As I mentioned when discussing NL breakout candidates, the pitching landscape this year provides some surefire studs as well as several potential breakout players. Each of the players below has shown flashes that make them worth the risk come draft time. There is also very little risk to these players, all of whom have an ADP that makes drafting them much easier. Because of that, every single name I mention is capable of letting you down, but if that happens the investment you made in the first place will be so low that cutting your losses would not be a hard choice. But if they hit and the breakout does happen they will provide an advantage your opponents are missing. These are not the only players that could break out, but I do think they are the most likely.
Kutter Crawford, Boston Red Sox
While Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford had a less-than-stellar run back in 2022, he improved in 2023. Last season Crawford struck out 135 batters in 129.1 IP, and became a reliable option for Boston, especially in the second half of the season. In that span, Crawford struck out 77 batters over 68 frames. Hitters struggled to pick up Crawford and his short arm action. His four-seamer was of particular difficulty for his opponents. This, combined with his solid breaking ball and cutter created plenty of strikeouts and made it hard for opponents to make good contact. With a late-round ADP, Crawford is a great low-risk, high-reward option that could help keep squads competitive throughout the season. At just 27 years old, there is room for improvement, and if that improvement happens in 2024, managers will be glad they drafted him. Make sure he’s on your radar.
Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners
2023 did not provide much opportunity for Mariners starter Bryan Woo to shine. Still, in just 87.2 IP Woo managed to stake his claim as one of the best young starters in baseball. With three fastballs (a four-seamer, two-seamer, and cutter) in his arsenal, along with an effective slider, Woo was electric last year. His four-seamer was particularly impactful. From the moment he made his debut through the end of the season, Woo recorded 104 strikeouts off that pitch which ended up being 15th in the league. Woo often paired his four-seamer with a ridiculous slider to devastating effect. If, as is expected, his number of innings goes up, Woo could be a key piece of the Mariners’ success, making him a player to keep an eye on come draft time.
Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays
2023 had its share of ups and downs for Rays starter Taj Bradley, and with the expectations being sky-high there’s no other way to characterize his season than as a disappointment. But, as someone who will be just 23 years old when the 2024 season starts, much of his lack of success can be attributed to being rushed into a starting role. While Bradley did win his first three outings after debuting on April 12th, it became apparent quickly that he was an unpolished prospect. This led to him struggling through much of the season and even being sent back down to AAA in August. His 5.59 ERA makes it clear that he’s a work in progress, especially when it comes to giving up the long ball. Bradley allowed 23 home runs in just 104.2 innings. Improving in this important aspect of his game could be the key to Bradley succeeding or failing in 2024. Tyler Glasnow is gone, so there is a need for someone to step up and, at least in part, absorb the impact of that loss. If Bradley can gain more confidence, show more command on the mound, and keep the ball in play, 2024 could be a much more productive season than 2023.
Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles
After a forgettable 2022 season that saw Kyle Bradish post a 4.90 ERA in 117.2 IP, the 27-year-old showed vast improvement in 2023. Last year Bradish became the ace the Orioles were hoping he would be leading them to their first AL East win for the first time in almost ten years. Bradish had 30 starts, pitching 168.2 innings. Over that span, he had a 12-7 W-L record, 2.83 ERA, and 168 Ks. It’s hard to imagine Bradish improving upon that ERA, but it’s reasonable to believe that as he continues to develop he will be able to keep it closer to 3.00 than 4.00. It’s encouraging that, during the 2023 season, Bradish and the Orioles seemed to figure out what works for him and what doesn’t. Throughout the first half of the season, his fastball was very disappointing. He and the team took notice and cut its usage almost in half which led to major improvement in the second half of the season. This isn’t necessarily a sign of things to come, but the correlation is hard to overlook. As part of a very good Orioles offense, it’s not difficult to imagine Bradish will get more wins than he had in 2023.
Zach Eflin, Tampa Bay Rays
In his first season in Tampa Bay, Eflin made 31 starts with 177.2 IP (a major improvement after managing just 182.1 IP over the previous two seasons.) These 31 starts led to a 16-8 W-L record, 3.50 ERA, and 186 Ks (all career bests.) Eflin is currently being drafted as an SP3 providing very little risk in drafting him. His projected innings total in 2024 falls somewhere between 148.0 IP and 184.0 IP, so clearly the confidence in him varies. This might be attributable to some hesitancy in drafting a player who has dealt with some back and knee issues in the past. But if he can again stay healthy like he did last year, he should be able to hit 180 IP. If that happens he could easily match last year’s numbers and has a good shot of surpassing them.
