Chicago Bears Dilemma
This offseason, the Chicago Bears are going to have some hard thinking to do. The Bears currently hold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft. A pick they obtained in one of the best trades of the 2023 offseason. They also have their pick (the No. 9 pick.) This means the Bears enter this offseason holding two top-10 picks, putting them in a position they have rarely been before. Regardless of the direction they take, they will have the opportunity to stack their roster with talent in all facets. However, the question on everyone’s mind is “What should/will the Bears do about Justin Fields?” Opinions on this seem to be pretty evenly divided (although the tide does seem to be swinging a bit toward the Keep Justin Fields camp, even after a less-than-thrilling showing in Week 18 against Green Bay.) There are valid arguments on both sides of this question. Ultimately, those opinions and arguments mean little because the choice is not ours to make. If the Bears front office is unconvinced after three seasons of Fields leading this team that he is THE GUY, then they will likely trade him (for less than a first-round pick) and target one of the top prospects in this year’s draft (like USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye.) If, on the other hand, with the improvement they’ve begun to see in Fields over the last seven weeks they feel confident they have the game’s most important position locked down, then they will hold him, build around him, and likely sell the No. 1 pick for a massive haul. Earlier in the season, it seemed the writing was on the wall. The Bears were moving on from Fields. But Fields has played at such a high level recently that he has made the decision much more difficult. No matter what the Bears brass decide there will be no way to know if they got it right or wrong until next season, but until then there will be a lot of debating and opinions flying around on both sides. Let’s take a look at the arguments for and against keeping Fields.
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Move on from Justin Fields
If we look strictly at the statistical data since Justin Fields has come into the NFL his career stats are not great, specifically in crunch time. In his very young career, Justin Fields has thrown 258 passes in the 4th quarter and has only completed about 56% of them with 10 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. That doesn’t exactly instill confidence that Fields can come through when the game is on the line. Now look at this season, a season where Fields has undeniably shown improvement. Fields has five fumbles in the 4th quarter this season and it could be argued that three of them led directly to losses for the Bears. That’s the difference between making and missing the playoffs. But that’s not all. Right now, among quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts this season, Fields ranks 16th in touchdown rate at 4.5%, and his 2.5% interception rate ranks 19th. Yes, Fields is a dynamic runner and playmaker, but there’s only so far that can get you if opponents don’t respect your ability to pass the ball. Only Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa have thrown more third-down interceptions this season than Fields’. I get it, no one is talking about moving on from Allen or Tagovailoa, but Fields has consistently been average before showing bursts of brilliance so he has not earned the benefit of the doubt. Plus, this inability to come through down the stretch is not something that started in Chicago. He had instances of it in college too. For example, he had the opportunity to beat Clemson in the 2019 Fiesta Bowl before throwing an interception in the end zone, and a few weeks prior to that he threw two interceptions in the second half that nearly allowed Indiana to pull off a come from behind upset. Whether it’s right or not, this fact may be the thing that ultimately forces Ryan Poles to move on from the 3rd-year signal caller.
Even this season Fields has been all over the place before finally looking like he’s beginning to settle in. Take the Cleveland Browns game for example. I felt sorry for Darnell Mooney in this one because Bears fans seemed intent on blaming him for the loss when he was unable to pull in a last-second “Hail Mary” from Fields. But what people forget is two things. First, the defense let them down in that one, no question. But the Bears were in the position to need that “Hail Mary” attempt also in part due to a poor performance by Fields. Fields finished the game 19-for-40 for 166 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions (one of which was that final heave). Not only that but Fields continues to make some of the same mistakes he has a history of, chief among them is that his internal clock and ability to read defenses (while improved) still appear a little slow. So while there have been highs, there have been plenty of lows, too, and we have yet to see an entire season of the most important commodity, consistency.
