2023 NFL Rookie of the Year Odds and Predictions

NFL Rookie of the Year Odds

With the 2023 NFL Draft behind us, there is no better time to make some Rookie of the Year bets. Most all impact-free agents are signed at this point in the off-season. There are a few moves that could happen to alter these Rookie of the Year odds prior to training camp. 

Last year’s rookie class was a bit underwhelming when it came to skill position players. Kenny Pickett was the lone first-round quarterback and the only one selected in the first two rounds. It was a very weak quarterback class that didn’t have a single week 1 starter. Desmond Ridder was the second quarterback off the board in the third round, and he didn’t see the field until week 15. This opened the door for the six wide receivers who were selected in the first round. Garrett Wilson being the one to take home OROY honors. He just edged out Kenneth Walker II for the award, who also had a remarkable rookie season.

Not many would consider Rookie of the Year to be a “quarterback award” quite like MVP, but we do see it quite often. Garrett Wilson and Ja’Marr Chase gave the wide receiver position OROY honors the past two seasons. This was the first time since 1984-85 that wide receivers went back to back. 

History of Winners

2023 Rookie of the Year Odds

• Bijan Robinson +250
• Bryce Young +450
• C.J. Stroud +650
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba +800
• Anthony Richardson +900
• Jahmyr Gibbs +900
• Jordan Addison +1700
• Zay Flowers +1800
• Quentin Johnston +2500
• Zach Charbonnet +2500
• Will Levis +2500
• Josh Downs +2800
• Jalin Hyatt  +2800
• Hendon Hooker +3000
• Tank Bigsby +3500
• Jonathan Mingo +5000
• Kayshon Boutte +10000
• Zach Evans +10000

Predictions

QB Anthony Richardson (IND) +900, Caesars 

There’s no denying that Anthony Richardson has the most upside of any quarterback in the 2023 class. From the highlight reels all season long to the numbers he posted at the NFL Combine, there’s a lot to be excited about. Throughout the pre-draft process, Richardson was never linked to one specific team. It wasn’t a shocker by any means that he landed with the Colts with the fourth pick, but they were a team that was tied to Will Levis as well. There has already been talks of Richardson splitting first team reps with Gardner Minshew. However, the Colts didn’t select him with the fourth pick to take a back seat to Minshew. This will only help the odds we see early on.

Caesars Sportsbook currently offers the best odds for Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +900. This number is quite a bit longer than the two quarterbacks that were selected ahead of him (Bryce Young +450, CJ Stroud +650). Richardson’s ability to make plays with his legs is what could ultimately push him past both Young and Stroud. He’s such an elite athlete at the position and has drawn plenty of comparisons to the 2011 OROY, Cam Newton. Now we shouldn’t expect that Richardson will rush for 14 touchdowns like Newton did his rookie year. However, he is the only quarterback in this draft class who offers this type of ceiling. For a true pocket passer to win the award, it typically takes an extremely efficient season. 

Richardson walks into the most appealing landing spot of all rookie quarterbacks. The Colts offensive line ranked inside PFF’s top 20 units by season’s end and will be returning all five starters. He’ll also team up with Jonathan Taylor who should be back at full-strength after dealing with an ankle injury for a majority of the season. The Colts also have a young wide receiver room, led by Michael Pittman Jr who has been no worse than WR20 over the past two seasons. Alec Pierce is coming off of a solid rookie campaign and they also spend a 3rd round pick on Josh Downs who will work out of the slot.

FantasyData currently projects Richardson to finish as the QB18 with the fourth most rush yards amongst quarterbacks (721.6).

WR Quentin Johnston (LAC) +2500, FanDuel

Lets forget the fact that wide receivers have never gone three straight years winning OROY. The position has more value than ever, as the market continues to reset itself. We’ve seen teams prioritize the wide receiver position in the NFL Draft. This year, the Seattle Seahawks started a run of four straight wide receivers by selecting Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th overall pick. The Chargers followed suit shortly after by selecting Quentin Johnston over the likes of Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison. Johnston played a big role in TCU’s National Championship run. He has the build of a true WR1 and is able to make plays after the catch, which is rare for his size. 

It’s easy to look at the Chargers’ wide receiver depth chart and have doubts about Quentin Johnston’s role. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are one of the best wide receiver duos in the league, but have both had a difficult time staying on the field. Allen is on the wrong side of 30 and coming off of an injury-plagued season, appearing in just 10 games. It was the same story for Mike Williams, who dealt with a handful of injuries during the middle of the season. The Chargers also restructured the contracts of both receivers back in March. Considering they also prioritized the position with their first pick goes to show we should not have all that much doubt. 

Johnston falls into a favorable spot, even when comparing the situation of other wide receivers who were selected on day one. He finds himself on a Chargers offense who threw the ball 711 times, which was the second most in the league to the Buccaneers (751). They also passed the ball 68% of the time, which was the third-highest rate. Volume should be there for Johnston on a pass-heavy team who has a need for another wide receiver on the outside. He is currently projected for 52-722-4 with both Allen and Williams projected to play all 17 games. 

There are a few places that have Johnston’s odds to win OROY at +2500, with FanDuel being one of them. The same number can be found at Caesars, where four wide receivers have better odds to win the award than Johnston. This includes the three other first round wide receivers along with Chiefs 2nd round pick, Rashee Rice (+2200). Getting Johnston at +2500 is great value and it’s hard to imagine a better number becoming available.

Longshot Pick for Rookie of the Year

WR Jonathan Mingo (CAR) +5000 DraftKings

After the big four wide receivers were selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Jonathan Mingo was the first to go on day two. The Carolina Panthers selected Mingo with the 39th overall pick to pair him with fellow rookie QB, Bryce Young. An active offseason which included the blockbuster trade to move up and select Young left the Panthers wide receiver room in shambles. This trade included DJ Moore, who was then replaced with veteran wide receivers Adam Thielen, and DJ Chark during free agency. Thielen is coming off of what was one of his most unproductive seasons in quite some time and isn’t getting any younger. Chark had some success in Detroit on a one-year deal but hit the IR early on.

Mingo will have an opportunity to carve out a role in this new-look offense. He has a legit chance to lead the Panthers in targets this season which not a whole lot of other rookie wide receivers can say. The current projections on FantasyData have the trio bunched up together, all-seeing 75+ targets. Mingo‘s role alone is worth a dart throw at +5000 to be the OROY.