11 Interesting Advanced Fantasy Metric Stats For Week 11

Advanced Fantasy Metrics

This article will tell you about 11 must-read advanced stats you should know about as we approach Sunday’s Week 11 slate of NFL action. The advanced metrics that FantasyData provides our subscribers are not the end all be all. They are very useful at helping you better understand matchups and make the best possible lineup decision.

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The Target Separation of the Panthers’ Wide Receivers (1.64)

The Panthers wide receivers are creating an average of 1.64 yards per target for quarterback Kyle Allen. This ranks 15th in the NFL. Allen has a number of receiving weapons to leverage in an excellent matchup against the Falcons this week including D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, Greg Olsen, and of course Christian McCaffrey. He completed 28 of 43 passes for 307 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in the Panthers loss to the Packers last week. Allen could replicate this performance at home against the Falcons. Atlanta’s defense has allowed 34.4 pass attempts, 24.6 completions, 300.6 passing yards, 2.4 touchdowns, and 27.55 fantasy points per game to starting quarterbacks over its last five games. Allen can provide fantasy players with a QB1 ceiling against the Falcons in Week 11.

Jameis Winston’s Deep Ball Passing Attempts (61)

Jameis Winston.jpg Winston ranks first in this advanced metric that tracks pass attempts that travel 20 yards or farther in the air. He also ranks second, behind Dak Prescott, in air yards at the quarterback position. Winston completed 30 of 48 passes for 358 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in the Buccaneers win over the Cardinals last week. He also rushed for 40 yards. The matchup against the Saints’ defense on the surface does not look favorable. New Orlean’s defense has allowed an average of 15.4 fantasy points per game to starting quarterbacks over its last five. Winston was one of the few quarterbacks who performed well against the Saints’ defense over that time frame. He finished that game with 19.5 fantasy points. The Saints’ defense is likely to be without cornerback Marshon Lattimore. He left last week’s game with a hamstring strain and has not practiced all week. This is great news for Winston and wide receiver Mike Evans at home against the Saints in Week 11. He can be viewed as a low-end QB1.

Christian McCaffrey’s Snap Share (97.8%) and Opportunity Share (90.4%)

McCaffrey currently ranks first among running backs in snap share and opportunity share which is the percentage of the total team running back carries plus targets. He’s averaging a ridiculous 27.2 opportunities per game. McCaffrey’s provides fantasy players with the highest floor and ceiling of any running back in Week 11. The Falcons defense has allowed an average of 18 touches, 76 total yards, and one touchdown per game to top running back scorers over the last five games. McCaffrey has a chance to exceed those averages at home against the Falcons.

Tevin Coleman’s Opportunity Share (43%) Does Not Guarantee Workhorse Usage

Coleman’s averaged 15.7 opportunities and 12.3 PPR fantasy points per game this season. Matt Breida left last week’s game against the Seahawks early with an ankle injury. He has been very limited at practice and is likely to miss this week’s game at home against the Cardinals. Breida’s absence benefits Raheem Mostert more than Coleman. He’s averaged 8.5 opportunities per game this season. It would not be surprising if Jeff Wilson sees opportunities as well. No 49ers running back has an opportunity share this season over 24 percent. The Cardinals defense has allowed an average of 29.6 PPR fantasy points per game to running backs over its last five games. This is a scenario multiple backs could thrive in from a fantasy perspective. Coleman can be viewed as a boom or bust RB2 in Week 11.

Gus Edwards’ Juke Rate (32.8%)

Edwards ranks third in Juke Rate behind Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. This metric isolates a running back’s on-field elusiveness and tackle-breaking power by dividing the total number of evaded tackles by the total number of touches. Edwards is a potential lottery ticket at the running back position who is readily available in a high percentage of fantasy football leagues. He also ranks 10th in Yards Created. This metric measures all yards above and beyond what was blocked. Yards created are generated by the runner after the first evaded tackle. The Ravens offense averages 35.8 rushing attempts per game this season. The only other team with a higher per game average is the 49ers (36.7).

