NFL Salary Cap Update: 3 Teams About To Feel The Squeeze in 2022

NFL Salary Cap Update

Some NFL teams seem to live in a perpetual state of salary cap hell year after year. For as long as I can remember, the New Orleans Saints have had to complete feats of magic every off-season to get into cap compliance. This often makes it nearly impossible to retain young talent, let alone sign impact-free agents. Though the NFL salary cap is expected to see a 14% increase from $182.5 million in 2021 to $208.2 million in 2022, several NFL teams are already over that figure or have less than $10 million in available cap space.

For simplicity purposes, all Salary cap figures will be pulled from Spotrac, and I will refer to the off-season cap, which includes just the top 51 salaried players on every roster while discussing these totals. It’s important to keep a few things in mind. There are multiple ways for teams to shed cap space; they can cut high-priced veterans who do not have guaranteed money. Or they can use the most common method, giving extensions/restructuring current contracts. For example, let’s say the Eagles owe Shane Manila $15 in salary in 2022 on the final year of his contract. They can restructure that deal to add three seasons and add $20 million in total cash to the deal if I agree to call the $15 they owe me in 2022 a signing bonus. That signing bonus is spread over four seasons (2022 and the three additional seasons). 

• Signed – Number of Players Currently under contract per team
• Note: Salay Cap Data will change quickly. The table was updated 2-2-2022

New Orleans Saints

Estimated Cap Space: $76 million Over The Salary Cap

The Saints enter the 2022 off-season with negative cap space and are $76 million over the cap. When you consider that they entered the 2021 off-season $100 million over the cap, the Saints look downright fiscally responsible this year. They are carrying a total of $12.4 million in dead cap space (monies owed to players no longer on the roster). Despite the enormous hole they need to dig out of, the Saints can dig out of it if players such as Michael Thomas, Marshon Lattimore, Ryan Ramczyk, and Alvin Kamara (among many others) are willing to restructure their contracts. They have 18 unrestricted free agents, including left tackle Terron Armstead, free safety Marcus Williams, and Jameis Winston. While it’s certainly possible that all three players re-sign with New Orleans, Armstead is looking at earning $23.9 and Williams $13.5 on the open market. At the same time, Winston is the best free-agent option at quarterback; I doubt the Saints will be able to re-sign these players. 

• Left Tackle Terron Armstead signed a 5 year, $65,000,000 contract with the New Orleans Saints, including a $11,000,000 signing bonus, $38,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $13,000,000. In 2022, Armstead will earn, while carrying a cap hit of $13,000,625 and a dead cap value of $13,000,625.
• Free Safety Marcus Williams signed a 1 year, $10,612,000 contract with the New Orleans Saints, including $10,612,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $10,612,000.

Often you’ll hear someone say that the salary cap doesn’t matter, that it’s easy enough to workaround. Winston’s case disproves this sentiment. Last year the Saints, while trying to remain cap compliant, could only afford to give Winston a three-year contract worth a maximum of $12.5. But two of those years were “voidable” seasons tacked on to the contract to help spread his 2021 cap hit. Voidable years are dummy seasons added to a contract for cap purposes. In Winston’s case, he will count $3 million against the Saints cap space in 2022 and $1.5 million in 2023, despite not being signed to the Saints roster. This is the drawback to adding voidable years and restructuring contracts, you do lower the money charged to your cap for this year, but that bill always comes due. For example, if the Saints wanted to save some cap space and go to Ryan Ramczyk, who carries a $23 million cap hit for 2022, and he doesn’t want to restructure his deal, there’s nothing the Saints can do. They can’t release or trade him because his dead cap hit would then be $37.7 million in 2022 and another $14.7 million in 2023. 

2022 Impact

Three players/positions will be most affected by the Saints precarious cap situation. 

• Jameis Winston: Not only is Jameis Winston a free agent, but several other factors could preclude Winston’s return to New Orleans. Their cap situation will limit the type of contact they can offer him. Starting left tackle Terron Armstead is a free agent who will command a massive contract on the free agency market, likely with another team. Deonte Harris (RFA) Tre’quan Smith (UFA) are free agents, and the Saints could be forced to move on from Michael Thomas as well.
• Alvin Kamara: Jameis Winston leaving New Orleans would hinder Kamara’s continued fantasy success. Kamara scored 3.5 fewer fantasy points per game in games started by quarterbacks other than Winston in 2021. He also could be without the starting left tackle from the 2021 roster. When you consider that Kamara will also be 27 years old next year, coming off one of his most inefficient seasons and dealing with a new offensive play-caller Kamara is a player I will be passing on early in drafts in 2022. 
• Michael Thomas: Thomas is one of many players the Saints will likely approach to restructure their contract. Thomas carries a $24.7 million 2022 cap hit, and the Saints could save over $13 million if he is traded or cut after June 1st if he doesn’t wish to restructure his deal. From a fantasy perspective, if Thomas were to move to another team, that would improve his fantasy outlook based on what I fully expect to be a down season (or two) for the New Orleans offense. 

Green Bay Packers 

Estimated Cap Space: $46.3 million Over The Salary Cap

The Packers have the second least available cap space in the NFL but can get under the cap without as much pain as New Orleans. Just cutting linebacker Za’Darius Smith and wide receiver Randall Cobb would save the Packers $22 million in cap space in 2022, creating nearly half of the cap space they need. Both players are grossly overpaid, and it’s almost certain the Packers will move on from both players. They will also likely look to extend Jaire Alexander to lower his 2022 cap hit of $13 million, and Preston Smith will almost certainly get cut or a restructured deal to reduce his $19.7 million cap hit. While being $46.3 million over the salary cap is not great, the Packers should be able to create plenty of cap space. 