Then there’s the pragmatic financial situation and what moving on from Fields now would mean for the organization. Fields will still be on his rookie deal in 2024, which will provide a lot of flexibility for the upcoming offseason. But they’ll have to decide on his fifth-year option shortly, and if they should accept it, they’ll be on the hook for over $20 million in 2025. While that’s still on the lower end for a starting NFL quarterback it’s a significant amount. After that, they have to think about an extension or putting the franchise tag on him. Fields’ current projected value gives him nearly a $44 million annual salary, making him the 9th highest-paid QB in the league. The franchise tag costs nearly $36 million in 2024 and will likely be even higher in 2026. In today’s NFL, it’s a no-brainer to pay great QBs like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson. The question the Bears will have to ask is even if Fields isn’t great now, could he be, and can they foresee a championship with him under center?
None of what I have mentioned even takes into consideration the evaluations of Caleb Williams and Drake Maye (the likely quarterbacks the Bears would be targeting with the No. 1 pick.) Williams has a lot of the same traits as Fields; he’s creative, he’s athletic (though not as athletic as Fields, but it’s close), and he has a cannon for an arm (even more so than Fields.) His downfield accuracy is also very good and no one can deny his accomplishments in college. While Williams does tend to hold onto the ball too long and will at times try to play hero, those traits are easier to deal with when a player is on a rookie contract. Given Williams’ age, talent, and the fact that Fields (being in year 3) has not progressed as quickly as they had hoped, Poles might believe the ceiling is higher for Williams and choose to move forward with the USC rookie. Then there’s Maye. Maye is more of a traditional pocket passer and is a better distributor of the ball and game-manager than Williams. If that is the type of offense the Bears feel more comfortable running then the choice could be an easy one. Maye also has a strong arm, is an above-average athlete at QB, and at 6-foot-4 and 230 lbs. is an ideal size and body type for an NFL quarterback. Maye has often been compared to Justin Herbert. Maye’s ceiling is not as high as it is for Williams, but his floor could be arguably higher, and if the comparisons to Herbert play out then his ceiling could be higher than Fields’ as well. There’s also the simple fact that this regime did not draft Fields and may want to simply pick “their guy.” It’s hard to believe that the Bears, for the second straight season, find themselves with the same question; do they draft a rookie quarterback or hold onto Fields? After seeing how successful C.J. Stroud has been in his rookie season, this is not a choice they can afford to get wrong, because if they trade the No. 1 pick (for the second time) and either Williams or Maye outperform Fields, many people could be out of a job.
Keep Justin Fields
If we look at Justin Fields and the situation he landed in, we should all be able to agree on the fact that Fields was dealt a bad hand. Right from the start it was clear that Matt Nagy and the coaching staff were unsure of how to develop and ultimately utilize a QB of Fields’ skill set. On top of that, due to some of GM Ryan Pace’s more ill-advised tendencies the Bears were stuck with very little draft capital and an aging roster. With the departure of Pace and Nagy, Fields was forced to learn an entirely new system when new head coach Matt Eberflus came to town and brought with him new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. Plus, the talent around Fields was deemed one of the worst group of position players in the league. The second-leading wide receiver in 2022 for the Bears was Equanimeous St. Brown, which should tell you all you need to know about that receiving room, and the offensive line has been a work in progress ever since Fields entered the league. Fast forward to 2023, and you’ll see a much better roster creating far more opportunities for Fields to succeed. First off, Fields finally has a true No. 1 wide receiver in D.J. Moore. Gone are the days of forcing natural WR2s into an alpha wide receiver role. Now Fields has a reliable and electric top dog to throw to. The offensive line has also improved. By adding Darnell Wright and Nate Davis, as well as the development of Braxton Jones and Teven Jenkins, this is a much better squad than in years past. TE Cole Kmet is developing into one of the better pass catchers at the position, and the run game (which includes Fields) is still a major part of the success of this offense. So there are pieces there to build around, making a push for a competitive playoff team, and with the draft capital the Bears will have in 2024 as well as the amount of money they have to work with this offseason, there’s a lot there to consider.
