Los Angeles Chargers (3-4) vs. New York Jets (4-3)
- Spread: Chargers -3.5
- Over/Under: 39.5
Breakdown
The Los Angeles Chargers are looking to get to a .500 record with a win in this week 9 matchup with the Jets. The Chargers are favored on the road and a huge part of that is the quarterback play. Justin Herbert has been great to start this season, passing for 1,890 yards, 13 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions. Herbert has some of the best arm talent in the league and he will need to be on his game against a very stout Jets defense. His backfield mate, Austin Ekeler, has had an interesting start to the season. Ekeler missed weeks 2-5 with an ankle injury but is back and should be close to full health by this point. He has struggled to really get the run game going, only rushing for 101 yards in the last three games combined. What makes Ekeler so dangerous though is his pass-catching ability out of the backfield. In week 8 against the Bears, he had 7 receptions for 94 yards. The dual-threat back is vital for the long-term success of this Chargers offense. Veteran pass catcher Keenan Allen has gotten off to an electric start, bringing in 54 receptions for 643 yards and 4 touchdowns. Allen is easily the top target in this offense and should continue to see plenty of work, even against one of the best defenses at shutting down wide receivers. With Joshua Palmer going on the IR, rookie receiver Quentin Johnson is going to be thrust into a more prominent role in the offense.
The Jets have won 3 straight games but have their hands full with this Monday Night Football matchup. The Jets defense has been phenomenal this season, holding teams to less than 20 points in 4 of 7 games. The struggles have come from the offense. Aaron Rodgers was supposed to lead this team but he tore his Achilles just minutes into the first game of the season. Zach Wilson has stepped in and has shown flashes of good play but has been very inconsistent. Wilson has only thrown for over 200 yards in 2 games so far this season. Wilson has tossed 5 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions this season. He needs to do a better job at protecting the ball, luckily for him, the Chargers pass defense has not been good this season. Breece Hall is continuing to improve and get more involved in the offense. He is another halfback who is a good runner, but also great at catching passes out of the backfield. Getting him involved in all facets of the game will be very important for the Jets offense, and will make the job easier on Zach Wilson. Garrett Wilson is proving to be Zach Wilson’s number-one target, and he has continued to improve on what was a great rookie campaign last season. Garrett Wilson has seen double-digit targets in three of the last four games and finally got to the 100-yard receiving mark last season. Against a Chargers secondary that has struggled to cover receivers, look for Wilson to be heavily involved once again.
Keys to Victory
Los Angeles Chargers: Running the ball effectively. The Jets secondary has been great against wide receivers but not as effective at stopping the run. Getting Ekeler and Joshua Kelley going in the run game will be vital for the success of the offense. The Jets defense ranks second in passing yards given up and is middle of the pack in rush yards against. If the Jets can contain Herbert, easier said than done, the running backs will be the ones who need to move the chains consistently.
New York Jets: Protect the ball. Zach Wilson has thrown 5 interceptions and lost three fumbles this season. Giving Herbert and the Chargers offense extra possessions is an easy recipe for playing from behind and having to force the offense. Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook need to help their quarterback in the check-down game so the Jets don’t have to force the ball down the field into dangerous situations.
Prop Bet Pick
Justin Herbert Over 8.5 Rush Yards -113
The Jets secondary could lead to some blanketed coverage and make Herbert scramble from the pocket. Herbert has hit this line in 4 of his 7 games this season. With the inefficiencies the Chargers running backs have had this season, Herbert could look to use his legs and move the chains himself.
DFS Picks
Chargers Offense: Gerald Everett. With Joshua Palmer on IR and a rookie moving into the second wide receiver option, veteran tight end Gerald Everett could be in for an increase in targets. The Jets also do not defend the tight end well. Everett has found the endzone twice this season and should be one of Herbert’s go-to underneath options all game.
Jets Offense: Tyler Conklin. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are the obvious picks but both of them are much more expensive. Allen Lazard is also questionable with a knee injury. Conklin has seen 4 or more targets in 5 of 7 games this season and the Chargers have struggled the tight end position all season. His cost is also very cheap for someone seeing a bulk of the targets going to the tight end position. Not a flashy pick but the Jets offense has its star players and then some more under the radar guys.
