Zero RB Strategy
Playing fantasy football is not as simple as it may sound. Fantasy managers are given many options to build their roster and often feel the need to decide on a strategy with conviction. The issue many, including myself, tend to run into during drafts is the inability to be adaptable and experiencing feelings of hesitancy towards deviating from the original strategy. Avoiding tunnel vision on particular players is crucial, especially in the mid-to-late rounds, where value takes on more importance than getting your guy. Taking a calculated risk and investing in the value a player offers within an offense is generally how leagues are won and lost during fantasy drafts, regardless of whether or not it feels satisfactory in the moment.
There are modified versions of the Zero RB strategy, but all go against the generally accepted principle of building your roster by targeting running backs early and often.
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Zero RB strategy does not hold as much weight in popularity compared to the ZeroWR strategy. Taking the name of the Zero RB strategy at face value implies that fantasy managers will avoid drafting any and all running backs. However, this is not a feasible approach because nearly all leagues and formats require at least two running backs in a starting lineup. The more realistic application of the Zero RB strategy can be summarized as avoiding running backs during the first three to four selections in a fantasy draft. Managers instead focus on drafting elite wide receivers, tight ends, and even quarterbacks, turning towards filling the running back holes on their roster in the mid-to-late rounds. This is the inverse of the more popular ZeroWR strategy, where managers pay a premium for running backs with a large projected target share and a locked-in workhorse role within a team’s rushing attack.
In reality, the value of running back targets far outweighs the value of carries in PPR formats, as the additional points and opportunities given past the line of scrimmage often translate into bigger plays, resulting in higher fantasy points per game (FPPG). For example, Ezekiel Elliot, Melvin Gordon, and Kenyan Drake received the lion’s share of carries in their respective backfields in 2020 but only Elliot finished as an RB1 (RB11) in half-PPR formats. On the other hand, 16 of 17 running backs that saw at least 50 targets finished as an RB3 or better in 2020, with only five of the 17 players eclipsing 200 rushing attempts. This will continue to occur as more offensive coordinators and head coaches incorporate running backs as legitimate receivers in certain personnel packages.
Wide Receiver and Tight End to Draft Using a Zero RB Draft Strategy
Elite running backs entering the 2021 season include Christian McCaffery, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, and Aaron Jones. These players are among the safest ways to begin your draft. However, Jones is the only running back out of this elite group projected to be available at the end of the first round in half-PPR formats. Understanding that Aaron Rodgers may not return to Green Bay in 2021 and A.J. Dillon’s likelihood of being used in goal-line scenarios, pivoting to adopt a Zero RB strategy could be the ideal decision if you find yourself drafting later in a 12-man league. Drafting the league’s top tight-end Travis Kelce or grabbing his teammate, All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill, is a fantastic foundation for your redraft roster. Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and DeAndre Hopkins are other high-volume, alpha wide receivers that will provide an edge over the majority of your league mates who opt to start their draft with two running backs.
It will be tempting to abandon the Zero RB approach understanding how deep the wide receiver prospects are in 2021, especially as the league evolves into more pass-oriented playcalling. An important statistic to keep you committed to a Zero RB strategy is that wide receivers who totaled at least 130 targets all finished as a WR2 or higher in 2020. Drafting Kelce in the first round effectively places a top-five wide receiver into your tight end slot, creating a massive advantage over your league mates that opt to wait until the later rounds. Kelce was fifth in targets per game with 9.7. This statistic also applies to stud wideouts like Keenan Allen, Adams, Diggs, and Hopkins, who all averaged 10 or more targets per game in 2020. Having a pair of unquestioned alpha receivers, especially if you draft an elite tight end to become a de facto WR1 such as Kelce, George Kittle, or Darren Waller, will pay dividends once the season begins.
