NFL Draftkings Picks: Week 4
NFL Draftkings Picks
Last was almost a repeat of the week before. It started with low scoring and injuries but was yet again salvaged by some good scoring in the late games. There were several disappointing performances last week including down games for both Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson, who we pegged as studs to pay up for. Each week Fantasy Data will bring you 20 players that we like for the Draftkings Sunday main slate. Let us get right to it.
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Studs to Splurge For
Here we will highlight two players at each position that are in the top-five of their respective position and are deemed worthy of “paying up” for in your lineup. Please note these players will likely be highly owned so if you are looking to differentiate, you will want to pull more players from the next two sections.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen | $8000 | 18.1% | HOU @ BUF
The demise of Josh Allen was short-lived. A lot of people had written him off after two sub-par performances to start the season. Allen responded with 40.22 DK points against a solid front four on the Washington Football Team roster. On deck for the Buffalo Bills are the Houston Texans, who allow the 28th most points to the position. The scary part about Allen’s numbers in Week 3 was that Stefon Diggs only put up 62 yards and zero touchdowns. Look for the duo to hook up more this week and expect another solid performance from the athletic quarterback.
Russell Wilson | $7100 | 2.9% | SEA @ SF
We mentioned in the open that Russell Wilson was a letdown last week scoring just 16.62 DK points. The good news is that the performance dropped his salary $500 down to $7100. A matchup against the division rival San Francisco 49ers seems a bit difficult, but this game has one of the highest totals of the weekend at 52. Despite the disappointing performance in Week 3, Wilson is still averaging 23.3 DK points per game. Hitting that total this week will pay off his lower-than-usual salary.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry | $8800 | 0.8% | TEN @ NYJ
After a poor performance in Week 1, Derrick Henry seems to be back on track. Since the 10.7 point output that week against the Arizona Cardinals, the bruising back has put up back-to-back 100-yard rushing games with 50.7 and 22.4 DK points respectively in the weeks that followed. The receiving corps is riddled with injuries. Up next is a date with the New York Jets who likely will not keep the game very close. Look for the Tennessee Titans to ride Henry early and often en route to an easy win. The Jets rank 25th against the running back position to boot. Henry is a solid play in Week 4.
Alvin Kamara | $8400 | 29.7% | NYG @ NO
Alvin Kamara has had a so-so start to the season thus far averaging just 15.3 DK points per game. The versatile running back is in a get-right spot against a New York Giants team that is 0-3. The Giants are also 31st against the position in terms of DK ranks. Cordarrelle Patterson just put up 16.2 DK points against this defense. Imagine what a player like Kamara can do to them. Tony Jones Jr. only has 19 touches on the season so the backfield belongs solely to Kamara. Look for him to be used exclusively against a bad Giants team in Week 4.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams | $7900 | 58.7% | PIT @ GB
What is there to say about Davnate Adams except for WOW. Sunday night we saw just how to dominate of a player he can be. After a disappointing Week 1, Adams has been unstoppable and has seen 27 targets over his last two games. He turned those targets into 23.1 and 34.2 DK points respectively. Adams is about as consistent and steady of a wideout you can play in DFS. Even on his worst day, you get 10 plus points from him, but you are much more likely to get 20 or more every week. The Steelers defense is not what it once was so the matchup is not much of a concern and the Packers are at home and should thrive in that environment.
Cooper Kupp | $7800 | 13.9% | ARI @ LAR
Speaking of unstoppable wideouts, Cooper Kupp has been on an absolute tear to start the season. The price is too low to ignore here considering Christian McCaffrey was priced in the $9k range the first few weeks of the season and the production was several points off of the pace for Kupp. This game is tied for the highest total of the weekend (54.5) and there is no reason to believe that Kupp will not be heavily involved in the game plan yet again. On the season he is averaging 8.3 receptions on 11 targets and already has five touchdowns in those three games. Find a way to get him in your lineups until the price levels out for the production.
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson | $5800 | NA% | DET @ CHI
Like Russell Wilson, we are going back to the well for a second straight week despite the letdowns. T.J. Hockenson inexplicably saw only two targets in Week 3 after mustering up 20 in the first two weeks of the season. The matchup was a tough one against the Baltimore Ravens, but there is no reason the young tight end should have been thrown to only twice. On deck are the Chicago Bears who have struggled against the position early in the year and gave up a touchdown to Austin Hooper last week. Look for an improved stat line from Hock this week.
Kyle Pitts | $5000 | 0.4% | WAS @ ATL
Kyle Pitts has yet to find pay dirt this season and we were thinking last week would be the one. We are going back to the well here because of the matchup. The Washington Football Team ranks 23rd against the position. Dawson Knox of the Buffalo Bills put up 14.9 DK points against this same defense in Week 3. Vegas must think the game will shoot out somewhat with a projected total of 48 points. Expect Pitts to be a big part of the game plan this Sunday.
Sleepers to Separate From the Pack
Up next we give you some players to help differentiate your lineup from the masses and give you the edge you need to compete in some of the bigger tournaments. Just like the section above, we highlight two players at each position except now instead of studs, you get players that are expected to be less than 10% owned on the main slate.
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold | $6000 | 3.4% | CAR @ DAL
Believe it or not, Sam Darnold has the 10th best point per game DK average (23.7) thus far in 2021. Up next for the Carolina Panthers are the Dallas Cowboys who rank 31st against the quarterback position. The game has a total of 52 and Carolina is projected to score 23.75 of that amount. With no Christian McCaffrey for a few weeks, look for Matt Rhule and the Panthers to open things up a bit in the passing game. This could be the week Robby Anderson comes back to life and if he does, Darnold will obviously be a big reason for that. The salary is lower than that of several players behind him from an average point perspective. Take advantage of the discount.
Kirk Cousins | $6400 | 1.5% | CLE @ MIN
Kirk Cousins just cannot seem to get any respect. So far in 2021, Cousins is the QB5 from a point per game perspective (26.1) yet he has the 12th highest salary. The Cleveland Browns are a middle-of-the-road defense against the position (16th) but a big reason for that was the poor performance by Justin Fields last week. Tyrod Taylor was picking apart this defense before getting injured in Week 2. Cousins and his trio of receiving stars should find plenty of success in Week 4 and value is easily met and exceeded for the Vikings signal-caller.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor | $6300 | 6.5% | IND @ MIA
Jonathan Taylor was another letdown last week. Nyheim Hines inexplicably got the goal-line work in Week 3. Taylor is at a season-low $6300 after starting Week 1 at $8k. On tap is a matchup with a Miami Dolphins who cannot stop the run. Peyton Barber ran 111 yards on 23 carries against them in Week 3. Yes, that Peyton Barber. Look for the second-year back to rebound in a get-right spot in Week 4.
Zach Moss | $5300 | 0.0% | HOU @ BUF
After being a surprise inactive in Week 1, Zach Moss has responded with back-to-back solid performances and looks like a man possessed on the field. The past weeks have seen him go for 16.4 points against the Miami Dolphins in Week 2 and 18.1 points in Week 3 against a good Washington Football Team front four. The Texans his next opponent and the Buffalo Bills will likely get out to an early lead at home and coast to victory on the ground with Zach Moss. Devin Singletary has out-touched Moss, but the latter has been the more productive of late.
Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham Jr. | $5800 | 5.1% | CLE @ MIN
In his first game action of 2021, Odell Beckham Jr. saw nine targets against the Chicago Bears in Week 3. Jarvis Landry is on injured reserve, so expect the volume to continue in the near future. A shootout is likely in Week 4 against the Minnesota Vikings in a game that carries a total of 51.5. The Vikings are ranked 29th against the position in DK and Beckham should have no trouble getting open against Patrick Peterson. For the season, Peterson is giving up 2.41 fantasy points per target. This is the seventh-worst in the league (data courtesy of 4for4.com). Look for the former New York Giant to put up some gaudy numbers for a price tag that is way too low for a player of his caliber.
Deebo Samuel | $6500 | 0.2% | SEA @ SF
Deebo Samuel is averaging 10 targets per game to start the season. This trend continued in Week 3, even with the return of Brandon Aiyuk. The San Francisco 49ers are devoid of a run game and will likely continue to attack their opponents through the air. The Seattle Seahawks are coming to town in Week 4 and the game has a total of 52 and the 9ers are projected to score 27.50 of those points. If they hit that total, expect Samuel to be a big part of it.
Tight End
Travis Kelce | $8100 | 5.9% | KC @ PHI
Travis Kelce ranks 4th out of all skill position players on this slate with 24.3 DK points per game and is priced appropriately so. This play is all about leverage this week. The stud tight end had a “quiet” week against the Los Angeles Chargers and still put up 20.4 points without finding pay dirt. Expect the 20 plus point per game trend to continue in Week 4 by the Philadelphia Eagles as the Kansas City Chiefs look to get back on track against an inferior opponent.
Logan Thomas | $4900 | 0.8% | WAS @ ATL
It has been a slow start to the season for Logan Thomas and the Washington Football Team. Fortunately, the schedule is in their favor this week as they take on the Atlanta Falcons who rank 27th against the tight end position. Thomas does have a touchdown in two of three games this year but the target and yardage totals have been lacking. Curtis Samuel is back this week and should free the former quarterback up for more opportunities in what looks to be a high-scoring affair (47.5 total) and at just $4900 we do not need much to reach value.
Fantasy Data Favorites
In this section, we will give you one play from each position for the week that we like the most. This will be a player that likely will give you a high upside at a lower cost than their counterparts and also come with a low ownership projection. Here you go!
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford | $7000 | 14.9% | ARI @ LAR
The Los Angeles Rams have the highest total of the weekend at 29.50 points and the game has a total of 54.5. Look for fireworks from the whistle and the Arizona Cardinals should be able to keep it close throughout. The connection between Stafford and the aforementioned Cooper Kupp cannot be stopped. The duo should continue to thrive in Week 4 and the price point is tasty with Stafford coming off of a 32.52 point performance against a solid Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense.
Running Back
David Montgomery | $5800 | 15.8% | DET @ CHI
The Detroit Lions have been getting gashed against the run thus far in 2021. The San Franciso 49ers ran roughshod through them in Week 1 and then Aaron Jones lit them up for four touchdowns on Monday Night Football in Week 2. They were able to somewhat keep the Baltimore Ravens at bay last week, but a struggling Chicago Bears offense should look to the run to stabilize things in Week 4. Montgomery has been getting volume early in the season and last week's game can be tossed away from an analysis perspective because they were not able to get anything going from the coin toss. The price is right here and makes him a favorite to bounce back this week.
Wide Receiver
D.J. Moore | $6600 | 11.8% | CAR @ DAL
No Christian McCaffrey and a matchup against a high-powered offense make D.J. Moore a solid play in Week 4. Dallas ranks 27th against the wideout position on the year and Sam Darnold has been consistent post, Adam Gase. Moore has 31 targets through three games and has made Robby Anderson an afterthought. He is also averaging a solid 20.3 DK points per game, good for 10th amongst wide receivers on this slate. The ownership should not scare anyone off either at just 11.8%. Plug Moore in and enjoy the ride.
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth | $3100 | NA% | PIT @ GB
A lot of this play depends on the availability of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson. As of this writing, Johnson does appear to be on track to play but JuJu is less certain. Chase Claypool was also a late addition to the injury report this week. If one or more of the receivers misses the matchup against the Green Bay Packers, then the rookie tight end should be in line for an increase in targets. Freiermuth has seen his targets increase each week of the season and scored his first career touchdown last week against the Bengals. The ownership may be the most appealing part of this play.
Summing It All Up
As we all know, football is unpredictable, we make these picks using the data available to us at fantasydata.com and try to help our readers make educated, thoughtful decisions when creating their DK lineup. If you find this helpful or have any comments, be sure to notate them below. Thank you for reading.
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Jeff Smith
Jeff Smith has been playing fantasy sports (football and baseball) for nearly 20 years. Jeff is a member of the FSWA and a Senior Writer at DLF. Despite growing up in Buffalo Bills country, he is an avid Chicago Bears fan. It was Walter Payton that did it. When not writing or researching fantasy sports or playing DFS, Jeff enjoys spending time with his wife and their Bichon Poo, Daisy. He also likes video games, craft beer, and recently became the owner of his own business.