Quick Recap
After the 2021 NFL Draft, I found Terrace Marshall Jr. and the Panthers Offense intriguing in the fantasy football stock report. Coming out of high school, Rivals.com listed Marshall as a five-star recruit as the No. 27 overall College Prospect. The Panthers drafted Marshall in the second round at pick No. 59 out of Louisiana State University (LSU). He was drafted after D’Wwayne Eskridge and Tutu Atwell, both of which I would rank behind Marshall amongst rookie wide receivers for fantasy purposes.
Even though Marshall’s college production may look mediocre, keep in mind that he opted out for the remainder of the 2020 season in late November. He finished 2020 with 48 receptions on 70 targets with 731 receiving yards and ten receiving touchdowns. Marshall earned an 18.6% college target share (45th-percentile), 33.4% College Dominator (63rd-percentile), and 19.2 Breakout Age (84th-percentile). Also, keep in mind, Marshall had foot surgery in the 2019 season while also dealing with injuries in high school. The injuries possibly led to NFL teams shying away from Marshall in the draft. We’re reminded of how silly and filthy the LSU offense looked in 2019 as Marshall played with Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson.
Skillset
At 6-foot-2 and 205-pounds, Terrace Marshall Jr. ran a 4.45 40-yard dash at his Pro Day which translates to a 106.0 Speed Score (85th-percentile), which takes into account size-adjusted speed. Meanwhile, Marshall ranked in the 85th-percentile with a 128.8 Burst Score, which puts him near the elite group in explosiveness. Notable receivers with a similar Burst Score include Anthony Miller, Tre’Quan Smith, and Davante Adams.
Terrace Marshall Jr.: 59.5 career contested catch %
Best in the 2021 NFL Draft🐯💪 pic.twitter.com/Wa6y9GUnDl
— PFF (@PFF) April 22, 2021
Overall, Marshall has solid size, speed, and explosiveness. Marshall played all over the field and also showed the ability to score, make contested catches (per PFF), and demand attention in the LSU offense, particularly in 2020. For college prospects, I rely on people like Matt Waldman and his Rookie Scouting Profile. He scored 23 receiving touchdowns in 19 games across 2019 and 2020. He boasted a high market share of the team’s receiving yards in four out of the seven games played last season. The main questions surround injury history, his fit in the Panthers’ offense, and can Sam Darnold support multiple fantasy viable pieces in this offense. One aspect we’ll note later involves Marshall’s connection to Panther’s offensive coordinator Joe Brady with their relationship at LSU.
Landing Spot
In 2020, the Panthers averaged 36.7 Team Pass Plays Per Game (No. 21), a 2.11 Pace of Play (No. 28), and -1.84 Game Script (No. 19). That means their team passing opportunities finished in the bottom half of the league last year even though they played with a negative game script. Their slow Pace of Play is particularly worrisome, but maybe that ticks up with Christian McCaffrey fully healthy.
It’s also worth noting that in 2019 with Ron Rivera, Norv Turner, and Scott Turner as the Panthers’ coaches, they averaged 43.4 Team Pass Plays Per Game (No. 2) with a high 2.42 Pace of Play (No. 1). However, the Panthers also had a -6.38 Game Script (No. 29) in 2019, meaning they played from behind more often than in 2020. If the lower passing volume and opportunity remain similar in 2021, the Panthers’ offense will need to rely on efficiency as they distribute targets to D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Christian McCaffrey. However, maybe in the second year of Matt Rhule and Joe Brady’s offense, we see a change in passing opportunity.
In theory, Terrace Marshall Jr. should win the job as their third wide receiver. However, with David Moore now on the Panthers, Moore displayed efficient production with a +14.0 Production Premium (No. 18) and 2.53 Fantasy Points Per Target (No. 1) in 2020. Often efficient quarterbacks pair with efficient pass catchers, and Russell Wilson is one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the NFL evidenced by a +20.8 Production Premium (No. 3) and 7.3 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (No. 12).
How has Sam Darnold fared in the efficiency department? Not great. Darnold had a 4.7 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (No. 35) in 2020 and a 5.9 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (No. 28) in 2019. Although, I’m tempted to give Darnold a pass with Adam Gase as the Jets Head Coach. Regardless, in year one, Marshall likely won’t overtake Anderson or Moore for the top wide receiver target options.
Fantasy Impact
Based on Underdog Best Ball ADP, Terrace Marshall Jr. goes at pick 152.3, which puts him as a 12th round pick in 12-team leagues. A 12th round pick is essentially a bench player assuming a lineup with two running backs, three wide receivers, and one flex spot. From a real-life perspective, I’m quite intrigued with Marshall in this offense with their receiving weapons including Christian McCaffrey back healthy.
In terms of early redraft value, consider drafting and stashing Marshall as he could produce similarly to Brandon Aiyuk as a rookie. Last season, Aiyuk caught 60 of 96 targets for 748 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Overall, I think 600-700 receiving yards for Marshall is within the realm of outcomes. Where we find Marshall’s situation extra interesting involves his dynasty value which we’ll discuss next.
Dynasty Impact
The Panthers signed Robby Anderson through 2021, then in 2022, he’s an unrestricted free agent. Meanwhile, D.J. Moore is signed through 2022 with an $11-million cap hit. That said, we love Moore from a dynasty perspective given his talent and age. However, Terrace Marshall Jr. should take over the WR2 role for the Panthers as early as 2022 with the potential for his first 1000-yard season. Sure, that might be a bit lofty, but I like Marshall’s profile assuming health and opportunity in the Panthers’ offense similar to how Robby Anderson produced last season.
Before 2020, Robby Anderson was somewhat of an afterthought in dynasty leagues outside of a deep ball, big-play receiver. Panthers’ head coach Matt Rhule had a relationship with Anderson back in their days at Temple University, which leads us to consider the coaching connection with Marshall and Joe Brady. With that added level of comfort and familiarity, maybe that helps Marshall with learning the offense and system in place. Overall, Marshall should rank in the WR30 – WR40 range amongst wide receivers in dynasty leagues. Maybe, I’m giving too much credit to LSU wide receivers, but I like Marshall’s size, athleticism, and production when healthy in college.
Quick Links
