Movement around the NFL creates new opportunities for Fantasy Football. Every addition or loss to a team has an impact. Especially when a player like Mark Ingram, who has been a focal point in the Saints’ backfield for eight seasons, needs to be replaced. After deciding to move on from Mark Ingram this past offseason, the veteran signed with the Baltimore Ravens. His departure leaves almost 160 touches to be had in the Saints backfield. Enter the “Tay Train”, Latavius Murray. The former Raiders and Vikings running back signed a four-year deal worth over $14 million. The acquisition of Murray spells out that the Saints plan to use him as a change of pace back to Kamara. Murray should find himself in a similar role to what we saw with Mark Ingram over the last two years.
Touches For The Taking
As of late, no Fantasy Football RB tandem has been more dominant than Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram of the New Orleans Saints. Over the past two years, this duo has combined for over 1,000 fantasy points. They had an outstanding 2017 season almost surpassing 600 fantasy points on a total of 439 touches. Both Kamara and Ingram averaged over 17 fantasy points per game. Ingram actually led the team in snaps this season at almost 55%. This left Kamara with 45% of the snaps, in which he was ultra-efficient. He racked up over 50 fantasy points per 100 snaps, which led the league by a longshot.
However, Ingram did take a step back in 2018, averaging just 11.9. Though the production was not all there, Ingram still saw a large chunk of the offensive snaps. Following his return from suspension, Ingram saw 43% of the running back snaps in New Orleans (Weeks 5-17). The other 56% went to Alvin Kamara and the two completely dominated the offensive snaps at the running back position. The Saints eased Ingram into the offense following his suspension as he was out-touched 50-87 in Weeks 5-10. However, Ingram was involved much more in the second half of the year. From Weeks 11-16, Kamara only out-touched Ingram by 19.
Ingram vs Murray: How Do They Compare?
Mark Ingram
| Year | Tm | G | Rush | Yds | TD | Y/A | Y/G | A/G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Ctch% | Touch | Y/Tch |
| 2011 | NOR | 10 | 122 | 474 | 5 | 3.9 | 47.4 | 12.2 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 0 | 84.6% | 133 | 3.9 |
| 2012 | NOR | 16 | 156 | 602 | 5 | 3.9 | 37.6 | 9.8 | 10 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 60.0% | 162 | 3.9 |
| 2013 | NOR | 11 | 78 | 386 | 1 | 4.9 | 35.1 | 7.1 | 11 | 7 | 68 | 0 | 63.6% | 85 | 5.3 |
| 2014 | NOR | 13 | 226 | 964 | 9 | 4.3 | 74.2 | 17.4 | 36 | 29 | 145 | 0 | 80.6% | 255 | 4.3 |
| 2015 | NOR | 12 | 166 | 769 | 6 | 4.6 | 64.1 | 13.8 | 60 | 50 | 405 | 0 | 83.3% | 216 | 5.4 |
| 2016 | NOR | 16 | 205 | 1043 | 6 | 5.1 | 65.2 | 12.8 | 58 | 46 | 319 | 4 | 79.3% | 251 | 5.4 |
| 2017 | NOR | 16 | 230 | 1124 | 12 | 4.9 | 70.3 | 14.4 | 71 | 58 | 416 | 0 | 81.7% | 288 | 5.3 |
| 2018 | NOR | 12 | 138 | 645 | 6 | 4.7 | 53.8 | 11.5 | 27 | 21 | 170 | 1 | 77.8% | 159 | 5.1 |
| Total | 106 | 1321 | 6007 | 50 | 4.5 | 56 | 12.4 | 286 | 228 | 1598 | 5 | 76.4% | 1549 | 4.8 | |
Latavius Murray
| Year | Tm | G | Rush | Yds | TD | Y/A | Y/G | A/G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Ctch% | Touch | Y/Tch |
| 2014 | OAK | 15 | 82 | 424 | 2 | 5.2 | 28.3 | 5.5 | 23 | 17 | 143 | 0 | 73.9% | 99 | 5.7 |
| 2015 | OAK | 16 | 266 | 1066 | 6 | 4 | 66.6 | 16.6 | 53 | 41 | 232 | 0 | 77.4% | 307 | 4.2 |
| 2016 | OAK | 14 | 195 | 788 | 12 | 4 | 56.3 | 13.9 | 43 | 33 | 264 | 0 | 76.7% | 228 | 4.6 |
| 2017 | MIN | 16 | 216 | 842 | 8 | 3.9 | 52.6 | 13.5 | 17 | 15 | 103 | 0 | 88.2% | 231 | 4.1 |
| 2018 | MIN | 16 | 140 | 578 | 6 | 4.1 | 36.1 | 8.8 | 26 | 22 | 141 | 0 | 84.6% | 162 | 4.4 |
| Total | 77 | 899 | 3698 | 34 | 4.2 | 48 | 11.7 | 162 | 128 | 883 | 0 | 80.2% | 1027 | 4.6 | |
Murray and Ingram are actually not as different as you might think. Throughout their careers, the two running backs both have a 79% catch rate. Ingram has a higher volume of receptions, but he’s also had more opportunities. They will also will be starting the 2019 season at the age of 29.
