 2014. Switzer is someone to target at the end of your fantasy football draft especially in deeper formats.     

Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers

Injuries have derailed Curtis Samuel‘s NFL career up to this point. The 23-year old receiver is entering his third season and has only played in 21 career games. He was eased back into the fold in 2018, but Samuels finished last season ranked 14th in Fantasy Points Per Route Run (0.55). He entered training camp healthy for the first time in his career. Samuels has been championed as a breakout candidate all summer by numerous fantasy football analysts including Yahoo Sports’ Matt Harmon.

#ReceptionPerception pic.twitter.com/zu8jC1ZBQz

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) July 23, 2019

It will be interesting to see how Samuel’s ADP continues to fluctuate over the month of August. 

Samuel’s in a great situation to go boom with a healthy Cam Newton under center lining up opposite of D.J. Moore. Beat writers have been in awe of him thus far in training camp. Samuel is a nice value in the ninth rounds of drafts who could outperform his ADP. 

Adam Humphries, Tennessee Titans

Adam Humphries statistical production has increased each and every season he’s been in the NFL. He finished as a WR3 in 2018 with 104 targets, 76 receptions, and 816 receiving yards benefiting from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass-heavy offense. Humphries had a True Catch Rate of 84.4 percent which was impressive considering his target volume. This success resulted in him signing a four-year, $36 million contract with the Tennessee Titans during the offseason. It’s easy to feel melancholy about Humphries’ 2019 outlook taking into account the landing spot. The Titans averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game. The only NFL team that had a lower average was the Seattle Seahawks with 26.7. 

Marcus Mariota and Adam Humphries showed serious chemistry in preseason opener https://t.co/7Bygon9gzu

— Titan Sized (@Titan_Sized) August 9, 2019

Humphries will act as a safety valve for Titans QB Marcus Mariota in 2019. Many are quick to mention that he is competing for targets with WRs Corey Davis, rookie receiver A.J. Brown, and tight end Delanie Walker. Many bring up that the Titans offense will lean heavily on the running game with running backs, Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis. Humphries ability to create separation is underrated. Were you aware that he had the same target separation of 1.65 yards last season as Odell Beckham? This metric calculates a receiver’s average yards of separation distance from the closest defense back at the moment the pass target arrives. Humphries is someone you select in the double-digit rounds of your fantasy draft. The New England Patriots were prepared to offer him a four-year contract during free agency earlier this year for a reason. 

Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears

Anthony Miller‘s played in 15 games last season as a rookie finishing with 33 receptions, 423 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns. A shoulder injury impeded his production for most of the season. The Bears are expected to throw the football more in 2019 after averaging 32.6 pass attempts per game in 2018. This ranked 26th in the NFL. Miller is entering training camp healthy and has had a full NFL offseason to continue to hone his craft. 

Bears wide receivers coach Mike Furrey can see the mental growth in second-year players Anthony Miller and Javon Wims.

“I don’t have to sit there and be on pins and needles now.”

4 things we heard from Bears assistants Monday: https://t.co/VSqicki6p8 pic.twitter.com/7EUSlx7ww6

— Chicago Sports (@ChicagoSports) August 6, 2019

Miller (11) finished last season with one fewer red-zone target than teammate Allen Robinson (12). It’s not out of the realm of possibilities that he finishes the 2019 season as the most fantasy-relevant Bears WR. 

Miller’s ADP is far too low to not gamble on him in the 11th round.

Rashard Higgins, Cleveland Browns

Rashard Higgins set career highs in targets (53), receptions (39), receiving yards (572), and touchdowns (4) in 2018. His Hog Rate and target share are minuscule when compared to new teammates Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. Higgins made the most of his target opportunities. The 24-year old receiver finished last season with a True Catch Rate of 93 percent. The Browns offense is one to target in fantasy after their dramatic turnaround in 2018 after Week 9 once Freddie Kitchens took over as the offensive coordinator. During the second half of last season, the team finished fourth in total yards per game (395.1) and tied for fourth in passing touchdowns (19). The team is loaded with offensive playmakers to support second-year QB Baker Mayfield, but one question remains. Can he support two top-24 fantasy receivers? Mayfield has the skill and moxie to do so. Between Beckham and Landry, there won’t be many targets for anyone else.

Added Rashard Higgins as a deep sleeper. If he can maintain his 2018 per target production (w/Mayfield) on 60 or so targets as the Browns’ WR3, he’s looking at fantasy WR4 numbers. 5-98-1 (6) last night, playing ahead of Callaway.https://t.co/9M2mcnNfUe

— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) August 9, 2019

We have Higgins projected for 62 targets, 36 receptions, 510 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. He has a chance to exceed this projection if his efficiency continues. Higgins is someone to target in deeper formats and has the potential to be a league winner if Beckham or Landry misses time.  

Conclusion

Hog Rate and the other Advanced Metrics we offer subscribers are useful at identifying breakout players. All seven of these WRs have very reasonable ADPs. How will you incorporate what you learned in your fantasy football draft strategy? It’s a good best practice to use FantasyData’s ADP information, rankings, projections, and other resources to plan the details of your draft. As Sun-Tzu said in The Art of War:

He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared.