Fantasy Baseball Trade Targets For Week 9
Week 9 is here, and with it comes more opportunities on the trade market. With May almost over, it’s hard to believe that one-third of the season has already passed. Matt Olson was featured as a buy-low candidate in last week’s article, and he followed it up by hitting three home runs in what was his best week of the season. It’s not too late for players to turn their seasons around, so here are five more players you should be looking to trade for or trade away.
Buy-Low Candidates
Pablo Lopez, SP, Twins
Pablo Lopez had a very rough week, getting destroyed in back-to-back starts by the Nationals and Rangers. He has given up 13 runs in his last 9.2 innings pitched, and even in the start before that, he gave up 3 runs on 10 hits against the Yankees. His season ERA now sits at an unsightly 5.25, and fantasy managers are growing justifiably frustrated with the supposed ace. It especially hurts in this current pitching environment where there are so many pitchers putting up career-best numbers out of nowhere. It’s tough to stomach an ERA over 5 from a consensus top-10 overall starting pitching when guys like Ranger Suarez, Seth Lugo, and Javier Assad are somehow looking unhittable. However, now is a good time to use that frustration to acquire Lopez at the lowest price he’ll be all season long. He has been a streaky pitcher in the past and has always been prone to more blowup outings than a typical ace. On the season, he still had four starts where he allowed one run or less, and seven starts where he has allowed 3 runs or less. He has also struck out at least 7 batters in over half of his starts. Most importantly, he seems to be getting unlucky, as his 3.05 xFIP is far better than his 5.25 ERA. He will get hit hard at times, but he has enough of a track record to trust that he will bounce back and stick it out as a top-15 starting pitcher for fantasy.
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals
Vinnie Pasquantino has fallen into a bit of a slump at the plate, bringing his slash line to an uninspiring .225/.310/.393 with 25 runs, 5 home runs, and 32 runs batted in. However, he is one of the few hitters who still has a huge disparity between his actual stats and expected stats. His .278 xBA and .501 xSLG are both well above average, placing in the 80th and 86th percentiles, respectively. He’s also hitting the ball harder than ever with a 91.8 mph average exit velocity and has been maintaining his elite plate discipline with a 14.5% whiff rate and 12.6% strikeout rate that place him in the top 5 percent of the league. All signs are pointing towards a breakout season, but his actual production is lagging behind. Trade for him now while that is still the case because I expect a big summer from Pasquantino.
Seiya Suzuki, OF, Cubs
Seiya Suzuki hasn’t been able to get in a groove after returning from an oblique strain on May 11th. He is batting just .185 with 2 extra-base hits since then, but now isn’t the time to give up on him. He looked amazing pre-injury and is still underperforming his expected stats for the season. His .471 xSLG is much better than his actual SLG of .398, and he has still crushed the ball overall to the tune of a 92 mph average exit velocity (88th percentile) and 51.9% hard-hit rate (93rd percentile). His main problem seems to be plate discipline this season, as his 24.6% strikeout rate, 26.6% whiff rate, and 6.6% walk rate all represent a decline from 2023. This makes me feel better about his long-term outlook, as I would be much more concerned if his power output declined following an oblique injury. The increased swing-and-miss could just be a case of him being a bit rusty at the plate, and I fully expect him to get back to the player he was late in 2023 and the first couple of weeks of 2024. I still view him as a top-25 outfielder in all formats, and now is a great opportunity to acquire him for less than that.
Sell-High Candidates
Luis Gil, SP, Yankees
Luis Gil has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball in May, going 6 or more innings with no more than 1 earned run allowed in all five of his starts this month. His most impressive performance by far was on May 18th against the White Sox when he struck out 14 batters. His 31.7% strikeout rate ranks in the 91st percentile and his 29.2% hard-hit rate is in the 94th percentile, and his 2.78 xERA and .180 xBA show that this isn’t some fluke. However, the concern is how long he can keep this up. His career high in innings came in 2021 when he tossed 108.2 of them, before needing Tommy John surgery that limited him to just 25.2 innings in 2022 and 4 innings in 2023. The return of Gerrit Cole will likely force the Yankees into a 6 man rotation anyway, leaving plenty of opportunities to skip some of Gil’s starts down the stretch or completely shut him down before the season’s end. Now is a great time to trade him away at top-30 SP value for someone who can help your team for the entirety of the year.
Matt Chapman, 3B, Giants
Matt Chapman has been one of the hottest hitters over the past couple of weeks, and he peaked during a 3-game series in Pittsburgh where he homered in every game. Since May 11th, he is batting .339 with 16 R, 4 HR, and 13 RBI in 14 games. While there’s nothing wrong with enjoying his hot streak, it would be a mistake to assume he can keep this up. Most of his production has come from his lofty counting stats over this span, and the Giants aren’t exactly the most high-octane offense to expect him to keep scoring and driving in so many runs. He still has great power, which is evident from his 92.2 mph average exit velocity, 10.9% barrel rate, and 46.3% hard-hit rate, but those are all worse numbers than he put up in 2023 where he wasn’t very valuable in fantasy. He still strikes out a lot and he’s bound to cool off soon, so now is the time to trade him if you get the opportunity.
