NFL Winners, Losers, and Takeaways
After the wildest Week 15, fantasy managers dealt with several COVID-19 cases and injuries that popped up in Week 16. The Ravens lost Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley, and Josh Johnson started. Johnson didn’t fare too poorly with 304 passing yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. However, it turned into a week where fantasy managers started risky players or ones that would play on Thursday or Saturday to play it safe.
Joe Burrow put up career numbers against the Ravens and feasted on them as Patrick Mahomes feasted on the Raiders. One snippet of Week 16 involves the leaders in fantasy points at the receiver position, evidenced by Byron Pringle (WR7), Isaiah McKenzie (WR4), and Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR6). Although we’re not surprised by St. Brown, since we noted him as a playoff sleeper, Pringle and McKenzie balled out. We’ll touch on the injuries to monitor, plus the Week 16 highlights, wonders, and disappointments as we head into the championship Week 17.
Injuries to Monitor:
- James Robinson (Achilles) looks to have suffered an Achilles injury. That’s unfortunate because Robinson garnered decent volume in one of the league’s worst offenses, evidenced by a 71.1% (No. 8) Opportunity Share and 168.8 (No. 16) Weighted Opportunities. Although not recommended, fantasy managers could look at Dare Ogunbowale as a speculative pick-up on the Jaguars. Ogunbowale finished with 17 carries, 57 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown. He also reeled in two receptions for 15 receiving yards.
Jaguars’ HC Darrell Bevell announced that RB James Robinson tore his Achilles today vs. the Jets.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 26, 2021
- Adam Thielen (ankle) hurt his ankle again on Sunday. Thielen missed a couple of games with a high ankle injury and reeled in two targets for 34 receiving yards. He returned to the game to finish with three receptions and 40 receiving yards, but it sounds like a possible new injury. Monitor the news for one of Kirk Cousins’s top targets.
- Miles Sanders (hand) hurt his hand and left against the Giants. Sanders rushed for 45 yards on seven carries.
- Unfortunately, Jordan Howard (stinger) also left Sunday’s game, which meant Boston Scott scooped up some production. Howard finished with nine carries and 37 rushing yards with two receptions for 19 yards. Scott led the Eagles backfield with 12 rushing attempts, 41 rushing yards, and one touchdown. Scoop up Scott for the Week 17 matchup assuming Sanders and Howard miss time.
- Darrell Henderson (knee) left Sunday’s game with a knee injury, but Sony Michel garnered most of the Rams’ backfield work. If Henderson misses, Michel should still hold value as an RB1. Per Ian Rapoport, Henderson has a knee sprain.
- It sounds like Clyde Edwards-Helaire (shoulder) has a collarbone or shoulder injury. Edwards-Helaire will undergo more testing on Monday. He finished with 27 rushing yards on nine carries with one rushing touchdown. Look for Darrel Williams to garner more opportunities for the Chiefs like earlier in the season if Edwards-Helaire misses Week 17.
Week 16 Highlights
A.J. Brown & Deebo Samuel Dominate
Although the Titans and 49ers struggled on Thursday night, A.J. Brown and Deebo Samuel dominated. In Brown’s first game back, he busted out in the second half to finish with 11 receptions on 16 targets (55.2%) for 145 receiving yards and one touchdown. Brown notched a career-best 55.2% target share with a previous high of 43% back in Week 9 of the 2020 season against the Bears. Brown accounted for 69.4% of the team’s receiving yards on Thursday. That production mirrored Week 7 and 8 against Kansas City and Indianapolis with 18 receptions on 20 targets for 288 receiving yards and two TDs. Hopefully, Brown helps fantasy managers down the stretch that made it this far without one of their top picks.
In A.J. Brown’s first game back, he busted out in the second half to finish with 11 receptions on 16 targets for 145 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Brown reached a career-best 55.2% target share with a previous high of 43% back in Week 9 of 2020 against the Bears. pic.twitter.com/LCkGfmK4di
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) December 24, 2021
Without Elijah Mitchell, the 49ers used Jeff Wilson and Deebo Samuel as their primary rushers. Wilson faced a tough matchup against the Titans that allowed the second-fewest rushing yards and fewest fantasy points to the running back position heading into Week 16. Wilson saved his day with a goal-line touchdown with 45 rushing yards plus three receptions and 12 receiving yards. Samuel added 32 rushing yards on five carries with nine receptions on 11 targets (31.4%) for 159 receiving yards.