2022 Impact

Everything starts with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. That will affect how the Packers move forward in every aspect of their roster. For fantasy purposes, three players will be most impacted by the Packers cap situation, which is completely dependent on Rodgers. 

• Aaron Rodgers: The elephant in the room is what happens with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers carries a cap hit of $46.6 million and a dead cap hit of $26.8 million. Rodgers has made it well known that he is contemplating his future, whether that’s retirement, requesting a trade, or returning to Green Bay. Whichever option he chooses will have giant ramifications on how the Packers move forward with their roster. No matter the outcome, there is zero chance that Rodgers will account for such a massive cap hit in 2022. The Packers will either sign him to another contract, and he’ll play in Green Bay, or they’ll work out a sign and trade deal with another team (Denver!) that lowers his cap hit for 2022 while likely carrying some dead money over to 2023. Because Jordan Love is still on a rookie, cost-controlled contract, even swallowing a massive dead cap hit in 2022 or 2023 for Rodgers wouldn’t impede the Packers ability to dabble in the free agency market. Rodgers is a locked-in QB1 in 2022, no matter where he plays, while Love would make for an interesting late-round dart in start one QB leagues. 

• Davante Adams: The Packers also have a decision to make regarding Davante Adams, who is an unrestricted free agent. The Packers could franchise tag him, which would set his 2022 salary (and cap hit) at $20.1 (though he reportedly wants $30 million a year). Adams isn’t the only free agent wide receiver in Green Bay. Marquez Valdes-Scantling also enters free agency, meaning there is a universe that exists where Allen Lazard is the Packers WR1 in 2022. Adams is a locked-in WR1 no matter where he lands, no matter who is throwing passes to him, MVS and Lazard are both late-round dart throws, assuming Adams moves on to another team. 

Davante Adams reportedly seeking contract near $30 million per year https://t.co/O87sm1YiRP #NFL #GreenBayPackers

— Sportsnaut (@Sportsnaut) January 29, 2022

• Aaron Jones/A.J. Dillon: If Rodgers and Adams move on, look for the Packers to lean heavily on their rushing attack in 2022. Dillon already started to cut into Jones workshare in 2021, and that will continue in 2022 regardless of how the Adams and Rodgers situations are resolved. If they move on, Dillon could be looking at a workload of 250-275 touches in 2022, putting him in contention for a low-end RB1 season. 

Dallas Cowboys 

Estimated Cap Space: $21.1 million Over The Salary Cap

By now, I think you understand while being $21.1 over the salary cap sounds daunting; it’s truly not that difficult to manage. Just restructuring/extending Amari Cooper and DeMarcus Lawrence, who account for a combined $49 million in 2022 cap space, could get the Cowboys under the salary cap. Though unlikely, the Cowboys could also approach Ezekiel Elliott about restructuring his deal, as he carries a cap hit of $30 million for 2022. That is unlikely, though, because the Cowboys can move on from Elliott’s contract after this upcoming season and save $12.4 million in cap space in 2023. The Cowboys are in a good position, with the only offensive skill position starters ready to hit free agency being Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup.

2022 Impact

The Cowboys situation is truly not bad. They can largely base decisions based on football reasons instead of salary cap concerns, but that does still leave them with a couple of decisions to make. 

• Dalton Schultz: Spotrac calculates Schultz’s market value as $12.6 on the open market. The Cowboys might decide that cost is too high considering they are already over the cap, though again, they can easily get under the cap and have an adequate (and cheaper) replacement on the roster in Blake Jarwin. They could also cut Jarwin and save $3.8 in cap space that could be then reallocated to resigning Schultz. Schultz is a TE1 if he returns to Dallas or lands on another roster. It’s doubtful Schultz would land on another team with the target competition to rival CeeDee Lamb, Cooper, Michael Gallup, and the Cowboys running backs. If he returns to Dallas, keep an eye on what happens with Gallup. Schultz saw a target share increase of 3.9% in games that he played without Gallup over the past two seasons. 
• Michael Gallup: Before tearing his ACL in Week 17, Gallup was estimated to be looking at an $11 million a season payday in free agency. Tearing his ACL so late in the 2021 season likely ensures Gallup returns to the Cowboys on a modest one-year prove-it contract. 
• Amari Cooper: There have been rumblings that the Cowboys might look to cut Cooper after Jerry Jones voiced his displeasure with Cooper’s 2021 performance. It seems highly unlikely that Dallas cuts Cooper, but in the outside chance that they do, that would have to elevate Lamb into WR1 conversations.  

I highlighted the three teams with the least amount of cap space, but there is a common theme you should watch for as it pertains to the salary cap in general. If a team has their franchise quarterback or a cost-controlled one on a rookie deal, the cap is truly never a hindrance. Where things get especially hairy are situations like New Orleans, where they have no starting quarterback on the roster and are well over the cap. In general, the fantasy impact is greater on players who already have question marks attached to them, like Michael Thomas. The Saints might decide that it’s time for a rebuild, and carrying a 29-year-old receiver with a $24.7 million cap hit is not the best allocation of resources. If Thomas were three younger, and not coming off of two injury-plagued non-productive seasons the Saints would have no issues with his cap hit. In short, a team’s salary cap is something that can be managed through various machinations in most cases.