2020 Leaders in First read target share🎯– (Powered by @FTNData)
Davante Adams (35.3%)
Darren Waller (34.3%)
Deandre Hopkins (31.5%)
Allen Robinson (29.4%)
Justin Jefferson (29.4%)📈▶️https://t.co/KN60Kmnzra pic.twitter.com/07mtCUF7tC
— FTNNetwork (@FTNNetwork) June 25, 2021
While it tends to be safer starting your draft with a high-usage running back, so much of settling on a fantasy draft strategy relies on the spot you’re drafting out of. There are several good running backs that are currently undervalued and available in the third and fourth rounds in half-PPR redraft leagues. I will analyze a few of them and make a case for why they can take you to a championship, assuming you’ve already hit on a pair of elite pass catchers. However, it’s important to address the quarterback position beforehand, as there are a few dual-threat quarterbacks available that are capable of generating high-end production to overcome the lack of a bonafide RB1 when using the Zero RB Strategy.
Quarterbacks to Draft Using a Zero RB Strategy
Drafting a quarterback with proven rushing upside and a high touchdown rate is a great way to replace a top-tier running back. For example, Kyler Murray averaged 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game in 2020, ranking second-highest in the league behind only Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry. Josh Allen ranked third-highest with 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game, while both quarterbacks averaged 23.7 fantasy points per game or higher in half-PPR formats. Carries, particularly near the goal-line or in the redzone, hold immense value for elusive dual-threat quarterbacks. Murray and Allen have rocket arms and can deliver significant passing plays consistently, as both players attempted at least 69 passes of 20 yards or deeper in 2020, with Murray completing 40 percent and Allen connecting on 44.9 percent of deep-ball attempts. Landing either of these quarterbacks at their current ADP, Allen at 38th and Murray at 50th is an advantageous selection that will flood fantasy lineups with points and likely be the deciding factor in a few close matchups throughout the season.
A quarterback who is being drafted at his floor with an average ADP of 49.9 is Lamar Jackson. Many fantasy managers were disappointed in Jackson’s reduced touchdown rate, which fell from 9.1 percent during his 2019 MVP season to 6.9 percent in 2020. While this appears to be a significant drop-off, he still ranked fourth-highest in touchdown rate despite the Ravens offensive line ranking 16th in protection rate. The 2021 offensive line has been improved with the additions of several linemen, including rookie G Ben Cleveland and tackles Alejandro Villanueva and Ronnie Stanley securing the edges for Jackson. A cleaner pocket will reduce pressure, which could lead to Jackson producing a higher true passer rating. All areas of the Baltimore offense have been addressed during the Ravens’ offseason. The wide receiving corps signed veteran Sammy Watkins to a one-year deal, along with drafting a pair of rookie wideouts in Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace to complement Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews in their passing attack.
Expect Jackson to noticeably increase the 25.1 passing attempts per game he averaged in 2020, which ranked 34th in the league. The offense is still called by OC Greg Roman and will continue to prioritize the rushing attack that guarantees the 24-year old quarterback’s rushing upside. Jackson was the only quarterback to surpass 1,000 rushing yards in 2020 and accounted for seven touchdowns, behind only Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, and Josh Allen. Jackson’s rushing ability allowed him to average 22.2 fantasy points per game in an offense deplete with wide receivers and lackluster pass protection. This occurred even with a remarkably low number of passing attempts that resulted in Jackson completing just 36.3 percent of his passes under pressure, which ranked 22nd, suggesting that the weakness was an injured offensive line and a mostly barren receiving corps. The rejuvenated receiving corps should create a more balanced offensive approach, resulting in less contested running lanes for Jackson to seize upon and evade defenders with his electrifying home-run rushing ability.
Murray, Allen, and Jackson are all available in the fourth and fifth rounds of 1QB redraft leagues. These are the rounds where fantasy managers implementing a Zero RB draft strategy should prioritize taking a top-tier fantasy quarterback to strengthen their roster and satisfy the need for a high-volume rusher. Landing one of the league’s top dual-threat quarterbacks in an offense that designs redzone and goal-line attempts creates an advantage over other managers in your league. It’s a great move that will allow Zero RB strategists to feel comfortable with their rosters before pivoting to address the position most others in the league have already loaded up on.