From Week 1-9, Samuel averaged 10.1 targets per game with a 32.3% target share, 32.9% Air Yards Share, and 110.3 receiving yards. Then from Week 10-15, the 49ers used Samuel more as a rusher, so the targets dropped to 3.4 per game with a 10.9% target share, 15% Air Yards Share, and 41.2 receiving yards. Meanwhile, Samuel recorded 33 rushing attempts with 247 rushing yards (49.4 per game). It’s positive to see Samuel’s role switch back to the early season, although Samuel averaged 19.9 fantasy points in Week 10-15 compared to 20.7 in Week 1-9 partly due to the six rushing touchdowns on less volume.
Isaiah McKenzie Led Bills’ Receivers
Without Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley, Josh Allen fed Isaiah McKenzie the ball with 11 receptions on 12 targets (25.5%) for 125 receiving yards and one touchdown. The 4.42 40-yard dash speedster logged a career-best game with a total of 13 catches and 103 receiving yards over his past 13 games. Stefon Diggs put up another quality day with seven of 13 (27.7%) targets for 85 receiving yards and one touchdown. Unfortunately, Emmanuel Sanders only caught two of four targets for 20 receiving yards, with McKenzie as a deep-league sleeper. With Davis and Beasley likely out next week, look at McKenzie as a deep-league flex option against the Falcons.
The #BillsMafia might need to consider keeping Isaiah McKenzie as a near full-time player. His speed is so valuable with Josh Allen buying so much time. pic.twitter.com/O40TjQjz1u
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) December 27, 2021
Finally, It’s Rashaad Penny SZN
We knew Rashaad Penny possessed the talent, but it’s mostly about health for Penny’s career. Against the Bears, Penny rushed for 135 yards on 17 attempts and one touchdown. Penny compiled over 100 yards for the second time in the last three games. After playing 13 games during his rookie season, Penny totaled 12 in 2019 and 2020, then eight, including Week 16 in 2021.
Not including Week 16, Rashaad Penny boasted efficient production in games where he garnered >=10 rushing attempts.
Penny recorded his 5th career game with over 100 total yards. Hopefully, he stays healthy because he’s talented with 1.8 YBC, 2.9 YAC, and a 13% evasion% in 2021. pic.twitter.com/D4Fy5OMB29
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) December 27, 2021
Throughout Penny’s career, he boasted efficiency on limited touches. In games where Penny garnered ten or more rushing attempts, he averaged just under 77 rushing yards and 14.9 fantasy points per game. However, in those other contests where he didn’t meet the rushing attempts threshold, Penny rushed for 20 yards and 3.3 fantasy points.
Week 16 Wonders
No James Conner, No Problem
Chase Edmonds filled in nicely with James Conner ruled out. Edmonds led the Cardinals backfield with 56 rushing yards and 16 rushing attempts. Jonathan Ward took a single carry for three rushing yards – the only other back with a rushing attempt. Without DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore, Edmonds served as the Cardinals’ lead receiver with eight receptions and 71 receiving yards on nine targets (20.9%). He tied Christian Kirk in targets, but Zach Ertz led the team with 13 (30.2%). The 127 total yards ranked near his season-high of 139 total yards. It’s positive to see this type of full workload for Edmonds without Conner, especially in PPR leagues with a season-high eight receptions.
Joe Burrow & The Bengals Dominate The Ravens
Against the Ravens, Joe Burrow dominated this season with 941 pass yards (470.5/game), 11.2 yards per attempt, seven touchdowns, and one interception. Versus other teams, Burrow totaled 3,224 pass yards (248/game), 8.1 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Burrow feasted on Sunday with 525 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. He set career-highs in passing yards and touchdowns.
Joe Burrow vs. the Ravens – 941 pass yards (470.5/game), 11.2 YPA, 7 TD – 1 INT
Joe Burrow vs. everyone else – 3,224 pass yards (248/game), 8.1 YPA, 23 TD, 14 INT pic.twitter.com/Cn5gJbRmx7
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) December 26, 2021
Tee Higgins led the Bengals with 12 receptions on 13 targets for 194 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Higgins also set career highs across the board on Sunday. Ja’Marr Chase put up his fourth 100-yard game – his first since Week 7 against the Ravens. It came after a Week 15 dud, where Chase caught one reception for three receiving yards. Unfortunately, the Bengals don’t play the Ravens again in Week 17. However, Burrow’s production helped Joe Mixon garner two touchdowns with 135 total yards plus Tyler Boyd’s efficient three receptions for 85 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Dak Prescott Said Watch Out, Joe Burrow
After Joe Burrow’s massive performance in the early slate of games, the afternoon games seemed underwhelming. In the Sunday night game, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys blew out the Washington Football Team 56-14, so Prescott took a seat in the fourth quarter. With the Cowboys’ defense plus Prescott’s efficient passing day, they routed the WFT.