Keeping Fields, it could be argued, allows the Bears more flexibility when it comes to the draft and the offseason. It is inarguable that Chicago could obtain a much more impressive haul by trading the No. 1 pick than they could by trading Fields. The possibilities to build their roster while keeping a young, QB who has shown improvement and been downright electric at times seem endless. They could trade the pick for another high pick and additional compensation, giving them a chance to grab another elite WR like Ohio State superstar Marvin Harrison, Jr or they could trade down for even more compensation, possibly even more than they received in 2023. There have even been reports that Maxx Crosby from the Raiders could be available. If a deal like that can get done, it’s hard to imagine Poles & Co. not at least considering it. This would allow them to decide on the best way to build this roster. Do they still draft a wide receiver, or go offensive line, or defense? This flexibility cannot be understated and may be the best way to improve their team right now. There’s also no way to know how the team they trade with will do in 2024. They could still be a bad team, giving the Bears another high draft pick with which to work if Fields doesn’t progress like they hope next season. But trading down and surrounding Fields with better weapons and an improved offensive line gives him one more shot to show them what they truly have in him.
Also, with all the talk about the things Fields doesn’t do well, there seems to be very little discussion about the positive things he brings to the table. There’s no denying his physical ability, arm strength, or elite athleticism. Fields is the most athletically gifted quarterback in Bears history, and it’s not even close. Even in the type of situation that would be unfortunate for any young QB, Fields has been able to make plays that few in the NFL are capable of making. His pocket awareness and ability to read defenses are improving (although that progression has been admittedly slower than the Bears would’ve hoped.) More importantly, Fields finally started to do what you want your quarterback to do…win games, winning four of his last six.
There’s also the very real aspect of team chemistry to consider. This Bears team improved in the second half of the season and seemed to be beginning to gel. Breaking up that chemistry could set the team back several seasons, and when you have leaders on the team like D.J. Moore, among others, making public statements about how Fields is their quarterback and he wants him back, on top of fans chanting “We want Fields” at games, those opinions can’t simply be ignored. If a decision you make is going to be unpopular with your team and fans alike then you better make sure it’s the right decision.
Which brings us to the one aspect of this that seems to get very little airtime. What if Caleb Williams or Drake Maye are worse than Fields or simply not worth the investment of a No. 1 pick? History tells us to be wary of quarterbacks taken with the first pick. The Bears have a good team with some solid pieces to build around, and there’s no guarantee that a new QB will make this team better. Of the last 10 QBs taken No. 1 overall, only one had a winning record as a rookie (Andrew Luck in 2012) and only four of the previous 10 QBs drafted with the first pick have won more than one playoff game with the team that drafted them (Joe Burrow, Luck, Cam Newton, and Jared Goff.) With that amount of risk, you have to feel extremely confident in your evaluation process to pass on what you could get for that pick. Having two top-10 picks to add to an improving roster (not to mention the additional compensation or $64.7 million the Bears currently have in cap space) with an improving quarterback who knows the system and has the locker room and fans behind him, may ultimately prove the best option.
My Thoughts
The truth is, there is no easy answer here. I tried to present both arguments as I see them, fairly and honestly. If I were Ryan Poles I’m not sure what I would do. Having already passed on taking a top QB in 2023 (C.J. Stroud anyone), I would understand the instinct to pull the trigger on one of the top guys this year. The question Poles will have to consider is whether or not he’s ok with potentially setting the team back a season or two. History tells us that rookie quarterbacks perform much closer to Bryce Young’s 2023 than C.J. Stroud’s (who wasn’t even the No. 1 pick.) Sometimes there is value in knowing what you have and building around it. This may especially be the case when you have the team and fans telling you what they want. On the other hand, if Poles chooses not to select Williams or Maye and they turn into superstars while Fields continues to develop slower than desired, Poles will have once again passed on a difference-maker at the most important position in football. I do not envy Poles’ choice. Fields (even with ending the season on a sour note losing to Green Bay) has made the decision much more difficult than it appeared earlier in the season. Ultimately, the choice will be Poles’ to make. If, through his evaluation of this rookie class of signal callers he believes there is a franchise QB that could take his team to the next level then he should make that call, even if it means some growing pains next season. However, if he is unsure at all about the potential of the QB he would be drafting, and would only be doing so to reset the financial clock, then the smart move may be to keep Fields for another season, get what he can for the No. 1 pick, build around Fields, and improve this roster in other areas. One thing is for sure. We will not know for some time. Poles will sit with these questions as long as he can because whichever way he goes, his legacy and job are likely both linked to this decision.