Running Backs to Draft Using a Zero RB Strategy
The earliest round to start drafting running backs when adopting the Zero RB strategy in 2021 is in the fifth or sixth rounds. Although it may feel awful and disparaging to draft a running back who finished outside of the top-12 in 2020 as your RB1 in 2021, there are several under-the-radar options that present excellent values at their current ADP. Some of these running backs are rookies who landed in the perfect system and situation relative to personnel, so don’t be surprised when these names are in your starting lineup after deploying a Zero RB strategy. Although obvious, it should be noted that the strength of a Zero RB lineup is its ability to find mid-to-late round running backs who fell down the draft boards or identifying situations where the remaining running backs can quickly ascend the depth chart and solidify a starting role.
Contrary to popular belief, there are still a few consistently productive running backs available to draft in the fifth round. Kareem Hunt is one of the premier players that can flood your lineup with chunk plays and receptions. Although he splits touches with Nick Chubb, Hunt has a significant advantage as the featured passing option in the Cleveland backfield. Hunt saw 51 targets in comparison to Chubb’s 18 targets in 2020, which led to 38 receptions for 304 yards and five touchdowns. While Hunt averaged 4.2 yards per carry (YPC) versus Chubb’s 5.6 YPC, he totaled eight more carries (198) than Chubb and still finished with 841 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. Let other fantasy managers in your league make the mistake of ignoring Hunt, who can produce enough fantasy points consistently week-to-week through his involvement in both facets of the offense.
Another player with proven pass-catching ability as a running back is Mike Davis. He was highly efficient with 70 targets in a lackluster Panthers offense in 2020, converting these opportunities into 59 receptions for 373 yards and two touchdowns. This year on the Atlanta Falcons, a historically pass-centric team, Davis currently has every opportunity to use this developed skillset to accommodate wide receiver Calvin Ridley and rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. He isn’t the best runner, averaging just 3.9 YPC on 165 carries in 2020. However, Davis could feast at the goal-line if Atlanta is effective in moving the ball down the field under new head coach Arthur Smith. Davis carries a 220-pound frame with a low center of gravity standing at just 5’9. Matt Ryan likes to get the ball out quickly and isn’t mobile, so dump-off passes to Davis will often be a designed or improvised extension of the Falcons’ rushing attack. I have no problem taking Davis’ usage in a pass-heavy offense and inserting him into my RB1 slot, even though you’re drafting him at his absolute ceiling. The passing work in an Atlanta offense, plus some third and fourth-round draft picks to beef up and strengthen the offensive line, makes Davis a quality value at his current ADP of 61 in half-PPR redraft leagues.
As it stands a month away from the start of NFL training camps, the seventh round has a plethora of running backs being valued as RB3s with RB1 upside. Admittedly, it’s scary to draft a rookie player who has not yet earned a starting role in the backfield. However, Michael Carter and Trey Sermon are two running backs that landed in the ideal offensive scheme and situation to return value almost instantly. They each have their own contrasting styles, with Carter relying on lateral agility and explosiveness to overcome his smaller frame, while Sermon has the ridiculous one-cut ability and runs behind his pads, bulldozing defenders with his 6’1, 215-pound frame that he displayed while playing in two separate Power 5 conferences during his collegiate career. The Jets will deploy a zone-blocking scheme under new OC Mike LaFleur and head coach Robert Saleh, which accommodates the explosive patience Carter possesses. Ironically, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is the league’s current mastermind of the motion-heavy, run-centric West Coast offense that his father Mike Shanahan ushered into the league a couple of decades ago. Veteran players such as Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert do present impediments to rostering these rookies, which is why they are dropping to the seventh round in half-PPR redraft leagues. The good news is that the 49ers ranked sixth-highest in running back targetshare percentage in 2020, which bodes well for Sermon’s involvement within a fully healthy and retooled offense in the Bay Area. Since the Jets’ offense will be very similar, Carter could quickly evolve into the team’s featured passing-back and could see 10-15 carries behind Coleman to carry low-to-mid-range RB2 production. This is exactly what Zero RB strategists should be seeking in the middle rounds of drafts. Running backs with proven receiving ability in offenses designed to heavily utilize their backfield in all down and distance scenarios.
