RB MarShawn Lloyd Fantasy Impact
The Packers selected USC RB MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft, 88th overall. Even though the Packers added former Raiders running back Josh Jacobs this offseason there was a need for an upgrade behind him with the plodding AJ Dillon as his primary backup. The opinions on Lloyd run the gamut from some analysts thinking he could end up being the best running back in the 2024 draft class to others saying he will never be more than a middling backup to an established starter. The gap between the differing views on Lloyd makes sense when you consider his collegiate career was a bit of a mixed bag. Lloyd profiles as a pretty clear boom-or-bust candidate based on what we’ve seen from him thus far. The question is will he be more boom or bust? One thing in Lloyd’s favor is that he is entering a situation where he should get some quality playing time and will be working with a coach in Matt LaFleur who has a knack for getting the most out of his young players. But just how high is Lloyd’s ceiling and how low is his floor? Let’s discuss.
Fantasy Value
First and foremost, we can’t ignore the fact that Jacobs will be the starter for the Packers and will be given every opportunity to be the bell-cow running back of this offense. This would leave very little left for Lloyd even if he does secure the backup role. The best path to fantasy relevance in 2024 for Lloyd is if Jacobs gets injured or is highly inefficient. Still, the four-year, $48 million deal that Jacobs signed this offseason will secure him a bit of leeway when it comes to his production, but a lack of production could open the door for Lloyd to get more work. If Lloyd earns 40%-45% of the carries he could be valuable as a low-end RB2 or flex play in redraft, but if that were to happen it is unlikely to happen until mid-season at the earliest. This means he’d spend half of the fantasy season just taking up space on your bench or filling in for bye weeks. Lloyd isn’t without talent. He does have some explosiveness and many of the tools required to be successful at the next level, but he is very much a work-in-progress who will take time to develop into a weekly fantasy contributor if he ever does. For now, he’s a decent late-round stash (round 12 or later) as a low-end flex or bye-week fill-in, in the hopes that he will become more later in the season.
Dynasty Value
With the acquisition of Josh Jacobs on a four-year deal, Lloyd’s dynasty value may appear tenuous at best. But there’s no guarantee that Jacobs will succeed on the Packers. Last season, Jacobs was top-12 in carries but barely cracked the top-25 in yardage, averaging an inefficient 3.5 yards per carry. This could allow Lloyd to take advantage and, in time, become the ball carrier of the future. However, for that to even have a chance of happening, Lloyd has to fix one major aspect of his game…his tendency to fumble. Tendency might not be a strong enough word. Lloyd spent time at South Carolina before transferring to USC and at both schools his fumbling was out-of-control. During his career, he put the ball on the ground 11 times on just 291 touches from scrimmage. If that doesn’t improve at the NFL level then the simple fact is that he will not get on the field. Working in Lloyd’s favor is that if he can improve his ball control then he could end up being a steal, both for the Packers and in dynasty rookie-only drafts. Lloyd’s combination of explosiveness, speed, and low center of gravity makes him incredibly difficult to tackle and allows him to excel at yards after contact. If Jacobs has a resurgence in Green Bay, then he could hold off Lloyd for some time, but the Packers have a history of investing in young players and developing them so that they can realize their upside, even if years down the road. This is why I see Lloyd as a valuable fantasy asset as a nice mid-to-late second-round pick.
Conclusion
There is a wide range of outcomes when it comes to Lloyd the fantasy asset. On one end of the spectrum, he eventually becomes the lead runner in this backfield and develops into a consistent RB2 with some upside. That’s probably his ceiling. On the other hand, he continues to have fumbling issues and hardly ever sees the field, which makes him one of the bigger busts in the 2024 NFL Draft. The most likely outcome is that he settles somewhere between those two extremes and is a nice, if not exceptional, flex-worthy running back with RB2 upside. Lloyd can be dynamic at the next level but I’m a bit hesitant about the landing spot as well as some of the concerning traits I witnessed from him as a college player. In redraft, add him to your bench in the later rounds when there is very little risk if someone doesn’t work out. In dynasty rookie drafts, you should be targeting him starting the middle of the second round in 1QB formats and the beginning of the third round in 2QB/Superflex leagues.