Leonard Fournette’s Yards Created (44.1)

Fournette ranks second in yards created behind Dalvin Cook (44.8). He’s averaging 0.70 fantasy points per opportunity. Fournette is playing 62.4 percent of the offensive snaps and is averaging 25 opportunities per game. He’s the RB9 in PPR formats averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game. Fournette has only scored one touchdown this season. Could positive touchdown regression be coming his way? Fournette has a very high ceiling as he looks to bounce back against the Colts coming out the Jaguars bye week.

Josh Jacobs Breakaway Runs (10)

undefined Jacobs ranks fourth in breakaway runs. This metric tracks rushing attempts of 15 or more yards. Jacobs is averaging 21 opportunities per game and 0.80 fantasy points per opportunity. He’s accumulated 436 total yards over the last four games since the Raiders came out of their bye week. Jacobs has a ceiling this week as high as McCaffrey and Cook against the Bengals. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed an average 17 touches and 90.6 total yards to top running back scorers over the last five games. Jacobs has an opportunity to exceed those numbers against a Bengals defense allowing the most yards per game (429.4).

Mike Evans End Zone Targets (14)

Evans leads all wide receivers in end zone targets. He’s averaging 10 targets, six receptions, 102.7 receiving yards, 154.6 air yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game this season. Evans (2.86) ranks seventh in yards per pass route. The Saints defense has allowed an average of 32 PPR fantasy points per game over the last five to wide receivers. Evans and Chris Godwin have an opportunity to finish in the top-10 at their position in Week 11.

Julian Edelman’s Red Zone Targets (18)

Edelman leads all wide receivers in red-zone targets. He also ranks fourth at his position of PPR fantasy points (45.4) accumulated in the red zone. Evans, Tyler Lockett, and Marvin Jones are the only wide receivers ahead of him. Edelman has a WR1 ceiling against the Eagles this week. Philadelphia has allowed an average of seven targets, 4.4 receptions, 86 receiving yards, 0.8 touchdowns, and 18 PPR fantasy points per game to top wide receiver scorers over its last five games. Edelman is averaging 10 targets per game and should be accumulating many yards after the catch dynamo against the Eagles secondary.

D.J. Moore’s Contested Target Success Rate (73.3%)

Moore currently has the fifth-highest contest target success rate among wide receivers. He’s caught 11 of 15 this season. Moore has consecutive 100-yard games and is averaging 10 targets per game over the last four weeks. He has a WR1 ceiling against the Falcons secondary in Week 11.

Jamison Crowder’s True Catch Rate (92.3%)

Crowder ranks fourth in true catch rate. This metric divides total receptions by total catchable targets. The only other wide receivers which a higher rate are DeAndre Hopkins, Godwin, Michael Thomas, and Larry Fitzgerald. Crowder has at least 80 yards and a touchdown in two consecutive games. His rapport with quarterback Sam Darnold is undeniable and will be on full display against his old team the Redskins in Week 11.

Conclusion

FantasyData has a wealth of statistical information available to you at your fingertips. Do you ever wonder how to weave all of the information together in order to make informed decisions for your fantasy football team? That’s the purpose behind the Advanced Metrics series that Jody Smith and I are writing this season. One way to approach any decision in fantasy football is to analyze two things. The first one revolves around the narrative. What are NFL Insiders, beat writers, and coaches saying. The second one revolves around the statistics, metrics, and other data. Take a moment to think of a piano. You can play music with one hand, but once you use both hands the music is even better. You should have the same mindset when it comes to managing your fantasy football team.

Please read my Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em column to help get ready for Week 11. If you have additional questions you can also refer to my fantasy football rankings or better yet reach out to me on Twitter for an immediate response (@EricNMoody). Thanks for reading and please sign up for FantasyData Premium.