San Francisco 49ers (5-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (2-4)
- Spread: San Francisco 49ers -6.5
- Over/ Under: 43
Breakdown
The 49ers are dealing with injuries to many of their star players for this Monday Night Football matchup. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel has a hairline fracture and will miss this game, left tackle Trent Williams has a sprained ankle and is also doubtful to miss this contest. Christian McCaffrey has an oblique injury that caused him to exit the game last week but is questionable to play in this game. McCaffrey has been dominant to start the season, rushing for 553 yards and 7 touchdowns. McCaffrey has also added 177 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns this season. He has carried the offense thus far and he would be a massive hit to the offense if he were to miss this game. This 49ers offense is so deep, that Brock Purdy will still have a couple of game-changers to throw the ball to. Brandon Aiyuk has had a few quiet weeks but should see plenty of opportunity, especially if Deebo misses more games. Aiyuk has not scored since week 1 but has seen 6 or more targets every game he has played in. Kittle has been hit-or-miss throughout the first few weeks but he does so much for this 49ers offense. In week 5, Kittle recorded 3 touchdowns, his only scores this season. He has the ability to go off any game and the Vikings defense has been in the middle of the pack at defending tight ends.
The Vikings have not gotten off to the start that they wanted and it does not get any easier matching up with the 5-1 49ers. Especially with elite wide receiver Justin Jefferson missing this game while he is on the IR. Jefferson started this season on fire, going for over 80 yards in each of the first 4 weeks (injured in week 5). With Jefferson missing time, Kirk Cousins is going to need the other weapons to take a big step forward. Cousins has been very good to start the year, passing for 1,679 yards, 14 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions. Alexander Mattison finally has the backfield to himself and should continue to see the bulk of the carries. T.J. Hockenson is one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the league and Cousins targets him at a very high rate, Hockenson has 8 or more targets in all but 1 game this season. Rookie receiver Jordan Addison has been good to start the season and could be Kirk’s go-to weapon in the passing game. Addison has 277 yards and 4 touchdowns this season.
Keys to Victory
San Francisco 49ers: Don’t get away from playing their brand of football. Let me explain, even with the injuries they have going into this game, they can’t change the offense. The 49ers have had one of the best offensives and need the guys who are stepping in to be up to the challenge. With Deebo out of this game, Aiyuk will need to lead the receiving room, but Jauan Jennings could also see an uptick in snaps and targets. Stick with the run game, even if it’s Jordan Mason or Elijah Mitchell. Pick and choose the time to take shots down the field. Purdy is a smart quarterback who doesn’t turn the ball over often.
Minnesota Vikings: Run game. The Vikings running backs need to be involved and effective. Easier said than done against a very good defense, but Kirk is not going to be able to carry the offense strictly with the pass game. Mattison and Cam Akers need to be able to get those short-yardage third downs to move the chains.
Prop Bet Pick
T.J. Hockenson Over 5.5 Receptions (-113)
The Vikings will have to throw to compete in this game and like I said earlier, Hockenson has had 8 more targets in all but 1 game this season. He has also had 6 or more receptions in 4 of the 6 games. With Jefferson missing this game, Cousins will have to throw to his next best target and with how good the 9ers defense is, getting the ball out quickly usually results in targets to the tight end.
DFS Picks
49ers Offense: Jordan Mason. Mason seems to be the primary backup if McCaffrey were to miss this game. Elijah Mitchell will also be involved but he is just returning from injury so he could be in a more limited role. Mason will see snaps even with McCaffrey playing with how effective the 9ers run scheme is. A cheaper option would be Ray-Ray McCloud. McCloud saw his snaps go up with the injury to Deebo Samuel last week. He is a gadget player who could have designed run plays called for him.
Vikings Offense: Jordan Addison. A more expensive pick but the Vikings don’t have many cheaper players that I think are worth it. Addison has 4 touchdowns already and is still just a rookie. He is very talented and could definitely be Cousins number 1 target in the offense with Jefferson on IR
