Amari Rodgers Fantasy
Coming out of Knoxville Catholic High School, 4-star wide receiver recruit Amari Rodgers was named Mr. Football in Tennessee both his Junior and Senior seasons. Originally planning to follow in his father’s footsteps at USC, Rodgers flipped his commitment and chose Clemson University instead in 2017. Rodgers played for 4 years at Clemson University– where he was part of the 2018 College Football Playoff Championship Team. While he underwhelmed at Clemson his first three seasons as an underneath receiving option, Rodgers broke out in 2020 amassing 1,020 receiving yards for 77 receptions and 102 targets from the #1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Rookie Draft, Trevor Lawrence. Granted, the absence of Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross paved the way for Rodgers to step up into a larger role for the Tigers’ offense. Drafted and traded up for by the Green Bay Packers in the 3rd round, Rodgers immediately steps into an offense desperate for play-making wide receivers.
Skill Set
Rodgers measures in at 5’10” and 212 lbs. His most notable attribute is strength. At his Pro Day, Rodgers put up 24 Bench Press Reps, good for a 99th percentile rating. PFF rated Rodgers offensive blocking higher than blocking Tight Ends Tommy Tremble or Luke Farrell from this rookie class. He tied for 7th among collegiate wide receivers in forced missed tackles. While he’s not the fastest receiver, only running a 4.51 40 yard dash (42nd percentile), Rodgers does possess straight-line speed which can create mismatches. A YAC monster from the slot, only DeVonta Smith had more yards than Rodgers after the catch among qualified collegiate WRs in 2020. He’s been a reliable receiver in college and plays better than his 5th percentile catch radius suggests. The limitations of his size and slot role hampered his college contested catch rate (14th percentile), which does not bode well for making difficult catches against pro-level defenders. Rodgers will need to increase both the complexity and variety of his route tree to find open space on the field.
Landing Spot
As of May 13th, 2021, Amari Rodgers slots in 4th on the depth chart behind Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. While chaos swirls around the Packers organization with the latest Aaron Rodgers drama, the team did address the wide receiver position with one of the strongest slot options in the draft. Adams, Lazard, and Valdes-Scantling all had at least 148 slot snaps, but none had more than 164. Amari Rodgers’s presence puts a stop to the Packers slot-by-committee and instead may force Green Bay to rotate Lazard and Valdes-Scantling opposite Davante Adams. Green Bay Packers GM Brian Gutekunst said as much when speaking about Amari Rodgers’ versatility:
“He fills so many holes for us. That’s one of the reasons why we traded up for him. Not only as a punt returner and slot receiver but the creativity that Matt has within his offense. The jet sweeps, and screens.”
And from a real NFL perspective, the Packers struggled to find anything in the kick or punt return game last season with Tyler Ervin, Darrius Shepherd, Malik Taylor, and veteran Tavon Austin rotating on kickoffs or punting situations. The Packers ranked 29th in the NFL in PFF Special Team grades; Amari Rodgers brings strength and reliable hands to a needed position. We could see Amari Rodgers on the field immediately for special teams but may have a slow start to earn receiving snaps.
Fantasy Impact
Per FantasyData’s 2021 Season Projections as of May 13th 2021, Amari Rodgers comes in at 44 receptions on 71 targets for 567 yards and about 4 TDs. These projections put him at about 7.4 PPR fantasy points per game (126.56 over the season), ranking him as WR87 overall entering the season. Amari Rodgers projects for fewer fantasy points than fellow teammates Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, as well as fewer than Tight End Robert Tonyan.
In short, Amari Rodgers is not a short-term fantasy wide receiver option. He may chip away fantasy value from Robert Tonyan’s low aDOT receptions, but Davante Adams’ target share is safe as long as the black cloud over Aaron Rodgers’ return dissipates. If Aaron Rodgers leaves the Packers before the start of the 2021 football season, this whole Green Bay offense will be impossible to project accurately. At this point, Davante Adams has hinted as much with this Tweet:
Gotta appreciate what u got while ya got it!
— Davante Adams (@tae15adams) May 3, 2021
Dynasty Value
As for Amari Rodgers’s long-term value, Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, Devin Funchess, Allen Lazard, and Robert Tonyan are all free agents in 2022, leaving Rodgers with a wide-open path to targets for the future. Especially if Adams walks (which may happen if Aaron Rodgers is not with the team in 2021 or beyond), Amari Rodgers is a high-floor slot option for the Packers. Amari Rodgers’ career ceiling could be Jamison Crowder, Cole Beasley, Tyler Boyd with the peppering of targets out of the slot, but limited touchdown upside given his size, catch-radius, and contested catch rate. However, Rodgers’ comps do include Ty Montgomery and Lynn Bowden, both of whom provide uninspiring rookie fantasy campaigns, and profile as both receiving and rushing gadget options. Per FantasyData’s Rookie ADP, Amari Rodgers is being drafted outside the top 16 of rookie wide receivers.
Amari Rodgers most likely develops into a better real-life football player than a week-to-week fantasy option throughout his NFL career.
