Will Drew Lock Breakout in Fantasy in 2020?

Drew Lock Fantasy 2020

There seems to be some helium surrounding Drew Lock. The 2019 second-round pick is now the Denver Broncos starting quarterback, so what should we expect from Lock in 2020? Will this be Lock’s breakout season? Or should we be fading him in drafts?

We’ll look at Lock’s 2019 production in five games in addition to the offensive tendencies and weapons around him. We’ll also compare the Broncos’ offense with the Giants’ offense since the Broncos have a new offensive coordinator. Let’s dive in to see if Lock will break out in 2020. 

2019 Production

Last season, Drew Lock played in five games and finished with 1,020 passing yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions. If Lock played a full 16 games, he would’ve ended with 3,264 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He averaged 13.6 fantasy points per game which ranked 30th and tied with Eli Manning who played in four games last year. 

The highlight game of Lock’s season came in week 14 against the Houston Texans when he threw for 309 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. The Texans were the 4th worst in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, so Lock took advantage of a weak matchup. Outside of that one game, Lock only broke 200 passing yards once with 208 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception against the Kansas City Chiefs. 

Offensive Tendencies in 2019

Let’s look at the offensive tendencies for the Denver Broncos last season. In 2019, the Broncos ranked 27th with 31.5 pass attempts per game and ranked 14th with 25.6 rush attempts per game. Lock averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game and that’s right in line with the season-long statistics. Last year they ran 11-personnel 52% of the time, so that’s one tight end, one running back, and three wide receivers. They also used 12-personnel (16%) and 21-personnel (17%) about the same according to Sharp Football Stats. 

The Broncos have a new offensive coordinator in Pat Shurmur, so a question comes up – how much will the Broncos’ offense change? According to a Sports Illustrated article looking into this exact impact, it sounds like Shurmur likes to spread out defenses and use 11-personnel quite often. This same article also noted the historical pairings of Shurmur and the quarterbacks he’s worked with such as Marc Bulger, Nick Foles, and the Giants’ quarterbacks the last two years. It’s yet to be determined whether this will have a positive impact on Lock’s value in 2020 although it does seem promising. 

Let’s briefly look at the Giants’ offense under Shurmur the last two years. 

In 2018 we can see the Giants’ offense was towards the bottom or middle of the pack except in the passing game with Eli Manning at quarterback. Then in 2019, it was similar but a slight decrease in the passing game with Daniel Jones starting in 12 games. 

Comparing the Broncos and Giants

The table below will compare each team’s rush and pass attempts per game while also comparing the defenses in terms of points allowed and total yards allowed per game. This will give us a snapshot as to whether the offensive tendencies related to the strength of the defense and game script.

We can see in the table above, the Giants’ defense struggled and usually teams with bad defense throw more often. Therefore teams with bad defenses, play from behind and run the ball less, especially when you add in an often injured Saquon Barkley last year. The Broncos defense was in the top half of the league in terms of points and yards allowed, and they ranked 14th in rushing attempts. Assuming their defense remains steady, won’t they continue running the ball a decent amount with Melvin Gordon?

Next, let’s look at where each team’s offensive line ranked last season according to Football Outsiders. When we compare pass protection, the Giants ranked eight spots higher but allowed a similar number of sacks. The Giants ranked 17th and the Broncos ranked 25th in pass protection with 43 sacks allowed for the Giants and 41 sacks allowed for the Broncos. In terms of run blocking, we see that the Broncos offensive line ranked in the top-8 while the Giants ranked 28th. So it makes sense to see the Broncos run the ball more with a better run-blocking offensive line. Overall the Broncos’ run blocking was better and both teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of pass protection. 

Offensive Skill Players

In the offseason, the Broncos added two key offensive pieces in Melvin Gordon and rookie Jerry Jeudy. Last year, Phillip Lindsay and Courtland Sutton both finished with solid seasons and led the team at their position. The Broncos also have an athletic and explosive second-year tight end in Noah Fant, so maybe we see Fant improve as well. Now we’ll compare the production from the main offensive skill players when playing with and without Lock as their quarterback. 

We can see that Lindsay, Sutton, and Fant produced fewer fantasy points per game with Lock at quarterback. However, Lock averaged more fantasy points per game than the combined averages from Joe Flacco and Brandon Allen. Sure it’s a small sample size, but the data’s still interesting. Sutton’s still the WR-1 in this offense, but Lindsay will take a back seat to Gordon as the top running back. We know Gordon was utilized in the passing game, but the running backs received almost two fewer targets per game with Lock. So it’ll be interesting to see what happens although we expect the Broncos to give Gordon most of the opportunities as their lead running back. 

Lock barely targeted Fant, but there weren’t a ton of targets to go around in a lower volume passing offense. Add Jeudy into the mix and it’s safe to wonder how the targets will be distributed. We can presume that Sutton will lead the team in targets with Gordon or Jeudy as the next most targeted receiver. However, there are only 58 available targets to go around according to a Rotoworld article by John Daigle. If the passing volume increases in 2020, then we might see an increase in Lock’s production and the available targets. So will 2020 be Lock’s breakout season?

Will Lock Breakout in 2020?

Prior to diving deeper, my initial answer was no. After doing more research, I’m still hesitant but add him to your watch list with the promising offensive additions and coaching changes. On Fantasy Football Calculator, Lock’s 137.3 ADP makes him the 18th quarterback drafted in between Cam Newton and Joe Burrow. I generally prefer to wait on quarterbacks, but I’ll pass on Lock and use the wait and see approach especially in a 1-QB league. However, if you’re in a Superflex league, then he’s more of a third quarterback.