2024 MLB Mock Draft: Predicting the Top 10 Picks
The 2024 MLB draft is coming up on Sunday, July 14 to lead into the week of All-Star festivities. Three first-round selections from last year are already making contributions to their respective MLB clubs: Paul Skenes for the Pirates, Wyatt Langford for the Rangers, and Nolan Schanuel for the Angels. There is another exciting new crop of players for this year’s draft, and it will be fun to see how it all shakes out. Here’s my best guess at how the first 10 picks of the draft will go.
Guardians: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
Travis Bazzana is one of the best pure hitters in the draft class, slashing .407/.568/.911 with 28 home runs and 16 stolen bases this past season at Oregon State. He won the Cape Cod League MVP award in 2023 and is an exceptional all-around player with no clear holes in his game. The biggest question surrounding this pick for Cleveland is if they want to save money to use on talent later in the draft by taking someone they can pay under slot. If that’s the case, the clear choice is JJ Wetherholt, a middle infielder out of West Virginia who is a very similar player to Bazzana. I ultimately think the Guardians will side with talent over money, and go with Bazzana.
Alternate choice: JJ Wetherholt
Reds: Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia
Charlie Condon is considered by many to be the most talented player in the draft but will come at a higher price tag than Bazzana and Wetherholt, which will likely cause the Guardians to pass on him with the first pick. He has some of the best raw power in the draft class thanks to his massive 6’6 frame, mashing 37 homers with a .433 batting average this spring. He does have some concerns with chasing pitches and whiffing too often, but his upside is too much to pass up on. I don’t think there’s any chance the Reds let him fall any farther than second overall.
Alternate choice: Jac Caglianone
Rockies: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
Chase Burns is the most electric pitcher in the draft, featuring a 102 mph fastball and a truly elite slider. His curveball is also plus pitch, and it’s easy to imagine him as a frontline major league starter someday. He will need to learn how to command his fastball better at the next level, but he and Hagen Smith are the clear top two pitchers available in the draft. The Rockies could opt for an elite college bat like Jac Caglianone, but I think they will follow up their pick of Chase Dollander last year with another high-end college pitcher this year. Pitching has always been a problem for the Rockies, with Coors Field driving away potential free agents from wanting to sign. I think they are committed to fixing that problem through the draft, and you can’t go wrong with Chase Burns in this spot.
Alternate choice: Jac Caglianone
Athletics: Jac Caglianone, 1B/ LHP, Florida
This leaves the Athletics with Caglianone, who is a two-way player but best known for his hitting. He stands tall at 6’5 with massive power from the left side of the plate and is very aggressive, which can lead to too much chasing out of the zone at times. He is a good pitcher too, but not quite first-round caliber, so the assumption is he will be a full-time hitter in the pros. He would be a great boost to an Athletic’s farm system that lacks talent overall.
Alternate choice: Braden Montgomery
White Sox: JJ Wetherholt, SS/2B, West Virginia
If he isn’t taken first overall by the Guardians, the highest I can imagine Wetherholt going is in this spot, fifth overall to the White Sox. As I mentioned earlier, he is a slightly worse version of Travis Bazzana due to less raw power and health risks. He dealt with a hamstring injury that caused him to miss a lot of time in his most recent season, which has bumped him down the draft board. Still, he has a great hit tool with elite bat-to-ball skills and plus speed that makes him a real threat on the basepaths. I think the White Sox would love to make him the second half of their middle infield of the future, to pair with current prospect Colson Montgomery.
Alternate choice: Konnor Griffin
Royals: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
The Royals would have to make the tough choice between hitting and pitching at this spot, and I think they will go with the clear-cut best available pitcher, Hagen Smith. The lefty just won the SEC Pitcher of the Year award with a 2.09 ERA and 161 strikeouts in 84 innings. He sits 94-97 with his fastball but can top out at 100, and also features an an elite slider and a splitter that’s a work in progress. Smith and Chase Burns are truly in a tier of their own among pitching prospects in this draft class, both with the clear stuff to one day be frontline starters.
Alternate choice: Bryce Rainer
Cardinals: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake High School (CA)
I think Hagen Smith would be a slam-dunk pick for the Cardinals if he falls to this spot, but in this hypothetical, they would have barely missed out to the Royals a pick earlier. They would be left with a variety of options, having a choice between a fast-track college bat like Kurtz or Montgomery, or a high-upside high schooler such as Rainer or Griffin. I could see them going in any one of those directions, but Bryce Rainer will be my pick here. Technically a two-way player, his value as a hitter has far surpassed his pitching ability. He has the potential to be a future gold glove defender at shortstop and has shown the ability to make consistent hard contact to all fields.
Alternate choice: Braden Montgomery
Angels: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
The Angels have developed a reputation for drafting polished college bats that will fly through the minors quickly, the most recent being Nolan Schanuel last season. Keeping with that theme, Braden Montgomery would be a perfect fit. He slashed .322/.454/.733 with 27 home runs this spring, and looked on path to be a potential top 5 pick. Unfortunately, he suffered a broken ankle in early June, and it may hurt his draft stock slightly. If he does slide down the board, getting this level of college bat at 8th overall seems like a no-brainer for the Angels.
Alternate choice: Konnor Griffin
Pirates: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
The other premier college bat left would be Nick Kurtz, who entered the season as a potential candidate to go first overall. He dealt with a shoulder injury and a prolonged cold stretch to begin the year but finished strong to end the season with a .307/.532/.756 slash line with 22 home runs in 55 games. He is known for his elite power and great eye at the plate, as he led all of D1 in walks. He is one of the most complete hitters in the draft, with his only downsides being his speed and the fact that he plays first base. There hasn’t been a great track record for first-round college first-basemen, creating a wide array of outcomes as to where Kurtz could be drafted. I could see him going as early as sixth overall to the Royals if they don’t care about the limited defensive positioning.
Alternate choice: Konnor Griffin
Nationals: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep (MS)
You may have noticed that I’ve listed Konnor Griffin as the alternate choice for three picks so far, and here I finally have him going to the Nationals at pick 10. He is the other premier high schooler besides Rainer, and it really comes down to which team wants to take the chance on the toolsy high school kid over a more established college player. He won the Gatorade Player of the Year this spring, and his pure athleticism is off the charts. He stands at 6’4 with 60-grade power and 65-grade speed and would be a plus defender at center field or shortstop. He has some work to do to improve his swing, but when judging on overall peak upside, he may have the most of anyone in this class. I think the Nationals would be thrilled to get him with this pick, and I think he could potentially go as high as fifth overall to the White Sox if they want a high-ceiling pick instead of the high floor of Wetherholt.
Alternate choice: Trey Yesavage
