Deep Sleepers to Target in the Final Rounds
Plenty of people remain uncertain as to how the 2020 NFL season will play out but looking forward to another fantasy football season is what a lot of us are doing to keep a positive outlook and have something to look forward to. In this strange world of isolation and negativity, we march forward with draft prep, research, and analysis in the hopes of being able to have something to look forward to soon.
Part of the annual fantasy preparation involves plenty of mock drafting and roster building. By studying average draft position (ADP), which can help us recognize tiers and identify undervalued players. These sleepers often are the most popular topics for the well-prepared fantasy fan and can make all the difference between a competitive roster and a championship-contending squad.
2020 may have had its share of calamities but the grunt work for another season of pigskin is well underway. That includes looking at those late-round sleeper candidates that can help solidify rosters and offer that all-important upside. Many of these players are going undrafted, which makes them even more appealing as late-round fliers. Here are some of those deep sleeper candidates to consider this summer.
10. Boston Scott (RB) Philadelphia Eagles – Recently on the On The Clock Podcast I mentioned that I was worried that Miles Sanders offered little value because he is already being drafted at his peak ADP. Sanders is a phenomenal talent but Doug Pederson has a well-established history of employing multiple backs into his system. This was on display as recently as last season as Scott excelled as Philadelphia’s satellite back after Darren Sproles was injured. Scott played over half of the Eagles’ snaps down the stretch and fared extremely well in Fantasy Data’s Advanced Efficiency Metrics, putting up and impressive 1.11 fantasy points per opportunity. That figured ranked fifth among all running backs- one spot ahead of Christian McCaffrey. Scott is an excellent pass-catcher and more than capable of returning weekly RB3 value with 10-12 touches per game.
9. Justin Jackson (RB) Los Angeles Chargers – With Melvin Gordon‘s departure, the Chargers now have 17 touches per game to divide up in their new backfield. Austin Ekeler will likely command a significant share of those but it remains to be seen how efficient Ekeler will be with an expanded workload. Most likely, Anthony Lynn will take a similar approach, which will leave 15 or more touches per week up for grabs between Jackson and fourth-round rookie Joshua Kelley. Jackson already has two years’ experience under his belt and has averaged a healthy 5.1 yards per carry in the pros. Meanwhile, Kelley could struggle to carve out any role without the benefit of OTAs and an abbreviated preseason slate. Jackson is also a solid receiver who has nabbed 24-of-30 career targets. With double-digit targets, Jackson can put up usable weekly fantasy production and is a solid hand-cuff for Ekeler owners.
8. Reggie Bonnafon (RB) Carolina Panthers – Christian McCaffrey is the no-bout 1.01 of any league this summer and has been remarkably durable for an elite athlete with such a heavy workload. But the history of running backs coming off of 400-touch season is alarming and new head coach Matt Rhule may choose to scale back CMCs touches a tad to protect the league’s best dual-threat running back. Bonnafon only got 69 snaps last season but did manage to average an impressive 7.3 yards per carry and snag 6-of-9 targets. Rhule didn’t add any real competition, so Bonnafon should open 2020 as McCaffrey’s direct backup, and that certainly makes him fantasy-relevant. If McCaffrey were to go down, Bonnafon would immediately be in the RB2 conversation. That makes the sophomore rusher a must-have hand-cuff for McCaffrey owners in deeper leagues.
7. Ty Montgomery (RB) New Orleans Saints – Few coaches are as adept at putting their players into favorable positions than Sean Payton, who has coaxed solid fantasy performances out of players like Aaron Stecker, Mike Bell, Tim Hightower, and even QB Taysom Hill. Payton brought in Emmanuel Sanders to replace Ted Ginn, but the Saints don’t have a lot of other prove pass-catching weapons at WR3 or tight end. Montgomery is an excellent receiver and also offers the versatility to be an effective runner. That kind of flexibility has always appealed to Payton and the door is wide open for Montgomery to lock up the Saints’ RB3 job while also contending for weekly snaps at WR3/4 and as a short-yardage option. Practically free in most fantasy drafts, Montgomery is worth a look as a final-round selection in PPR formats.
5. Chris Conley (WR) Jacksonville Jaguars – Conley very quietly put up a solid 47/775/5 campaign in 2019 on a very healthy 90 targets. Those figures were good enough for a WR43 finish in PPR leagues, which made Conley a solid WR4/FLEX option, yet the 27-year-old veteran is being completely ignored in early fantasy drafts. Yes, second-round WR Laviska Shenault could factor in, but it will be hard for the rookie to unseat Conley with little or not offseason program. Conley also averaged 16.5 yards per catch and 11.6 air yards per target, which tied A.J. Brown for 15th in the league. There’s a better-than-average chance that Conley again sees 5-plus targets per week, which makes him an extremely overlooked value to consider in the closing rounds.
4. Steven Sims (WR) Washington – Sims was a huge waiver wire addition down the stretch last season, catching 20-of-36 targets from Weeks 14-17, during the fantasy playoffs. Sims turned those 20 grabs into 240 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for an overall WR11 finish during the span when he was needed the most. While Washington will be implementing an entirely new offense and staff, Sims is considered the overwhelming favorite to open the 2020 season as the club’s slot receiver. With his lowly ADP, Sims offers nothing but upside and could contend for 75-plus targets.
3. Russell Gage (WR) Atlanta Falcons – Another overlooked slot receiver, Gage took over that job after Mohamed Sanu was traded to New England and thrived. Gage quietly snagged 45 receptions in Atlanta’s final nine games, including 5-plus grabs in five of the club’s final six. With TE Austin Hooper now in Cleveland, even more, opportunities could be available in the middle of the field for Gage to sit and rack up targets against a defense preoccupied with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.
2. Chris Herndon (TE) New York Jets – After a suspension and rib injury, Herndon was limited to just one catch in 2019 but the third-year tight end flashed solid chemistry with QB Sam Darnold in 2018. During his rookie campaign, Herndon hauled in 39 receptions for 502 yards and four scores en route to a TE16 finish in PPR formats. After disappearing in Year Two, Herndon has been forgotten by a large portion of the casual fantasy community, which makes him an outstanding sleeper target for the high number of fantasy footballers who will bypass early tight ends and choose to go to war with a committee approach.
1. Jace Sternberger (TE) Green Bay Packers – It’s standard procedure for rookie tight ends to struggle right out of the gate, but with Jimmy Graham now in Chicago, Sternberger is set to open his sophomore campaign as Green Bay’s starting tight end. The Packers’ lack of receiver depth actually works in favor of Sternberger, who could really carve out a role as an athletic downfield weapon. At Texas A&M, Sternberger thrived as an efficient red-zone weapon. During his final year with the Aggies, Sternberger snagged 10 touchdowns and posted a 94.1% on-target catch rate, which ranked 6th in the nation among ALL receivers, including wide receivers. He also showcased outstanding downfield ability by averaging 17.3 yards per catch and was top-25 in the NCAA in broken tackles (12) and yards after contact (215). If Sternberger can harness that athleticism into a role for a receiver-needy Packers squad, he’s got TE1 upside in 2020.
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