Derek Carr Fantasy: Raiders QB Entering Make-or-Break 2020

Derek Carr: A Painfully Average Passer

For the last half-decade, Raiders QB Derek Carr has been one of the most consistent fantasy contributors at his position, finishing as a top-20 player at the position in all six years of his career. Say what you will about his limited upside, but Carr’s ability to string together viable fantasy campaigns has been unparalleled. Although he’s yet to crack the top-10 during this stretch, the Raiders have remained committed to Carr as their starter due to his reliability, as the former Fresno State star has managed to complete at least 68% of his passes in each of the last two seasons. Without the luxury of having a legitimate WR1, Carr managed to produce a historically efficient campaign last season, though many have overlooked this.

Only TWO QBs in NFL history have posted a season of 70% completion percentage, 4,000 yards and less than 10 INT:

‣ Derek Carr in 2019
‣ Drew Brees in 2017#RaiderNation ☠ pic.twitter.com/WVU0ERj9lO

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) July 2, 2020

Unfortunately for Carr, ‘good enough’ is no longer the baseline for a franchise quarterback. Prior to the 2019 NFL Draft, it was rumored that the former Pro Bowler’s job was in jeopardy, as the Raiders were reportedly enamored with then-Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray, the eventual first overall pick of the draft. While the team failed to bring in a viable contingency plan last season, the decision to make former Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota the highest-paid backup quarterback in the league speaks volumes to the temperature of Carr’s seat at the top of the depth chart. 

As we saw with Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton in the past couple of seasons, past performance means nothing if you cannot lead a playoff-ready team to any postseason success. Carr has failed to elevate the Raiders to the level of contending, with the team’s only postseason appearance from this decade coming during Carr’s breakout 2016 season, which culminated with the Raiders losing in round one of the playoffs to the Brock Osweiler-led Houston Texans in a game where Carr was unavailable due to injury. With an excellent cast of players on both sides of the ball, it would appear as though this is Carr’s final chance to bring his hometown team to the playoffs. That is of course if he can manage to hold onto the starting gig for the full season. While Mariota was dishonorably discharged from his previous starting role with the Titans in favor of another former lame-duck starter (Ryan Tannehill), the 26-year-old former number two overall pick still possesses vast amounts of upside if he can manage to stay healthy. Should Carr fail to deliver, Mariota is quite capable of usurping the throne and running the Raiders offense effectively. 

How Carr Can Redeem Himself

It’s fair to say that Carr overachieved last season, throwing for over 4,000 yards for the second straight season despite working with a motley crew of pass-catchers that included Antonio Brown (for a few practices at least), 2019 fifth-round pick Hunter Renfrow (possibly the most stereotypical slot receiver of all time), former Chargers depth piece Tyrell Williams, and WR-turned-TE Darren Waller (a player whose most notable accomplishment prior to the season had been getting suspended for violating the league’s drug policy). Although the Raiders did manage to find a true workhorse back (2019 first-round pick Josh Jacobs), the rest of the team’s playmakers left little to be desired. While Williams, Renfrow, and Waller all managed to exceed expectations (Waller particularly), it was clear that GM Mike Mayock’s primary goal for this offseason was to overhaul the receiving core this offseason, a need that the team addressed through the draft with the selection of Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, and WR/RB/QB hybrid Lynn Bowden, three players who could all take on significant roles in the offense. Not to be forgotten, Las Vegas also made the underrated move to sign tight end Jason Witten, a living legend who finished as the TE11 in PPR formats last season. Witten is a terrific blocker who remains a viable pass-catcher even at his age and he could allow the team to experiment by playing more two-tight end sets. While these moves aren’t the most glamorous, Las Vegas’s offense should be much improved from last season. 

The additions of Ruggs and Edwards are particularly interesting, as both players displayed a proficiency on deep throws during their college days, an area of the field that Carr has struggled throwing to. Carr, who has become notorious for his checkdown tendencies (he ‘checked down’ on 10.3% of his 1,113 passing attempts in the last two seasons), may very well reshape his playstyle with the addition of deep threats like Edwards and Ruggs. With an offensive line that graded out as the 15th best unit in the league last season and a second-year running back who should take on a much larger role in the offense (Jacobs), the Raiders have finally built the foundation that Carr has so desperately needed in order to maximize his talent. As long as the team’s defense can avoid being a punching bag for the rest of the AFC West, there should be no excuses for Carr to not lead this team to a playoff berth while also producing well for fantasy purposes.