The argument can be made that Murray has never been put in the most ideal situations. Ingram, on the other hand, has thrived in the high-flying Saints’ offense. In the eight seasons in which Ingram has been in the league, Drew Brees has averaged 176 targets to the running back position. Latavius Murray’s offenses over the past five years have only surpassed 130 running back targets once. Comparing that alone, shows that Murray is in the best situation thus far in his career. Even though the Saints’ passing numbers were down a season ago.
In his five years in the NFL, Latavius Murray has only been on a winning team one time (MIN 2017). He solidified a role in Oakland at the end of his rookie year which led him to a workhorse role in his final two seasons with the Raiders. Over the course of these two years, he combined for an average of 267.5 touches per season. He averaged four yards per carry as the full-time starter while scoring 18 touchdowns over that span. Murray actually managed to haul in 41 receptions in 2015 with a 77% catch rate. This was the same season in which he exceeded 1,000 yards rushing. In Minnesota, Murray was always caught in a timeshare. Whether it was Dalvin Cook or Jerrick McKinnon, Murray was never truly the bellcow. During his two-year tenure as a Viking, Murray scored 14 touchdowns. He was relied upon as the goalline and short-yardage back.
Mark Ingram’s ADP last season, with a four-game suspension, was 47.2. This ADP put him at the end of the fourth round as the RB23 (in a 12-team league). Fast forward to 2019, wherein a similar role, Latavius Murray is RB34 with an ADP of 80.3. That’s right, a 16 game season from Latavius Murray is being drafted a full three rounds later than the 12 game Mark Ingram we saw last year. Make any sense to you? Because it shouldn’t. Murray’s ADP should only go up from here, so if you have any early drafts, jump on him at this price. If anything were to happen to Kamara, Murray would find himself well into the discussion of being a high-end Fantasy Football RB1.
2019 Fantasy Outlook
In FantasyData’s player projections Alvin Kamara is slated to get a majority of the work, as expected. These projections are actually identical to the touch distribution we saw last year between Kamara and Ingram. If we narrow this down to Kamara and Murray doing the heavy lifting, it comes out to Kamara getting 63% of the touches, and Murray left with the last 37%. The reception number (17) for Murray does seem a bit low, as he has averaged 25.6 catches per year since entering the league. Regardless of how this backfield shapes out, expect Murray to contribute from the start. We have yet to see the Saint put the whole workload on Kamara. We could see Kamara’s touchdown rate take a hit. He scored 9 TDs inside the five-yard line on 22 attempts last year. Since FantasyData has kept track of this stat in the past two years, both Kamara and Murray have had success punching the ball in. In these two years, Kamara is 11/27 (41%), and Murray is 8/17 (47%) on attempts inside the five.
This is a timeshare in which we should buy into. The presence of Latavius Murray should not scare you off of Alvin Kamara. This is one timeshare in which we should feel confident in and both backs have the potential to finish inside the top-25. The Saints have shown over the years that they do not use a bellcow in their scheme.
Conclusion
Latavius Murray will continue to be undervalued all the way up until the beginning of the season. With recency bias in full effect, people can easily lose sight of the situation at hand. In terms of the projections, I do agree with a majority of it. We broke down the target share with Saints’ running backs, and Murray’s history to believe this is a better situation. He should have a floor of 20-25 receptions in 2019 with the Saints. While the Fantasy Football world sleeps on Murray, jump in and get your shares.
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