Super Charged Offense
Over the last three years, Philip Rivers has done his best Thor impression laying waste to NFL scoreboards with his precision lightning strikes. Since the first snap of the 2016 season, the Chargers have quietly been an upper echelon passing offense finishing in the top 10 in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and net yards gained per passing attempt in each season.
| Year | Passing Yards (Rank) | Passing Touchdowns (Rank) | Net Yards Gained / Pass Attempt (Rank) |
| 2016 | 4,198 (8th) | 33 (4th) | 6.8 (7th) |
| 2017 | 4,431 (1st) | 28 (6th) | 7.4 (2nd) |
| 2018 | 4,089 (10th) | 32 (8th) | 7.5 (5th) |
(per Pro Football Reference)
Keenan Allen has been the thunder to Rivers lightning the Mjolnir to Rivers aerial heroics. Allen capped yet another elite season in 2018 as one of only four wide receivers (also DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, and Michael Thomas) to finish the year with 90 or more receptions, 1,150 or more receiving yards, and a 70 percent or better catch rate. Despite yet another year with stellar production Allen is rarely if ever mentioned amongst this elite tier of wide receivers.
Keenan Allen warm ADP blanket
Keenan Allen has been selected as a top 12 wide receiver in each of the last two years. Allen was drafted as WR12 in 2017 (ADP 3.02, 12 team PPR per Fantasy Football Calculator) and WR6 in 2018 (ADP 2.05, 12 team PPR per Fantasy Football Calculator). Currently, at the time of writing this article, Allen is being drafted as the WR11 (2.12) in 12 team PPR leagues. Even at that draft position, Allen is a great value for the safety he presents.
| Year | Average Draft Position (ADP) 12 team PPR | Fantasy ppg Rank among WR (PPR scoring) |
| 2018 | WR6 | WR12 |
| 2017 | WR12 | WR4 |
| 2015*** | WR23 | WR6 |
***2015 Injury-shortened season-8 games***
In each of the last three seasons where Allen has played at least eight games, on a fantasy points-per-game basis, he has either outplayed his ADP or met expectation as a top 12 wide receiver. The old adage is that fantasy football leagues are not won during the draft process. Leagues can, however, be lost in the first few rounds of a draft. In the first two rounds, the name of the game is safety as well as securing high-end production. Allen has proven that he can provide both of those elements. From 2015-2018 (39 games) Allen has been a top ten wide receiver 33 percent of the time (13 games). Of those top ten finishes, Allen has reached top five scoring status in 61.5 percent (8 games) of them. Allen’s ceiling performances are many times week winning scoring outputs.
Keenan Allen Fantasy 2019 Outlook
In 2019 the Chargers skill positions will be stacked to the brim like a Rivers family Christmas card. On the surface Keenan Allen looks to have a lot of competition for targets with Mike Williams entering his third season, Hunter Henry returning from injury, and the involvement of the running backs in the passing game. Despite this bevy of weapons at Rivers disposal his eyes have always remained fixated on Allen. In 24 games with Mike Williams on the field, Allen has only seen a marginal difference in his targets dipping from 10.88 per game (174 full season pace) to nine per game (144 full season pace). When Allen has played with Henry his targets have remained nearly identical with 9.62 per game (with Henry) to 9.37 per game (without Henry). Last season the Chargers running backs garnered their largest target share in the last three seasons at 27.3 percent (22.6 percent in 2017, 18.1 percent in 2016). The running backs increased pass game usage can be directly tied to the lack of talented options at the tight end position last year with Henry’s season-ending injury. After Henry went down the Chargers were left trotting out the corpse of Antonio Gates, former hype piece Virgil Green, and depth chart filler Sean Culkin on a weekly basis.
Despite the rotating cast of characters around him over the last four seasons Allen has commanded between a 25.5 to 27.9 percent target share as the firmly established alpha dog. With Tyrell Williams out the door and Antonio Gates not likely to return 110 targets are left up for grabs. That vacated volume can be dispersed between the emerging Mike Williams and mended Hunter Henry. With young weapons returning and others gaining another year of experience the stage is set for the Chargers to gravitate back to the pass more often in 2019. Last season, Rivers attempted his fewest passes (508) since 2009 when he only threw the football 486 times. Look for the Chargers to bounce back to 570-578 pass attempt range that the offense has operated in three of the last four seasons. This year Keenan Allen will again be one of the best picks in the second round of drafts.
