Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy
The 2023 NFL Draft brought plenty of surprises, but former Georgia Tech and Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs being selected 12th overall to the Detroit Lions might have been the biggest shock of the event. The value of the running back position has been debated to great lengths in the modern era of the NFL, but when a team invests highly-valuable draft capital on a ball carrier, expectations in “real life” and fantasy football go through the roof.
D’Andre Swift was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles just two days after Gibbs was selected, meaning he’ll step in right away as the lead receiving back in one of last season’s best offenses. Gibbs is set to share a backfield with David Montgomery, but he should have the opportunity to seize a significant role suited for fantasy production.
Gibbs’ landing spot and draft capital check the boxes for a high-level fantasy running back but let’s dive deeper into his prospect profile.
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Jahmyr Gibbs Collegiate Career Review
In two seasons in the Georgia Tech mediocre offense, Gibbs flashed elite receiving upside. During his age 18 and 19 seasons, he compiled 60 total receptions for 773 yards and three touchdowns. His efficiency on the ground wasn’t too shabby either, posting 1,206 yards on 232 carries (5.2 YPC). He produced impressive numbers despite the Yellow Jackets ranking no greater than 72nd nationally in total offense and 95th nationally in offensive points per game.
JAHMYR GIBBS TO THE 🏠@GeorgiaTechFB pic.twitter.com/Z7PrRVT20E
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) November 6, 2021
After the former four-star Georgia native spent two seasons with his local team, he entered the transfer portal and landed at Alabama.
In his lone season with the Crimson Tide, Gibbs immediately earned the RB1 job in Bryce Young’s offense — and he delivered. Gibbs rushed 151 times for 926 yards (6.1 YPC) and caught 44 passes for 444 yards in 2022. He continued to look like one of the best players on the field, even in the loaded SEC, and cemented himself as a top running back prospect in the 2023 class.
NFL Skill-Set
Gibbs has all the skills necessary to succeed in the NFL, with his only question mark being his 199-pound frame. His size suggests he’ll never be a true bell cow running back for an offense, but the majority of NFL offenses no longer utilize one running back who dominates to touch share — so that shouldn’t be too big of a concern.
Modern offenses are targeting the running back heavily, which is exactly what Gibbs does best. Almost every running back can catch passes out of the backfield, but only a select few are slick receivers who can run real routes rather than simple check-down patterns. Gibbs should be one of the best-receiving backs in the league from day one, which is clearly attractive in PPR fantasy formats.
He showcased elite speed at the 2023 NFL Combine, running a 4.36 40-yard dash, 2.52 20-yard split, and 1.51 10-yard split. Given the average modern workload for NFL running backs, targeting a high-level receiver with big-time speed who can maximize his touches is key to fantasy football success. Gibbs has all the makings to be that guy.
Jahmyr Gibbs rockin’ the Steph Curry ‘night-night’ celebration after scoring a touchdown and extending Alabama’s lead to 22 points 😴pic.twitter.com/YjWJZqNbN1
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPointsApp) October 1, 2022
Fantasy Impact for 2023
Gibbs’ current ADP in PPR leagues sits at the RB15 spot, so fantasy football gamers clearly expect him to make a significant impact as a rookie. With Jared Goff at quarterback, he should see plenty of targets out of the backfield. Swift saw at least a 15.1% target share in each of his last two seasons with the Lions, and Gibbs is a similar player who will take that role in 2023.
Especially while Jameson Williams is out during his six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s gambling policy, there will be plenty of targets up for grabs in the high-powered Lions’ offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the clear target hog for Detroit, but Marvin Jones Jr., Josh Reynolds, and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be Gibbs’ only competition for targets early on in the season. Swift saw at least five targets in 17 of his 27 games over the last two seasons — and many of those games were with T.J. Hockenson in the fold.
A 70-plus target season is well within Gibbs’ range of outcomes in 2023, so the lack of between-the-tackles and goal line rushes shouldn’t be of huge concern. Sure, his limited workload could cap his upside, but as long as he’s an efficient pass-catcher with volume, he could post an RB1 season. If he stays healthy and plays at least 14 games, an RB24 finish should be his fantasy floor. Getting too excited about rookies in redraft formats is often a mistake, but his RB15 price tag is fair value. That said, he could get priced up even more and become too expensive for his reasonable expectations.