Here’s an all-timer from @ESPNStatsInfo: #Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has thrown a touchdown to a RB, TE, WR and an OL tonight vs Washington. He’s the first quarterback in NFL history to accomplish this feat in a single game. h/t @bryan.beasley
— Ed Werder (@WerderEdESPN) December 27, 2021
Prescott finished with 330 passing yards, 8.5 YPA, and four touchdowns with 21 additional rushing yards. In Week 16, Prescott reached the 300 yard mark for the first time since Week 12 against the Raiders for his fifth time passing that threshold. Thus, Prescott finished as the No. 2 quarterback behind Burrow in Week 16, not including the Monday night game. After three consecutive down performances of QB21, QB23, and QB23, it’s nice to see Prescott hit the QB1 mark that he commonly reached seven times in his first ten games.
Week 16 Disappointments
Jonathan Taylor Didn’t Score a Touchdown
After 11 straight games with a touchdown, Jonathan Taylor rushed for over 100 yards, yet no touchdown scored. We’re half-joking that he’s a disappointment with an unreal fantasy season for Taylor. Although Taylor didn’t score a touchdown, he totaled over 100 yards in 11 out of the last 12 games. Even with a heavy workload, the streak of 19 total touchdowns in 11 straight games eventually would end.
Matthew Stafford Throws Three Picks
Matthew Stafford threw three picks against the Vikings, who allow the third-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Stafford finished with 197 passing yards, 5.3 YPA, one touchdown, and three interceptions. Cooper Kupp soaked up most of Stafford’s passing production with ten receptions on 13 targets for 109 receiving yards. Odell Beckham Jr. reeled in Stafford’s only touchdown and finished with four receptions and 37 receiving yards on eight targets.
However, the Rams relied on their kicker and special teams touchdown plus Sony Michel‘s rushing game to reach their 11th win of the season. Michel took on 27 of the team’s 29 total running back attempts for 131 rushing yards and one touchdown. Darrell Henderson hasn’t factored in much over the past two games but also hurt his knee on Sunday. In five games, where Michel took on a full workload, he averaged 107.4 total yards compared to Henderson’s 82 in his first ten games. Michel and Henderson possess slightly different profiles, with better yards before contact for Henderson and more yards after for Michel.
The Broncos Offense
In their 17-13 loss to the Raiders, the Broncos only possessed the ball for over 23 minutes. With no Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Lock played quarterback. Unfortunately, the Broncos’ offense stunk. Javonte Williams saved his day with a Devonta Freeman-like performance of seven carries, 12 rushing yards, and one touchdown. Williams caught both targets for eight receiving yards. Williams would’ve scored four fantasy points in PPR leagues if he didn’t get that touchdown.
FEED JAVONTE WILLIAMS pic.twitter.com/kfCMxVO1w1
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 26, 2021
The Broncos totaled 158 yards on offense compared to the Raiders with 342. Besides facing Patrick Mahomes, the Raiders haven’t been a slouch on defense with the 20th most passing yards (225.3) and 8th most rushing yards (122.7) per game. Melvin Gordon shared the backfield with Williams, but they totaled 14 attempts with eight rushing yards. Even from a snap share perspective, Gordon played on 54.8%, with Williams one snap behind at 52.4%. It’s one game, but even the pass-catchers didn’t fare well, with Jerry Jeudy leading the way with three catches on four targets for 60 receiving yards. Courtland Sutton trailed behind with four catches and 33 receiving yards on five targets. With the low time of possession, brutal offense outside of the typical run game, it’s hard to trust the Broncos in Week 17 against the Chargers.
Don’t Panic On Tyreek Hill
After landing on the COVID-19 list this past week, the Chiefs activated him on Saturday to play on Sunday. Hill caught both targets for 19 receiving yards, but Kansas City led 30-3 heading into the fourth quarter, so they didn’t need Hill that much. If we look beyond the box score, Hill played on 42% of the snaps that ranked fourth on the team in Week 16. It’s safe to wonder if they eased Hill back in off the COVID list while looking ahead to the NFL Playoffs. Hopefully, Hill returns to WR1 status against the Bengals in Week 17.
