NFL DFS Picks: Week 4
One of the underrated benefits of football season, at least for me, is the routine it adds to my schedule. During the summer, days of the week can come and go without much care for their sequencing. Once this time of year hits, though? Sundays are entirely blocked off, perhaps a chunk too of Saturday for either college games or building lineups, and Monday/Thursday evenings earn an earmarked section in my calendar. Sure, it makes things busy (my research throughout the hours when the sun is out parlays with writing articles and editing podcasts only after midnight strikes), but it’s a lifestyle that I embrace with passion.
Weekly routine becomes the anchor for NFL teams and players as well—most of the time. Yet the privileges that familiarity provides can manifest as discomfort when taken away; you’ve no doubt heard the struggles of a team trying to cram in preparation on a short week of rest or attempting to travel across the country for an early start, not to mention the games overseas. This year, the disruption could be even more severe: the Titans and Vikings have each temporarily closed their facilities following positive coronavirus tests from members of Tennessee.
What does the work week in the football world look like when you can’t go onto your main practice field, or see the trainers for rehab? Are all 13 games on the main slate going to be played as scheduled? I don’t have the answers, but I did make a call for the value of flexibility last week, and it’s certainly worth keeping in mind right now. All we can do, as is the case with these teams, is prepare to the best of our ability given the available resources—so let’s do exactly that. While the landscape may change, here’s the Week 4 dive into my NFL DFS picks for this Sunday’s slate.
Update: The Steelers-Titans game has been postponed and is no longer part of the main slate. Make sure you adjust your lineups.
As a reminder, I’ve created and will be hosting a new DFS podcast, Slate Breakers, with fellow FantasyData expert Chris Mitchell throughout the season. Episodes will be embedded in these preview articles upon release later in the week, but you can also follow me on Twitter for immediate notification when a show drops.
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson ($6600) and Cam Newton ($6400) are good options in the subsequent tier (the total in Minnesota-Houston has risen from 51.5 to 54.5 since opening), and while he didn’t do as much as we would’ve liked last week, Matthew Stafford ($5900) does have his full set of weapons finally healthy for a date with the Saints that sports shootout potential. Then, if you’re chasing friendly matchups, cheap guys in good spots would be Baker Mayfield ($5800) and Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5400).
Favorite Plays: Russell Wilson ($7800), Cam Newton ($6400), Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5400)
Running Back
Okay, so you know how Christian McCaffrey sits at around $10000 when he’s healthy, and it’s always a tough call deciding whether or not to pay up for him? Well, take your savings and spend them where needed on what’s a tighter slate this week, because Alvin Kamara ($8000) and Ezekiel Elliott ($7800) should not be considered 20% less valuable than those typical McCaffrey days. Kamara’s upside is somewhat contingent on Michael Thomas’ availability, so keep an eye on that, but his receiving stat line of 13-139-2 (on negative air yards, by the way) makes him an elite WR1 who also gets carries. Zeke, on the other hand, checks just about every box you’d want from a fantasy RB in a single week (favored, home, game script independent, high-octane offense—I could go on). You should be hammering both of these two, and I’ll be working to fit both into my lineup for cash games.
Beyond the other obvious options, I’d consider Austin Ekeler ($7100) or Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6400) for leverage in providing you an upside option that’s reasonably priced. He won’t be hidden at all, but Kenyan Drake ($6000) makes a lot of sense against Carolina, and if Zack Moss misses another game, Devin Singletary ($5900) figures to offer a decent floor. I’d pivot off them with Joe Mixon ($5800), because I’m not sure who in their right mind wants to play Joe Mixon right now, or the current leader of the backfield on the team that ranks #1 in early-down rush percentage: Darrell Henderson ($5800).
There’s little competition for touches with David Montgomery ($5500), albeit this not being an ideal face-off with the Colts. Carlos Hyde ($5300) may get the start for Seattle, and you could make a bet on Devonta Freeman ($4800) getting more work after spending a full week with the team. Antonio Gibson ($4500) and Chris Thompson ($4100) can get there with receiving work, I suppose. With options up top I’m so fond of, however, these are more names than anything I’m seriously pursuing—at least at this point in the week.
Favorite Plays: Alvin Kamara ($8000), Ezekiel Elliott ($7800), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6400), Kenyan Drake ($6000), Darrell Henderson ($5800)
Wide Receiver
There will never be a time you can’t put together a Seahawks stack, with Tyler Lockett ($7000)/D.K. Metcalf ($6800) also viable individually, and one of these days, Tyreek Hill ($6900) will shatter the leaderboard—his price has dropped $600 since he was most recently on the main slate. I like everyone at $6700 (Allen Robinson/Amari Cooper/Cooper Kupp)—those three all had double-digit targets last week. Under the 6K threshold, with each having come down in price, we have great value looks; I’m writing all four of these players up since I’m interested, of course, but I’ll rank them loosely in the following order: Odell Beckham Jr. ($5800) > D.J. Moore ($5600) > Davante Parker ($5700) > Will Fuller ($5900).
It’s worth keeping an eye on the status of John Brown to see if Cole Beasley ($4700)/Gabriel Davis ($3200) make sense, Tee Higgins ($4500) led the Bengals in air yards in Week 3, and N’Keal Harry ($4000) is actually a better start this week than last given New England may have to chase—I wound up moving off Patriots WRs in DFS once the injuries for Las Vegas suggested it might be a game that slowed down in the 2nd half. There likely aren’t huge ceilings for these guys, but Zach Pascal ($4400) is one of the only wideouts still standing for Indy, and Cordarrelle Patterson ($3700) ought to see some extra usage in Chicago.
Favorite Plays: Tyreek Hill ($6900), D.K. Metcalf ($6800), Odell Beckham Jr. ($5800), D.J. Moore ($5600), N’Keal Harry ($4000)
Tight End
I’m content to sprinkle in but won’t be forcing Travis Kelce ($6800); I do like lower ownership (presumably, given his quiet production since Week 1) for Mark Andrews ($6000), and I won’t be touching Tyler Higbee ($5700) even if I love the Rams passing attack in this spot given he’s running routes on just 40% of dropbacks. That’s just the top three, though, and paying down continues to be my most common tendency.
You should buy low on Darren Waller ($5200), who simply got schemed out for a game; T.J. Hockenson ($4800), who lost a touchdown to his fellow TE Jesse James; and Evan Engram ($4400), who is simply far too talented to keep seeing so little production. The usage for Eric Ebron ($4200) was encouraging. And I guess I’m just not factoring the performance of his QB enough to prevent continued interest in Logan Thomas ($3500). Some day, right?
Favorite Plays: Mark Andrews ($6000), Darren Waller ($5200), Evan Engram ($4400), Logan Thomas ($3500)
